The most pickable part of the Clinton-Obama Coalition for Republicans

[Reaganfan]

I don't think so. They'll remember how many Republicans treated the first African-American President, the dog whistles, the birthers, etc. Plus, Obama will probably be campaigning for whoever the Democratic nominee will be. And once you vote in 2 elections, chances are that you'll keep voting for the rest of your life.

Ahh I disagree. Look at the Saxby Chambliss 2008 race. It's a three point race with the Democrat close behind on the day Obama is on the ballot. One month later, Obama is off the ballot, and the Democrat falls 14% behind. Not a coincidence.

[Reaganfan]

I don't think so. They'll remember how many Republicans treated the first African-American President, the dog whistles, the birthers, etc. Plus, Obama will probably be campaigning for whoever the Democratic nominee will be. And once you vote in 2 elections, chances are that you'll keep voting for the rest of your life.

Ahh I disagree. Look at the Saxby Chambliss 2008 race. It's a three point race with the Democrat close behind on the day Obama is on the ballot. One month later, Obama is off the ballot, and the Democrat falls 14% behind. Not a coincidence.

But after 2008, then seeing the disasterour consequences of 2010, then voting for Obama again in 2012... I think if they voted in both 2008 and 2012 for the Democrat, they'll keep voting and keep voting for Democrats.

2014 will be a good test to see.

Younger Jews might very well trend Republican and that's a distinct possible pickup for the GOP. Other than that, I'd say Latino voters would be the easiest pickoff for the Republicans, because George W. Bush did very well with the demographic, their social conservatism can be appealed to, and seriously, the Republicans could be the party of immigration reform if they really wanted.

Latinos aren't that socially conservative. Of those that voted in 2012, 57% supported gay marriage, even more than white people (it could be because the overall Latino voter demographic is a lot younger too).

Another positive for Republicans is that if a campaign as flawed and a candidate as plain as Mitt Romney could come that close to beating an incumbent Obama, then after eight years of a Democrat, a candidate like say...Marco Rubio...could begin 2016 with 206 electoral votes and then go up against someone who in all likelihood will not be a minority and go from there.