Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1628174867794124801?cxt=HHwWgoCzsc6auJ...

5pm turnout in Madison. Not bad.

[walleye26]

For comparison, the 2018 February Supreme Court primary drew 77,532 voters from Dane County (Dallet received 52% of the vote, and liberal lawyer Tim Burns received 30%). The City of Madison alone, which is about 50% of Dane County’s population, already has 45,000+ at 4pm.

[walleye26]

Looks like it's pretty high across the state.

https://twitter.com/joeminocqua/status/1628163800640765954?s=20

I wonder if the snowstorm is depressing turnout in the Northwestern part of the state. Here in the Dells it’s already coming down.

[walleye26]

Most of the uncounted Dane precincts are in the city of Madison proper, there are 36 Madison precincts still uncounted.

[walleye26]

As of 9:13 Central Time, Liberals winning by a combined 54-46.

[walleye26]

20,000 absentee votes left in Milwaukee

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1628236830138150916?s=20

I was wondering why MKE hadn’t updated in awhile, this explains it.

Also, another thing I wanted to add is that it appears there is still some residual downballot strength for Dems in the Driftless region. Vernon was won by Evers last November, and Janet is winning it with 51% right now; the two liberals are also combining for 53% of the vote in Jackson, which is a county Trump won by 15 points; in Pepin and Buffalo, Janet is substantially outrunning Biden. In Dunn County, the two liberals are combining for 53% of the vote in a county Trump won by nearly 10.

Edited to add in Richland County Janet has 52% (another Trump +10 county) and the two liberals have tied the conservatives in Lafayette (Trump +15).

[walleye26]

I think we should debate whether or not The next Democrat to win a presidential election carries Ozaukee County.

[walleye26]

Another wild card I think we can think about is how many Dorow—> Protasiewicz voters there may be. WOW favored Dorow, and while I believe that they will mostly support Kelly, I would imagine that some won’t. As coalitions have shifted, WOW cannot control the GOP primaries like they used to. Even if only 10% of voters move to Janet in the April election, Kelly is toast.

[walleye26]

Side note but how do you pronounce Protasiewicz

Her ad makes fun of this, she says “you don’t need to know how to say Pro-tuh-say-witz to know judge Janet will fight for your rights.”

[walleye26]

I had to proctor an ACT test today, and the ACT does not allow you to bring in any materials, electronic devices, or books. However, the room did have loose leaf paper, a calculator, and some pens, so I naturally created a SCOWIS election model for April 4th’s election. (5 hours is a long time to sit).

So, here’s what I got: I projected the election to feature 40% turnout (1.44 million votes, less than 2020’s SCOWIS race which turned out 1.542 million but more than 2019’s SCOWIS race of 1.21 million). I guesstimated turnout for each county as close to 40% as I could. Before the test administrators came to pick up electronics I wrote down the registered number of voters per county, which I would use to do the math.

I made some counties’ a bit above 40% and some below, based on educational level, historical turnout, and poverty rates (along with minority population). I pegged Dane County to turn out at 44% but Milwaukee only 36%, with Ozaukee at 48%, Washington 41, Waukesha 42, and Brown 39. The lowest turnout counties I projected were Menominee at 26, Ashland at 32, Sawyer, Rusk, Clark, and Price at 33, and Forest, Langlade, and Marquette at 34.

What I then did is estimate percentage vote totals for each candidate per county. I had Dane go to Janet 83-17, MKE go 64-36 (I assumed low black turnout) Waukesha 62-38 for Kelly, Ozaukee 55-45 Kelly, and Washington at 69-31 Kelly.

What I ultimately came up with was a Janet +3.8 win, with a majority of 55,000 votes. I intentionally tried to be just a hint bearish on Dem turnout, since historically minority turnout in these are pretty low; that’s why I had Ashland, Menominee, Bayfield, Sawyer, and MKE with lower turnout and more GOP leaning than you’d otherwise expect.

Obviously, trying to model a nonpartisan SCOWIS race is a fool’s errand for a number of reasons, but I had 5+ hours that I wasn’t allowed to do anything so I tried. If anybody has specific questions about counties or turnout, ask away. This was a nonscientific exercise, so I’m welcome to comments or debate.

[walleye26]

Thank you!

My biggest excitement will be to see 1) does Milwaukee or Dane turn out at even higher rates? If MKE shows up at high rates, then this won’t even be close.

