France 2012: the official thread

[Colbert]

Make your own France Forte poster

[Colbert]

Why I think the final will be MLP - Hollande

1-left, polls after polls, is again poorly upon 40% (after TEN years of impaired balance of UMP'rule)

2-consequently, the total of the non-left (personnaly, I don't trust there's something like "right" to exist) would be 56/58 %

3-the non-right have 3 candidates : bayrou, sarkozly, MLP

4-A middle ratio by 58 for the 3 give 19% for each one.

5- It can be reasonnable to think than bayrou will have a score inferior than the two others

6-In 2007, Sarko take all he can take from JMLP's voters.

7-The strong base of Sarko are the oldest people

8-Since 2007, demographically, 5 millions of them had died

9-Hollande, as Bayrou, as MLP, as Mélenchon can easily answer, for each proposal of Sarko : why did'nt had you made it before, cause UMP is on charge since ten years

10-If we admitt than Bayrou will have 12 % , that's 46/44% for MLP and Sarko

11-Consequently, a ratio of 22/23 % for each one.

12-In 2007, Sarko was full, with 31,18%. Le Pen (JM) was at 10.44. I doubt that Nihous and Villiers' voters (at least for the first round) want to vote for Sarkozy. So imagine that JMLP minimal base was 10.44+2.23+1.15 = 13.82

13-At least 8% of the 2007's sarko vote came from 2002' megret/JMLP vote.

14-Basically, Sarko may be now at 23.18, and MLP at 21.82

15-thus, the final will be extremely close for each one, and Hollande, with his (apparent) moderate speech, have no reasons to afraid right-wing voters and make them vote "utile" (vote UMP, so).

16-At those 15 points, I must add the crisis fact. Sarkozy's solutions are not very different to the Hollande's ones. So, a real economic choice would be between Hollande and MLP (could you imagine to be on fire for a Hollande-Sarko TV debate?

17-In conclusion, I think the polls are wrong (not in a falsifcation way but in a mistake way) and than the final will oppose Hollande to MLP.

bonus track 18^^ : Hollande will win easily, but the difficulty of the left would be to win the legislative elections (wich is the key for ruling, contrary to apparences)

[Colbert]

There is no evidence suggesting that polls are underestimating Le Pen support. It is doubtful that people are ashamed of admitting their support for the FN as it was in the past, and even then pollster are still apllying some corrections. While nobody can say how this will end up, there's no reasons to assume polls are wrong.

that's not the essential point of my tentative of analysis :tongue:

[Colbert]

based on what I said on my previous post, yes.

[Colbert]

is it possible to open poll thread in "international elections" ? (not about official poll, but about votes of member of the atlasforum)

[Colbert]

is it possible to open poll thread in "international elections" ? (not about official poll, but about votes of member of the atlasforum)

I think it should go to "International general discussion", per the forum's conventions.

thank you

[Colbert]

it's done :

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=150286.0

[Colbert]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

I concur.

me too (except if he lose in semifinals)

[Colbert]

May France be red.

no.


All lefts, include green, stay at the very low level of 40 % in 1995, 2002, 2007 and, probably, 2012

[Colbert]

Mélenchon under the 10% bar. I dream to see the 22 april the 5 candidates between 15 and 19%

[Colbert]

carfeful : this note is a google translation. Apologize by advance for this ugly english


Tonight, in the daily IFOP poll : 44% total left

this figure seems both very low, after 10 years of Sarkozyism, and very high, given the catastrophic results of the left all presidential period except 74-88


Holland should be the candidate's usual PS score between 22 and 25%

remains between 18 and 23% for the rest of the left according to the two hypotheses (holland at 22 or 25, left at 40 or 45)


if bayrou remains at 10, still 50% between Sarko, MLP and dupont.

10 of 30 pts sarko of 2007 came from the EXD. It seems for now to have succeeded once again to win them over, leaving MLP to 20 or 15 (assuming non-left at 60 or 55)

for Sarko, if the left are 45, it drops to 25.

