2012 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

I haven't heard anything from the Pirates except that they aren't interested in being part of any government.

I imagine, though, that they'll often be voting with the new government.

[Franzl]

Fun fact: CDU won 22 direct seats, SPD 13. No overhang seats - and the CDU candidate for state pm Jost de Jager has not been elected to parliament.

And yeah, they want to try the "Danish Traffic Light".

Is it correctly understood that The Pirate Party is willing to support a Danish Traffic Light coalition from outside the cabinet? So that one or more silly SPD members cannot do the same trick as 2005.

And now they are making demands! If you understand German (I'm guessing you do. Danes are language geniuses ) :

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[Franzl]

Depending on turnout...but I wouldn't be all that surprised to see the CDU down to 29% or so.

[Franzl]

The FDP actually gaining seats somewhere!?!?!?!

What is this madness?

Somme disappointed CDU voters voted this time FDP and their leader Lindner makes an Anti-Federal-FDP campaign.

Yeah it's rather clear that there was a strong last minute movement from CDU to FDP, likely because of the idiot Röttgen.

[Franzl]

Wasn't aware you were that interested in NRW, Tender..,

[Franzl]

This is obviously a disaster for the NRW-CDU, and even I would not have voted for them, but I think it's a rather large stretch to claim that this was in any way a rejection of the federal CDU and Merkel's policies. The CDU hasn't done too polrly in the orher elections this year, and the federal CDU is still polling at or above 2009 levels.

It's quite unfortunate that this is being discussed as Merkel's problem when in reality, she isn't at fault.

[Franzl]

Leave the nazi alone,nature already insulted him enough by letting him live.


Anyway,sweet results. Even Germans start to openly criticize Merkel's agenda...

Where are you all getting this idea that this has anything to do with Merkel's agenda. It has very little relevance in this state election. The partly leaders in NRW were the most important factor.

[Franzl]

Hannelore seems to be by far the most popular SPD politician in Germany these days. Has there been any talk of making her the SPD candidate for Chancellor against Merkel next year??

Yes, there has been, but she has ruled it categorically out and will remain in NRW for the next 5 years - which is good.

Probably. But we'll see.

[Franzl]

I'm sorry if I ask a question which has probably already been answered, but do we know which coalition will rule Schleswig-Holstein ? Is a SPD-Green-SSW coalition workable or are they stuck with another Grand Coalition ?

The former almost certainly.

[Franzl]

I'm sorry if I ask a question which has probably already been answered, but do we know which coalition will rule Schleswig-Holstein ? Is a SPD-Green-SSW coalition workable or are they stuck with another Grand Coalition ?

The former almost certainly.

Good, I guess. This will give the left 30 seats in the Bundesrat and could complicate Merkel's job a bit.

Hate to disappoint you, but the SPD opposition on "European" topics is rather laughable

[Franzl]

From what I know they've made "demands" but stopped short of saying they would actually block if they didn't get what they wanted. Don't quote me on this though, I've not followed the SPD circus much recently. I doubt the SPD will do anything radical, though, they know perfectly well the vast majority of voters support Merkel's EU policies.

[Franzl]

NRW fallout polls by ARD and ZDF (but conducted before Röttgen got kicked out):

34.0% CDU/CSU
30.0% SPD
13.0% Greens
10.0% Pirates
  5.0% Left
  4.5% FDP
  3.5% Others

Probably a Grand Coalition. And lol @ the Left.

Why are they polling after the election happened ?

They're national polls that were done after the NRW election.

[Franzl]

In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

Is there any Western state (i.e. real Germany ) that would not throw out the Left right now? Possibly Hamburg? Saarland excluded, obviously.

[Franzl]

In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

Is there any other explanation than the rise of Pirates to explain the downfall of Linke?

Several.

The fact that the grand coalition is gone. The fact that the Left has been in an internal civil war for a while. The fact that they aren't seen as credible opposition to black-yellow.

[Franzl]

So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I have to agree with what ZuWo just said

[Franzl]

This must be rather disturbing for Merkel, actually.
As long as the CDU is in first place, there's virtually no chance that she won't remain Chancellor, regardless with what coalition. If the SPD is gaining that strongly, though...?

It's probably just a Kraft bump that will go down, but it is perhaps something to worry about a little.

[Franzl]

BTW: I'm rather uninformed about what thing: Has anything actually been changed about the Überhangmandate?

Not that it would cause much havoc with the SPD almost at equal strength.

[Franzl]

New federal poll from Forsa:

CDU 31
SPD 27
Piraten 13
Grüne 13
FDP 6
Linke 6

[Franzl]

And Lafontaine has withdrawn.

In his own, unique style.

[Franzl]

Klaus Ernst has just endorsed Sarah Wagenknecht for chairmanship, so your wish could still come true.

Personally, I find Kipping much hotter. Wagenknecht had always weird eyebrows and nose IMO.

How about the Linke just löses itself auf and the two hot women can pursue something more useful?

[Franzl]

New federal poll from Forsa:

CDU 32
SPD 27
Grüne 13
Piraten 12
Linke 6
FDP 5

[Franzl]

except when both candidates with the most votes happen to be male, in that case the candidate with the most votes and the female candidate with the most votes are nominated instead (party statutes require at least one woman).

How increadibly stupid, they should just hold two seperate ballots, one for female candidates and one for male. And two women can win but not two men?

Are you a sexist? How could you prefer merit over ensuring symbolic gender equality?

[Franzl]

Or people could just ignore gender and vote for who they think is best for the job?

[Franzl]

Two latest Federal polls:

Emind (23.09.2012)
CDU/CSU: 37%
SPD: 27%
Greens: 13%
Left: 8%
Pirates: 6%
FDP: 5%
----------------
Government (CDU/CSU & FDP): 42%
Opposition: 54%

SPD/Greens: 40%



GMS (21.09.2012)
CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 26%
Greens: 13%
Left: 6%
Pirates: 6%
FDP: 5%
----------------
Government (CDU/CSU & FDP): 43%
Opposition: 51%

SPD/Greens: 39%

[Franzl]

Pirate Bubble has popped to an extent.

Yes, but more importantly: How does the SPD avoid the same trouble it got itself into in 2009? Anything else but a grand coalition under Merkel seems virtually impossible at this point.