Assume economic events, Olympics and Russia-Georgia still occur.
The more I think about it, the more I think she could have lost based on her over reliance on 'hand me down' strategy from Bill. There would have been no Palin either.
I think she would have been able to win the Gore/Kerry states plus Ohio and that would have been it. A win - but not a new coalition.
I'm not convinced Obama has built a new coalition for the Democratic party. These voters came together for him, the question is whether they will for someone else. And I'm really talking more about his primary coalition than anything else. I don't see that one emerging very often making it difficult for someone like him to get to the general.
That's the way I feel. Turnout was overhyped and just a little bigger than 2004...the Youth Vote was the same as 2000 and 2004...black turnout was higher...but that was expected. I simply think that many Americans wanted a change, and felt Barack Obama had the best ideas. I don't think it was a certain minority that elected him....I think it was just America in general, as they did to Reagan, Clinton and Bush before hand.