If 50% of Sarko-Frontists the 2007 MLP return home, it gives sarko 25 (40% left) or sarko 20 (45% left), and MLP 20 (40% left) or 25 (45% left)



good, then I would not consider the electronic machines to vote, deubeulou-like, which are obviously there to defraud.


Another hypothesis, a collapse of Holland and rising méluche. Let 5% of the debris left from the left (artaud, Poutou, joly) was either 40 or 35% to be divided between the two candidates.

The PS is the party scores the most volatile electoral history. So we could hypothetically have 20/20 between the two, or even 25-15 advantage Mélenchon, but I doubt it anyway.


In short, bayrou seems out of the game in 2007, he took advantage of the massive rejection of royal from a lot of people left and  rejection of Sarko's right-handed speech.

But the other four can qualify. Only final not: Holland vs Mélenchon.

[Colbert]

Can you post it in French?

ce soir, dans le sondage quotidien de l'IFOP-MEDEF, total gauches 44%

ce chiffre me semble à la fois très faible, après 10 ans de sarkozysme, et bien haut, étant donné les résultats catastrophiques des gauches à toutes les présidentielles, période 74-88 exceptée


hollande devrait faire le score habituel du candidat PS, entre 22 et 25%

reste entre 18 et 23% pour le reste des gauches selon les deux hypothèses (hollande à 22 ou 25, gauches à 40 ou 45)


si bayrou reste à 10, reste 50 % entre sarko, MLP et dupont.

10 des 30 pts de sarko de 2007 venaient de l'EXD. Il semble pour le moment avoir réussi une fois de plus à les séduire, ce qui laisse MLP à 20 ou 15 (hypothèse non-gauches à 60 ou à 55)

pour sarko, si les gauches font 45, ça tombe à 25.

Si 50 % des sarko-frontistes de 2007 reviennent chez MLP, ça donne sarko 25 (gauches à 40%) ou sarko 20 (gauches à 45%), et MLP 20 (gauches à 40%) ou 25 (gauches à 45%)



bon, là, je tiens pas compte des machines électroniques à voter, deubeulou-like, qui sont évidemment là pour frauder.


Autre hypothèse, un effrondrement de hollande et une montée de méluche. Laissons 5 % aux débris de la gauche de la gauche (artaud, poutou, joly), on a soit 40 soit 35 % à se partager entre les deux candidats.

Le PS est le parti aux scores les plus instables de l'histoire électorale. Donc on pourrait hypothétiquement avoir 20/20 entre les deux, voire 25-15 avantage mélenchon, mais ça m'étonnerait quand même.


Bref, bayrou me semble out du jeu. En 2007, il avait profité du rejet massif de royal de la part d'un bon nombre de gens de gauche et du rejet du discours droitier de sarko.

Mais les 4 autres peuvent se qualifier. Seule finale impossible : hollande vs mélenchon.

[Colbert]

polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?

[Colbert]

polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?

I don't know where you get this idea from, but it isn't backed by any data. Sarko is gonna finish 10+ points higher than Le Pen unless something changes dramatically.

well...We'll see sunday (sunday after 20h for me, I don't want to know before via twitter or facebook, i wanna the excitation of the last minute before 20:00 )

[Colbert]

When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.

i'm not sure of that. Left don't have majority on the country. If there is a poor turnout, this will be the sign than bayrou and marine voters stay home

if there is a strong turnout, the result would be close (but with a hollandist victory whatever)

[Colbert]

i had already made a map of total left vs right without bayrou :





and there is a map total left without total non-left (from bayrou to marine)





this map is not significative for the non-left, but it is for the left

[Colbert]

i'll made it just now for you, wait a sec

[Colbert]

Here it is :

red : absolute majority hollande-mélenchon
blue : absolute majority sarkozy-MLP

[Colbert]

same map, but with joly with left, and NDA with right

[Colbert]

centre is pretty weak.


In my opinion, this election is a referendum anti-sarko more than other thing