TX Governor's Mansion 2022: Abbott 3rd term

[LoneStarDem]

According to Gromer Jeffers of the Dallas Morning News & several aides close to TX Governor Greg Abbott (R), it looks like Abbott will be looking to stay in the TX Governor's Mansion even longer by January 19th, 2027.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2019/01/15/will-greg-abbott-back-third-term-national-aspirations

If successful (he's never lost an election at all since 1992), Abbott would become the 5th TX Governor since Shivers, Daniel, Connally & Perry to win 3rd terms.

Plus, he's the most popular Governor in the history of the Lone Star State.

[LoneStarDem]

If Abbott was not disabled he would be a 2024 or 2028 contender; I see him as a future Republican AG.

Abbott's turned down those opportunities to focus on the Lone Star State.

[LoneStarDem]

If Abbott was not disabled he would be a 2024 or 2028 contender; I see him as a future Republican AG.

Putting aside my partisan hack nature for a second, Abbot isn't going to let that stop him at all. Abbott could very well run in 2024.

Anyway, the entire TX-GOP list of officials are groaning in frustration at this story. TX GOP officials are all waiting for Abbott to move on so they can move up. It's probably overall the best thing that could happen to the party as Abbott is WAY popular than, say, Patrick or Paxton or George P. Bush, who would be the primary candidates for the next governor's race if Abbott were going away.

I still think Abbott wins 3rd term in 2022, by a bigger landslide victory (20 percentage points).

As for TX Commissioner of the General Land Office George Prescott Bush (R): I can see him going for LG in 2022, then running for the TX Governor's Mansion in 2026 because I can't see Patrick sticking around as LG much longer due to his age (he'll be 72 when his 2nd term as LG ends on January 17th, 2023).

[LoneStarDem]

Abbot certainly has the money and for now at least the popularity to stay Governor as long as he wants. Some massive scandal or a Democratic mega tsunami in Texas could possibly change that, but Abbot is easily the safest of all the big name statewide officials.

Note that Perry was deeply despised & unpopular, yet he managed to stay in the TX Governor's Mansion for 14 years.

[LoneStarDem]

This probably isn't a good idea.

Not in terms of my personal preferences, since I never voted for him to begin with.

But one of the contributing factors to how wacky and clown car-ish the 2014 GOP primaries in Texas were was the fact that Rick Perry stayed in office too long and created a pileup of lower officeholders who were fed up with waiting to move up to new positions.

If Abbott is going to stay, that leaves nowhere for Dan Patrick to go, and that could be problematic.

Out of interest, what are the problems caused by boxing Patrick into the Liuetenant Governor's office? Is it that it prevents other officials (George P. Bush etc) from moving up the totem pole?

They better hope Cruz gets appointed to SCOTUS, so that they can battle for his US Senate seat.

[LoneStarDem]

This probably isn't a good idea.

Not in terms of my personal preferences, since I never voted for him to begin with.

But one of the contributing factors to how wacky and clown car-ish the 2014 GOP primaries in Texas were was the fact that Rick Perry stayed in office too long and created a pileup of lower officeholders who were fed up with waiting to move up to new positions.

If Abbott is going to stay, that leaves nowhere for Dan Patrick to go, and that could be problematic.

Out of interest, what are the problems caused by boxing Patrick into the Liuetenant Governor's office? Is it that it prevents other officials (George P. Bush etc) from moving up the totem pole?

Moving up the totem pole to what?

I think after the 2018 elections, the TX GOP is in this weird state where it's dominant enough to generally expect to win a given statewide office election, but not dominant enough that regularly contested primaries can become a thing the way they were for Texas Democrats prior to the 1960s.

Dan Patrick being boxed in to the lieutenant governorship is a problem because, for starters, he's terrible at the job. And I don't mean that from an ideological perspective. He's needlessly pissed off senators from his own party and started off the legislative session by picking a fight with the most senior Republican in the chamber. If the Republicans' majority in the state senate narrows after 2020, it leaves less room for his bull-in-a-china-shop approach to the job.

If Abbott doesn't retire, nobody can "move up" without primarying someone else.

I get that Patrick is a terrible LG, and that the office has outsized power in Texas. But given the state still has a strong R lean (don’t @ me people, we can talk once a dem candidate wins statewide), isn’t it better to keep him in that office, rather than risk Governor Patrick? If he stays in office, isn’t he likely to invite a primary challenge eventually?

The last time somebody launched a primary challenge against an incumbent Governor down here in 2010..... it backfired on that challenger.

Abbott looks like he's going to win 3rd term & he's super popular.