2012 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

Does the FDP vote have a chance of picking up if some of it's former supporters realise it won't make it back into the Bundestag in the final weeks of the campaign?

I consider this very likely , yes. Wouldn't be the first time.

[Franzl]

In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.

Wouldn't a good chunk of SPD's vote start jumping ship if SPD & Linke made friends?

They haven't got that much left to lose...

[Franzl]

SPD and CDU aren't exactly ideological opposites.

[Franzl]

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Yeah, you're right. Just noting that the German consensus between center-left and center-right is pretty close together in the grand scheme of things. Compare Democrats-Republicans...or Torys-Labour.

[Franzl]

Could Die Linke voters strategically vote for Greens to get a left-wing coalition?

They could, but likely won't.

[Franzl]

CDU has rejected an internal party motion to equalize tax benefits between marriage and same-sex partnerships.

[Franzl]

Lots of new polls!

Infratest dimap 05.12.2012
Hessen (State Election)

CDU 36%
SPD 31%
Grüne 18%
Linke 5%

FDP 4%
Piraten 3%

Government 36%, Opposition  54% (excluding parties without representation)

---> SPD/Green majority, it's not even close. (49-41)


GMS 04.12.2012
Niedersachsen (State Election)

CDU 41%
SPD 32%
Grüne 13%

FDP 4%
Piraten 4%
Linke 3%

Government 41, Opposition 45 (exclusing parties without representation)

---> SPD/Green majority, (45-41), although it's rather close and the FDP getting 1% more would make it a tied race. Kind of embarrassing for a state that really should be a lot better for social democrats.


Forsa 05.12.2012
Federal Election: Bundestag

CDU/CSU 37%
SPD 26%
Grüne 16%
Linke 7%

FDP 4%
Piraten 4%

Government 37, Opposition 49 (excluding parties without representation)

---> SPD/Green slightly short of a majority (42-44), although it would be out of reach if the FDP got back over the threshold.

[Franzl]

Infratest dimap on Berlin state level:

CDU 26%
SPD 25%
Grüne 20%
Linke 14%
Piraten 7%

FDP 2%


Government (SPD/CDU) 51%, Opposition 41%

Not enough for SPD-Green (45-47). Wowereit might want that if the CDU gets 1st place...

[Franzl]

Is Red-Red-Green considered a viable option in Berlin? I'm assuming because of the Red-Red coalition before 2011 that the SPD there is not against deals with Die Linke.

Theoretically, although Wowereit turned down Red-Green last year.

[Franzl]

Infratest Dimap: FEDERAL

CDU 39
SPD 30
Grüne 14
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD/Green close but not enough. (44-46)

[Franzl]

So now there are 2 polls showing Red-Green down only 2%, with FDP and Pirates out.

[Franzl]

I would imagine that if Red-Green is a possibility the SPD will choose that over a grand coalition, no? At least for the fact that Steinbruek would get to be chancellor.

Yes, but it's only really realistic if the FDP stays out...which I still seriously doubt.

[Franzl]

New Bundestag polls:

Emnid 09.12.2012 (Federal)

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 28
Grüne 14
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD/Green with no majority. (42-47)


Forsa 12.12.2012 (Federal):

CDU/CSU 38
SPD 27
Grüne 14
Linke 8

FDP 4
Piraten 4

SPD/Green with no majority. (41-46)

[Franzl]

I notice that as the Pirate "wave" recedes, support for the CDU is rising. Are there really that many Pirate/CDU switchers?

I doubt the two developments have anything to do with each other. I can imagine Pirates supporting basically any other party more than the CDU.

[Franzl]

FGW/ZDF (Federal election), 14.12.2012

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 30
Grüne 13
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3


SPD/Grüne without a majority (43-47).

[Franzl]

Not an excellent result, historically at least.

But it'd still be their strongest showing since 1994. And rather impressive for modern times.

[Franzl]

Sadly, I'm willing to bet that the FDP will eventually make it.

They'll make it. Tactical votes will save them.

[Franzl]

What would motivate a CDU voter to cast a "tactical" vote to save the FDP? Its not as if there is the slightest chance that even if the FDP gets into the Bundestag there will anything close to a majority for CDU/FDP (what I like to call "the bumblebee coalition") - anyways you sl;ice it there will be a CDU/SPD "grand coalition" and the only question mark is in what proportion the CDU and SPD each get cabinet portfolios.

You're right, but I'm not sure the average politically uninterested voter knows and understands this. I think a lot of voters think of "CDU/FDP" as their desired government and....enough.....will vote tactically. We're only talking about enough to get them from 4 to 5%.

Not to mention that a vote for the FDP also makes an SPD/Green majority virtually impossible. So if you do know something about the current political situation and you want the CDU in government, that could make sense, in order to get a grand coalition rather than the left-wing majority.

[Franzl]

I suppose that another by-product of the FDP slipping back into parliament is it would make it less likely that a CDU/Green coalition could be formed...if that is your top priority...but realistically just about the only way Germany gets a red/green coalition is it the FDP, the Pirates AND the Linke fail to clear the 5% hurdle!

Red/Green is only down by 3-5% even with Linke in. Not a likely scenario, but not impossible.

[Franzl]

Well, the left side (SPD, Greens, Linke) still leads the right side (CDU, FDP) pretty clearly.
Only the paria status of Die Linke in German politics and the existence of the "youth populist"/pseudo-libertarian Pirates blurs the picture.
 

I would be shocked if the Pirates made it into the Bundestag at this point.