I think Romney is the odds on favorite to be the Republican nominee. As far as the general election is concerned, if this were written as a story or script or if someone pitched to you the idea of an incumbent President with these favorable ratings and this economic turmoil, they would predict a re-election defeat on the edge of 350+ electoral votes. However, despite the last six years or so of people being tired with all their political leaders and constantly sweeping them out as fast as they swept them in (Bush's unpopularity immediately following his re-election, 2006 midterms only to be swept out of the House four years later, ect) they tend to be reluctant to change Presidents.
Indeed, one could surmise that we are in for a slew of one term Presidents, with Obama then Romney being the first two. However, after Clinton's miracle re-election, then Bush's re-election, Obama getting re-elected wouldn't seem that out of the realm of possibility. However, things are really bad. I mean, I was only four years old in 1992 so I can't recall having economic discussions with people, but never until now did I sit with people I knew or even complete strangers where we all agreed things are absolutely horrible.
Romney's economic experience and business background will appeal him to many independents and swing voters, and the Republicans will be out as they have been since 2009 in full force. Where is the enthusiasm for Obama? I can tell you right now, if Bush was eligible to run for a 3rd term, I would have probably supported him but he would have lost massively, and my support for him would have been significantly unenthusiastic in comparison to 2004. Obama's turnout will not be nearly as high as it was in 2008, and this whole notion of him trying to pull Arizona and Missouri into his column are insane. Those two states are probably gone, Florida and Indiana are probably gone as well as his strong Nebraska support. New Hampshire may end up being 2012's Indiana with a dramatic shift right, and in the end, if Romney wins New Hampshire, I see him also winning Ohio and Virginia.
Here's Romney's problem. That wonderful electoral outlook results in:
Obama: 283
Romney: 255North Carolina. Iowa. The three west states. Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. These states are insanely obsessed with Barack Obama. The fact that Nevada has an unemployment rate of 14% and would be close in a poll between an incumbent President vs. a Republican with business experience in a year that would favor Romney baffles me. If Romney wins one of those western states, it's not enough. He would have to win either North Carolina, or win a combination of Iowa & Colorado, New Mexico & Colorado or Nevada & Colorado. The fact that the Democrats are holding their convention in North Carolina will make it harder to pull the state back to the GOP as well.
Now, most campaigns are close. 1980 was very close. 1988 was close. In late Summer, polls showed Bush at 48% and Dukakis at 46%. 2008 was close. Only towards the end, such as in 1988 and 2008 or the very end as seen in the final days of Campaign '80 does the victor begin to pull away. I could see a scenario where Romney pulls away to win a decisive victory in the electoral college.
