Why Biden will win Wisconsin

[walleye26]

Obviously Wisconsin will be very close, but I think that Biden will ultimately win Wisconsin. There are several factors involved in this. I am listing them in no particular order.

The first is that many parts of rural Wisconsin, while not maxed out for Trump, can’t get too much more red. Places like Taylor County are already 75-25 GOP, and places like Marinette, Rusk, Langlade, Shawano, Clark, etc already are voting 70/30 Trump. There just simply are not a lot of places for Trump to squeeze out of rural Wisconsin; rural Wisconsin is not rural Alabama; Trump won’t win it by 80 points. There are a combination of enough 1) retired Chicago/Illinois/Twin Cities liberals that have lake homes in places like Hayward, Spooner, and Rhinelander 2) Native Americans and 3) remote workers to hold most of rural Wisconsin from dropping off completely for Dems.

Second, shifts are bad for the GOP in both WOW and BOW. Republicans have seriously lost ground in eastern Waukesha and Ozaukee counties in a big way. Additionally, inner ring suburbs such as Greenfield, Franklin, and Hales Corners in MKE county have moved solidly left too. This isn’t just Trump, but Evers did well there in 2022, and Barnes actually cracked 37% in Waukesha and 42% in Ozaukee. Often overlooked, but critically important, are the Fox Valley suburbs. Evers only lost Brown by 4%, and Democrats flipped places like De Pere and significantly improved in places like Bellevue and Howard. If Trump loses any support in BOW or WOW, it’ll be very hard to make that up elsewhere.

Third, Dane County’s growth is stupid. It’s crazy how many people are moving there, many of them Democratic leaning. Although much smaller, St Croix County and Eau Claire are growing solidly too, with St Croix being some blue spillover from the Twin Cities.

Lastly, Wisconsin actually got fair state legislative maps this year. Democrats are investing a lot to try to flip the state assembly (the senate is still out of reach). This will likely help with Democratic turnout, and I can’t explain how much of a dumpster fire the WisGOP is right now. Despite having billions of dollars in state surplus, the GOP refuses to find Wisconsin schools and they are going to referendums to try to avoid shutting down. The GOP refused to expand abortion access, marijuana, and are constantly infighting (see Robin Vos recall effort). This is unlikely to stop anytime soon.

Thoughts?

[walleye26]

I agree with points 2,3 and 4.
However, as Arizona Iced Tea said, I think it's very possible that Driftless / Rural Areas shift further to the right.

To Illustrate this, I would compare two counties right across the border from each other: Allamakee County, Iowa and Crawford County, Wisconsin. These two counties have similar populations (13k to 17k), racial demographics (89% and 94% White) and Educational Levels (51.5% and 48% No College), yet there is a major gap in voting patterns, with Allamakee being Trump+29 and Crawford being Trump+8.

You are correct in that rural Wisconsin will never be as red as rural Alabama, but it might get close to being as red as Iowa or other comparable rural northern areas.


On the other hand, one possible plus for Biden is that Kenosha will probably not deviate like it did in 2020 because of the riots. Similar areas shifted to Biden by like 4%, but Kenosha swung right by 4% (And Racine had no swing). I suspect that if the protests/riots hadn't of occurred, Biden would have netted 10k more votes from these two counties and pushed his statewide margins above 1%. I think he may get many of those voters in 2024.

Yes, Trump might inch up a few points in some of these counties but I doubt it’ll have another massive rightward lurch like from 2012-2016. Who are all the Clinton/Biden voters ready to swing hard R in the Driftless area?

I also do agree that parts of the Driftless area will shift more Republican. Let’s say that Richland, Crawford, Lafayette, Vernon, and Juneau all shift R+10. That would be more than cancelled out by a D+3 shift in Waukesha County, since Waukesha has 400,000 people but the counties I listed before only have barely 100,000. I also think the GOP can make some gains in Douglas County.

My general take is that WI Dems have a rural Wisconsin problem, but the WisGOP has an even bigger suburbs problem.

[walleye26]

Obviously Wisconsin will be very close, but I think that Biden will ultimately win Wisconsin. There are several factors involved in this. I am listing them in no particular order.

…

Thoughts?

The above was the outcome in 2020 Wisconsin.

Raw-vote margin was D+20,682.

Wisconsin, one of the three top bellwether states (the other two are Pennsylvania and Michigan), was a 2020 Democratic pickup along with a 2020 Democratic pickup for U.S. President for Joe Biden.

With 2024 Democratic incumbent Biden struggling for 40 percent in job approval, I predict a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. President for Donald Trump who, among his other applicable states, will also win a 2024 Republican pickup of Wisconsin.

That raw-vote margin of +20,682 is not insurmountable. Take 10,342 votes out of the 2020-to-2024 Democratic and into the 2020-to-2024 Republican column … and there you have a flipped state.

I look to diminished Democratic margin in counties such as Milwaukee and Dane. I look to solidified Republican margin in the counties Kenosha and Winnebago. I look to 2020 Democratic-to-2024 Republican pickups in counties such as Door and Sauk. I also consider a potential Republican pickup in the county Portage.

If Trump wins, it won’t be by flipping Sauk and Portage, it’ll be due to lower turnout in Milwaukee. I highly doubt Trump flips Portage County, since UW-SP is there. It’s usually close, but it hasn’t voted GOP in quite some time, and Stevens Point and Plover are both growing and pretty young. Sauk is seeing a large influx of people from Madison, which tend to be bluer; places like Baraboo and Sauk City are building a LOT of homes right now. I don’t think Sauk is completely off the map, but I would be skeptical.