At what point will Dems get maxed out in Dane County?

[walleye26]

I would guess probably about 82-84%. I think that Dems don’t really grow in percentage from here, but will continue to increase raw vote margin. Evers added 16,000 more votes this year than 2018, and Michels decreased 7,000 compared to Walker. I think it’s realistic going forward to say that every four years Dems will net ~10,000 votes in midterms and ~20,000 in Prez races.

Part of this is because population is just booming all over Dane County. Every time I drive down Highway 151 or I39 I see more and more cranes building apartments. Even in the suburbs like Sun Prairie or Deforest houses are just sprouting up. It’s nuts.

[walleye26]

I would guess probably about 82-84%. I think that Dems don’t really grow in percentage from here, but will continue to increase raw vote margin. Evers added 16,000 more votes this year than 2018, and Michels decreased 7,000 compared to Walker. I think it’s realistic going forward to say that every four years Dems will net ~10,000 votes in midterms and ~20,000 in Prez races.

Part of this is because population is just booming all over Dane County. Every time I drive down Highway 151 or I39 I see more and more cranes building apartments. Even in the suburbs like Sun Prairie or Deforest houses are just sprouting up. It’s nuts.

If we are miraculously still winning WI in the 2030s, Dane growth will be probably one of the biggest reasons.

Yeah, right now Dane County is about 570,000 people, but it is projected to be about 700,000 by 2040. If we assume that means 100K new voters and they break 70/30 D, that would mean 40,000+ Dem votes. Also, the projections that show 700k are conservative ones. Personally, with the rate of growth I’m seeing, I think closer to 740,000 is likely. The exurban counties are also growing too. Beaver Dam (Dodge) is growing steadily, Lake Mills (Jefferson), Baraboo (Sauk) are all working on pretty large developments right now. In Columbia County, where I like, Columbus is plotting a new neighborhood off Hwy 151, Poynette just agreed with a developer to add 470 homes by 2030, Portage just signed a developer agreement to add 250 apartment units and 47 single family homes. This doesn’t even include the current proposals I’m reading from Lodi, Arlington, Rio, and Fall River that are trying to build more (although those communities are off the main highways so it’s a bit harder to get attention).

In terms of future trends, I also wouldn’t underestimate Dem chances in the Fox Valley. The Packers are pouring in a crap load of money to build up massive condo and townhome developments around Lambeau, and the suburbs are growing rapidly too. De Pere is seeing a pretty strong leftward trend, and other wealthy suburbs like Kimberly are pretty competitive.

[walleye26]

How so?

[walleye26]

How so?

I'm referring to your take on the Fox Valley region. For a long time, I have underestimated Dems' chances in this region because I have always viewed this area as a more working-class region, but it has been 10-15 years since I've visited this area, so I'm guessing things must have changed a lot since then?

In a neutral environment, yes, it will lean R a bit. However, it’s growing pretty rapidly, and if you look at the suburbs of Green Bay in particular, there a glimmers for Dems. Obviously coalitions can change, but Evers did a lot better in Brown, Outagamie, and Winnebago than just 4 years ago. Barnes also did much better than I would expect. De Pere in particular has been shifting quite left recently, but Bellevue is sliding left too. Brown’s rurals are very red, like Alabama margins, which is why it’s staying red as a county. Dems also have picked up a bit in places like Kimberly and Harrison. We’ll see if these trends continue or not though. Lots of money has been pouring into these places and a lot of young people are moving in.