There are arguments that could be made that every county in this region could be with a different region and most are legit. Sheboygan County has a strong connection with Manitowoc and Green Bay. They could easily be in the Fox Valley & Thumb region. City of Sheboygan high school teams compete against primarily schools to its north. I decided against this due to the strong Dutch present in the southern part of the county and how it bleeds into Fond du Lac County, plus its inclusion in the Milwaukee Media Market. Fond du Lac County could probably be included with the Fox Cities Region to complete the entire loop around Lake Winnebago. Similar to Sheboygan, Fond du Lac High School plays against schools to its north. However, the previously explained ties to Dodge and Sheboygan counties overrode that idea. Finally, both western Dodge and Jefferson counties are definitely more orientated towards the City of Madison and Dane County. Beaver Dam, Fort Atkinson, Lake Mills, and Waterloo are all primarily satellite municipalities to Madison rather than Milwaukee. The stronger than average German nature of the eastern parts of these counties plus the very strong tie of the City of Watertown to Milwaukee made it more similar to the other parts of this region than the Madison exurbs.
Dodge County
2019 Population: 87,839 (1.51%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.43%
June 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 48,420 (1.43%
PVI: R+13
2016 Presidential Margin: R+30%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: R+27%
2018 Senate Margin: R+15%
Municipalities: City of Beaver Dam (16,403) D+1%, City of Waupun (11,199 – Partially in Fond du Lac County) R+32
Dodge County is home to the Fitzgerald family that has been essentially running the state, along with previously Scott Walker, for the last 10 years. It is a very Republican County. One place to look here when results come in on election day is the City of Beaver Dam. Hillary Clinton barely won what is typically a pretty reliant Democratic municipality. If this margin is similar this year, Trump will be happy. Biden would love to match the 9-point win Evers got here. If Biden is winning any other municipality or town in this county, he’s in for a big win in Wisconsin. Same for Trump is he’s sweeping the county.
Some pretty good analysis here, and I moved to Beaver Dam last year so I’ll add a bit more in depth about Dodge County.
Looking at Dodge is quite amazing. Going to the far eastern part of the county, there are some townships over by Theresa that Democrats can’t even break 15% in. The western part is more Madison exurbs, following highway 151. When I used my TV antenna, I would get Madison stations over the air, but now that I have cable, I have Milwaukee stations, despite from my apartment in Beaver Dam I can be at the East Towne Mall in Madison in 30 minutes even but I’m an hour and 15 from Milwaukee.
Beaver Dam itself is almost split into two distinct parts. The north and western parts of town are very much working class older neighborhoods, with large factories such as MEC and industrial parks. There’s manufacturing here which is attracting more minorities, and I’ve noticed a fair number of Hispanics and African Americans moving in to take these factory jobs, which pay decently well. (Granted, Beaver Dam is still pretty white, but going from 90 to 80% white does start to show in terms of voting trends). The southern and eastern parts of Beaver Dam near 151 contain newer apartment complexes and larger upper middle class houses, and more Madison commuters live here.
Following 151 southwest of Beaver Dam, getting closer to Columbus, you start to see more and more country subdivisions. The towns of Calamus and Elba are already voting over 40% Democratic, and I expect that to go up a bit as the Madison creep slowly moves north and east. The Republican East part of Dodge County can’t really get that much more Republican.
