Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[dead0man]

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good read on the new general in charge for Russia

Some 'loud thinking' about what can Ukraine - and all of us as 'interested observers' - expect from Army General Dvornikov in regards of the RFA operations in Ukraine?
1.) Let me start with assessing him the way the mass of Western experts is going to do. The first thing you're going to get to hear about Dvornikov in the Western media is that, he's got 'combat experience from Syria'.
Frankly (as always) this is nonsense. Dvornikov hasn't got any kind of first hand combat experience, whatsoever. He never got anywhere within 40 kilometres from the frontline.
2.) Actually, 
- from August 2015 unitl July 2016, Colonel-General Dvornikov was the first commander of the Group of Russian Forces in the Syrian Arab Republic (GRF).
- In that function, Dvornikov was responsible for all the planning for initial Russian and allied operations against the Syrian insurgency in northern Latakia, northern Hama, and southern Idlib provinces (NOT against the Daesh - i.e. IS/ISIS/ISIL/IGIL: as of 2015-2016, the Daesh was nowhere within 100+ km of Russian positions in Syria).
- Moreover, and in cooperation with the GRF Training Mission to Syrian Arab Army (led by Major-General Sevryukov as of August 2015 - August 2016), Dvornikov was responsible for the first attempt to re-constitute the Syrian Arab Army (as about why was there a need to re-constitute the same... that's a longer story, where I can only advise the reading of the book Moscow's Game of Poker, see: https://www.helion.co.uk/.../moscows-game-of-poker...).
3.) What did Dvornikov and Severyukov do and how did they command?

it goes on like this

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1514766062771875851?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...So, according to Russia, Ukraine didn't sink the ship, it was an accident.  But also, it's Ukraine's fault that it sank and they need to punished for it, this is an act of war!


I'm interested to hear Woody's take.

[dead0man]

Remember last nights strike against Kiev?

Guess it was a logical target, he needs something to sell as "retribution" for the massive loss of Moskva.

A Ukrainian military factory outside Kyiv that produced missiles allegedly used to hit Russia's Moskva warship was partly destroyed by overnight Russian strikes, an AFP journalist at the scene saw Friday.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220415-russian-strike-hits-missile-unit-outside-kyiv-afp

 One has to frankly wonder why Russia hasn't previously already gone for such an obvious military target. Unless they are seriously low on missiles missiles and have to use them  So sparingly only for revenge raids like this?

as Dingo Joe alluded to, apparently the Russians would rather use their few missiles on:lady hospitals, shelters full of women and children, apartment buildings and train stations than on legitimate military targets

[dead0man]

good article from a former US Commander in Europe

The Ukrainian Training Center at Yavoriv also saw massive changes starting in 2014, likely driven as much by the Russian invasion of Crimea and the Donbas as by Vorobyov’s vision. In April 2015, elements of the U.S. 173rd Airborne Brigade stationed in Italy again deployed to Yavoriv and established an ongoing operational program called “Fearless Guardian.” The program was progressive, training everything from individual soldier skills to battalion-level operations, all based on lessons learned from the eastern and southern Ukrainian combat zones. The increasing energy at Yavoriv showed the need for a permanent enhanced training center, modeled after the U.S. Army’s training programs in the United States and Germany. In December 2015, U.S. Army Europe formally established Joint Multinational Training Group – Ukraine (JMTG-U), where a multi-national team of Americans, Poles, Canadians, Lithuanians, and Brits began training Ukrainian battalions as combined arms teams. Command Sergeant Major Davenport sent me a note a few years ago saying Ukraine had formally established an NCO corps, with standardized training and leadership requirements. Henadii’s vision had become a reality, accelerated by the urgencies of the Russian existential threat.

As for the Russians, their recent battlefield failures—their staged maneuvers, lack of leadership development, absence of a logistics plan to support operations, inability to coordinate and conduct air-ground-sea joint operations and continued use of conscript soldiers in critical missions—all indicate a larger failure to modernize their army. Just as Russia and Ukraine followed different political courses over the past 30 years, so did their armies, and it shows. While Ukraine’s democracy is still addressing issues of government corruption, those violations pale in significance and scope to the embezzlement, graft, and corruption of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, his predecessor Anatoly Serdyukov, and Vladimir Putin himself. Colonel-General Chirkin had, if nothing else, proved that he was acting in line with the role models in his senior leadership.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1515633540129558530?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

[dead0man]

some Russian mothers drink the kompot from their handlers, others not so much

[dead0man]

The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces also claimed Friday that Russian troops were "robbing" wheat stocks, as heavy fighting continues in the country's eastern and southern regions.

"The Russian occupiers are robbing the villagers," said the General Staff. "Thus, for example, over 60 tons of wheat together with the cargo trucks were stolen from the agricultural cooperative in the town of Kamianka-Dniprovska."

to be fair, Russian authoritarian govts stealing food from Ukrainians is just part of their culture.

[dead0man]

Vladimir Putin, meet the sunk-cost fallacy. That's what the war has seemingly become for Russia at this point.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520167137507221506?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520170795112280067?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

One thing I keep noting that this guy clearly gets but a lot of people don't is that people dramatically overestimate the size of Russia's population.

