North Korea declares War on South Korea

[dead0man]

I know the "conventional wisdom" on this is that this just another sabre rattling exercise by the Norks and it very well may be, but the world is different now than it was just a couple of years ago.  There will be no minor artillery exchanges and there will certainly be no sinking of S.Korean ships with no repercussions.  If this goes hot, it's going to go white hot, for at least a few hours.

[dead0man]

It's a cause for concern, but until concrete auctions are actually taken, not excessive ones.

A North Korean concrete auction would be interesting, but I'm not sure why we should be concerned by it.

[dead0man]

That's the only reason we haven't went in yet.  (and my dog just puked)

[dead0man]

PRC mobilizing troops and jets near N.Korean border

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[dead0man]

Except this time if the Norks do an artillery strike, sink a ship, steal a ship, attempt an assassination,etc, they are freaking done.  Everybody on this side of the table is in agreement on that.  Dicking around with his sabre he may be doing, but if he even grips it a little too tight, he's getting a cruise missile down his throat.  You've heard of thin ice?  Well, it's April in Pyongyang too.

[dead0man]

S.Korea to buy 60 F-35s for $10.8B

and

60 F-15SilentEagles for $2.4B


Good for everybody except the Norks (if they still exist by time of delivery) and the PRC.  I guess it's not good for the European partners making the Typhoon either.

[dead0man]

Do we think the PLA amassing on the border is a good sign or a bad one.

Probably a good sign, but we're not 100% sure.

[dead0man]

That would make the most sense, but....we still should keep an eye on it.

Plausibly they could be planning a regime change of their own in N.Korea.  Make contact with a few high ranking people, tell them the deal.  March into Pyongyang untouched and replace Un with one of the brothers that is more willing to play ball with the PRC.

But really, we don't know.  Your guess is the most likely though.

[dead0man]

That would probably be best for all concerned, but I'm not sure if the PRC wants that or if they could pull it off as easy as we are making it out to be.  I mean, it could be easy as a phone call to the right guy or as hard as the N.Korea Army can possibly make it.

[dead0man]

Report: North Korea loads missiles onto launchers

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This is a big step in a bad direction.

[dead0man]

Beet, you should keep in mind that we can probably shoot anything down that they fire.  Granted that is a lot riding on a "probably".

[dead0man]

The South Koreans honestly make me sicker than anyone in this whole sad charade except for the North Koreans. It's their own damned country, and they've allowed this problem to fester for decades while (according to what I've read/heard anyway) coming up with airheaded excuses for the North's behavior. They've become a fat, complacent pig, who has been sitting next to a wolf for 50 years and because nothing's happened in 50 years, fat complacent pig has forgotten it's a wolf right next to her. Fat complacent pig didn't realize wolf as just waiting for pig to become fat and complacent enough, before eating her. Fat complacent pig would rather sent Psy to the U.S. to insult American troops, like a teenager lashing out at her parents who are the only ones holding the wolf at bay.

You think N.Korea is powerful wolf and S.Korea is fat pig?  That's not accurate at all.

and again, we can probably shoot down their missile(s).  As a percentage, it's got to be in the high 90s.  Obviously you don't want to be wherever it's aimed at....but....

[dead0man]

Having Seattle, SF and LA nuked would obviously suck huge ass, but it would be substantially less devestating than all out war with SU/Russia would be.  The former would be more like a really really bad 9-11, it's going to hurt, bad, but it wouldn't even be the end of those cities, much less the end of us.  The latter would put the human race in the ropes. 

I know conventional wisdom says that 3 nukes on the west coast means everybody west of Denver that was lucky enough to survive the blasts would no doubt be mutants or dead from radiation poison.  The facts are very different from that.

[dead0man]

You might find this page interesting.  Keep in mind, the estimated yield of Nork nukes is in the 6-40kt range and the closest the linked site has is a 140kt PRC nuke, but I think my point will be clear.



(if its not clear, my point is that nukes (especially sh**tty nukes from sh**t holes) aren't as powerful as you seem to think they are)

[dead0man]

Indeed.