Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Walmart_shopper]

I don't know, I feel like an alternative government (whether with the Arab parties or with Bennet) is more likely now than at any point in the previous three elections. The more that people get sick of elections, they get sick of Bibi. And the more they get sick of Bibi the more flexible their principles become in terms of forming a government. 

[Walmart_shopper]

Mandate has returned to Rivlin, and will likely pass to the Lapid-Bennett alliance.

How likely is it that the Lapid-Bennett alliance produces a government?

The mood? It's already basically done and Netanyahu is already packing.

The reality? The left and Arab parties will not give Benmet and Shaked the keys to the kingdom, although they will give them the keys to 10 Balfour. Bennet is in a very poor bargaining position, so I doubt he will actually put up much of a fight, at least privately. The left and Saar will control key ministries, and Bennet will get PM and Shaked will get a key ministry. They'll agree to some secularist legislative reforms and some budgetary guidelines, but it will not be a legislatively robust agreement. The problem is that there are certain people, like Handel, who won't want to see the left and the Arabs will more clout than they've had in two decades, and they could throw a big fit and ruin the party. So it is probably 50/50 at this point.

[Walmart_shopper]

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

He updated that the meeting between Michaeli and Bennet was good, and that both her and Horovits aren't going to delay anything but still didn't get any offer. I wouldn't be surprised if Michaeli ends up at the Home Office, judging by her sly political maneuvering during the talks with Ya'alon, Shelah and Huldai

There is no political rationale for keeping Michaeli from becoming interior minister. She should absolutely feel okay about walking away from negotiations if Bennet and Saar want to box her out. Horowitz should get education, but I could see him getting transportation and being fine with it because he could (and probably would) establish Saturday public transit.

My feeling is that things are more touch and go than it seems. Bennet has an empty hand so it is unlikely he will cause too many problems, but I do feel like the gulf between Meretz and Yamina and Raam is so wide and the margin of error so thin that anything could happen. Bennet and Shaked could even crawl back to Netanyahu, try to get the mandate for the knesset, and preen for the eight wing base before a fifth election. Some people, including Ben Caspit, seem to think thisbis pretty much done, but I think there is no chance Merav gets health and Horowitz gets culture or whatever and the right wing just dominates a coalition propped up by leftist votes. The left will demand more and won't really suffer politically if things blow up. Not saying they will blow up, but I think this is less done than people suppose.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/barak_ehud/status/1390625429166362625

Is this s*** real? If so WTH?

It is from Yisrael HaYom. It is likely spin from Yamina and Saar. It seems like it has almost no chance of happening, but I guess you never know given the distinct pack of courage the left wing opposition in Israel has traditionally shown.

[Walmart_shopper]

According to channel 12 (caution- they've been wrong in many, many occasions) Yamina has presented an ultimatum that Shaked gets Justice (rather than Sa'ar). Bunch of gluttons.

The emperor has no clothes and ut's time someone told him. This is getting absurd.

[Walmart_shopper]

Can one of the Israeli posters tell me how strong the PM position is? If not for the agreements they made for the coalition to come together, would the PM be able to do anything he wants or are most policies decided by ministers?

The position itself is quite weak, although Netanyahu is such a strongman he kind of made the actual position seem quite broad in terms of its power. In any case Bennet will be an extremely weak PM with almost no meaningful power himself.