Fun comparison (both rounded to the nearest 5 million):

Population of Russia: ~145 million
Population of Mexico: ~130 million

Think about that for a second. Would you be saying "Mexico has unlimited manpower, it can keep sending wave and wave of people into Guatemala, Guatemala has no chance here?" in the event that war was taking place? No, of course not. Russia is basically Mexico X 1.1 in terms of people. It's a way way smaller country than people think it is.

And that population is disproportionately elderly.

and alcoholic.  And female.

[dead0man]

[dead0man]

couple of days old, but Hamas takes trip to Moscow

A Hamas delegation lands in Moscow to meet with officials in the Russian Foreign Ministry.

The delegation is made up of Hamas officials based outside of Gaza.

Hamas has seen its ties with Russia improve in recent years. Last month, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh held a rare phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1521957444913668101?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1521957444913668101?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

Useful info, not a useful infographic

all things considered a fairly terrible graphic. Why is the M777 line in the middle of the arc? Is there some significance to that?

if the M777 info was smashed all up next to the French gun it would be so much more confusing.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/MichaelLaRosa46/status/1523293046183383041

that actually seemed like a genuine moment those two had, those are rare in this kind of thing.

[dead0man]

What is the sense exactly in posting the above?

sarcasm?

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1524742847664173057?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/KremlinTrolls/status/1524878499789561858/photo/1?ref_src=tws...

Russians using attack helis to transport washing machines.  This one less than successfully.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/P_Militarny/status/1525412573151170560?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

The Russians fled back over the border, but won't let the LPR fighters come with them and they have no idea what to do.  Try not joining the Orc side next time losers.

[dead0man]

An entire Russian Battalion refusing orders to attempt another crossing?!

I still keep expecting a group of Russian soldiers to rise up, convince a Captain or Major to take over and yada yada yada, there are 40k Russian troops pushing towards Moscow.  It's really the best way for this to end.  Russians are much more likely to accept their inevitable defeat at the hands of Russians over non-Russians.

[dead0man]

Shoigu announces completion of partial mobilization, goal of 300,000 has been reached.

218,000 are currently at training grounds and 82,000 are in Ukraine.

- the average age of those called up as part of partial mobilization is 35 years;

feel free to correct if my math is wrong, but does this mean that for every 18 year old drafted that there is also a 52 year old?  Or two 43.5 year old?  That is NOT good for Russia.


As a 49 year old, I can attest that I would not be a very good soldier.  And I've seen videos of Russian conscripts that look older and/or in worse shape than me.  If my country was being attacked I would certainly do my part, but if my country drafted me because they invaded another country (with a good reason or not) I would be far less eager to "do my part".  I can't imagine Russian dudes my age are that different.  Seems like they would, generally speaking, be far more trouble than they are worth.  But I suppose the "experts" in charge of Russia know way more than I do.

[dead0man]

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/vladimir-putin-fell-down-stairs-at-home-and-soiled-himself/

Russian leader Vladimir Putin fell down the stairs at his official residence and soiled himself, according to claims made on a Telegram channel with purported links to his inner circle.

Putin, 70, suffered the fall at home on Wednesday evening, the Telegram channel SVR claimed.

He suffered a bruised coccyx after falling down five steps, rolled on to his side and then down a further two steps.

The channel claimed he soiled himself due to the sharp impact and claims he is suffering gastrointestinal cancer, with no concrete evidence to support the claim.

I mean....

good news if true

[dead0man]

Putin likes to remind us why Trump is such a big fan.  They both just say whatever nonsense pops into their heads, irregardless of the truth that is obvious to everyone.

I don't know how the interviewer kept a straight face when Putin said "well, they started it".

[dead0man]

our resident Voice of Putin sure has been quiet.  The invasion of Bakhmut (started on Aug 1st) must not be going well.

[dead0man]

our resident Voice of Putin sure has been quiet.  The invasion of Bakhmut (started on Aug 1st) must not be going well.

Recently bigging up Belarus being about to enter the war (again?)

oh no!  Military power house Belarus getting involved will surely make Ukrainians want to give up their Nazi ways.

[dead0man]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

and if you are right it will only have taken them 6 months and 40,000 dead to do it and losing huge swaths of land elsewhere.  What a great victory for the Motherland!  How many more of these "victories" can the Russians pull off?  I hope a lot.

[dead0man]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

and if you are right it will only have taken them 6 months and 40,000 dead to do it and losing huge swaths of land elsewhere.  What a great victory for the Motherland!  How many more of these "victories" can the Russians pull off?  I hope a lot.

Don't know where you got that number from.

are your handlers giving you a different number?  It would be interesting to know what that number is.  I made up the 40k number, but even if it's half that it's still not good for your buddy Putin.

I think moving forward as this war progress, users here need to accept the harsh reality/minimum outcome:

maybe you could give us some advice on how to handle this as you've had plenty experience with it over the course of the war.  Maybe there will be one battle we can focus on where nothing seems to change for months at a time, ignoring everything that doesn't fit the narrative that we want?  It seems to be how you've handled it.