2) What happens in WOW? If Washington County is more like 65-35 and Waukesha is more like 57-43, stick a fork in the WisGOP.

3) BOW counties? It’s probably going to be interesting to see if Brown flips. I have it as 55-45 Kelly, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Janet won it on Election Day, if Kelly truly is despised by the suburbs. Green Bay’s suburbs in particular (De Pere, Bellevue, and Allouez) have shifted considerably left.

[walleye26]

In the model, I had the following counties won by Janet:

Ashland 57-43
Bayfield 57-43
Columbia 54-46
Crawford 54-46
Dane 83-17
Door 53-47
Douglas 57-43
Eau Claire 60-40
Grant 52-48
Green 58-42
Iowa 64-36
Jackson 52-48
LaCrosse 61-39
Menominee 66-33
Milwaukee 64-36
Portage 56-44
Pierce 52-48
Richland 53-47
Rock 60-40
Sauk 59-41
Trempeleau 55-45
Vernon 54-46

In terms of other counties, I had Winnebago, Dunn, and Lafayette tied, with Kelly winning the following large counties:

Brown 55-45
Fond du Lac 61-39
Kenosha 53-47
Marathon 58-42
Outagamie 55-45
Ozaukee 55-45
Racine 54-46
Sheboygan 59-41
St. Croix 56-44
Walworth 61-39
Waukesha 62-38
Washington 69-31

[walleye26]

I’m starting to think maybe my margins in Waukesha County are a bit too Kelly-friendly.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/napervillepol/status/1638229767269785611?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg

love how this person said Democrats are in trouble with 4000 votes returned. its only been one day.

Waukesha county: 1145
Dane county: 862
Brown county: 641
Milwaukee county: 639
Ozaukee county: 596

Where did they find these numbers? I plan to start tracking them closer once Madison begins posting their numbers later this week.

[walleye26]

Madison has 1,475 early-in person votes today. That number does NOT include mail-in ballots. I will update that number periodically the next couple of weeks as Madison’s City Clerk updated the numbers.

There are 192,000 registered voters in the city of Madison.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1638723271821602816?cxt=HHwWgMC94cSI9b...

Another day, and 1,300 Madison voters turned out. Again, this number does NOT include ballots that have been received via mail. According to the clerk’s office, 26,000 Madisonians have requested absentees, which is 13.4% of all eligible voters.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1639084821635842048?cxt=HHwWgIC25cC9mb...

Another day, another 1,400 Madisonians out to early vote. According to the clerks office, just over 27,000 people have requested absentees, which is a bit over 14% of all registered voters.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1639084821635842048?cxt=HHwWgIC25cC9mb...

Another day, another 1,400 Madisonians out to early vote. According to the clerks office, just over 27,000 people have requested absentees, which is a bit over 14% of all registered voters.

This is really good turnout for Madison thus far?

Well, at 11am on Feb 21st (the primary day) there were 19,633 votes cast in Madison. There are over 27,000 absentees requested as of today, which is 8,000 more than had voted by 11am on the primary day.

….and there are still 9 days left of early voting.

[walleye26]

As of yesterday at 8:45 AM, Madison had 28,618 absentee ballots requested, and last night the Clerk’s office stated 1,453 people voted absentee.

That means 30,000 Madisonians have either requested an absentee or have already voted, which is a 15.5% turnout thus far.

[walleye26]

As of yesterday at 8:45 AM, Madison had 28,618 absentee ballots requested, and last night the Clerk’s office stated 1,453 people voted absentee.

That means 30,000 Madisonians have either requested an absentee or have already voted, which is a 15.5% turnout thus far.

The higher the turnout there the better and with students back from spring break it should go even higher. I heard there is a big effort to get students in Madison, La Crosse and Eau Claire to vote.

Yes, Eau Claire in particular is doing a lot. I can’t speak to the colleges themselves, but Eau Claire is setting up drive-through voting and hundreds of people are using them each day.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1640358056243474432?cxt=HHwWgMC97cG93M...

Madison is saying 31,000+ absentees have been requested. For a bit of comparison, at 4pm on Feb 21st (the primary election) 44,975 Madisonians voted. With 6 more days of in-person early voting (averaging about 1,400 voters per day) Madison should be close to the 4pm Election Day turnout before Election Day even rolls around.

[walleye26]

I swear to gosh Dane County is literally just an OP election simulator cheat code.

Anyways this race is definitely looking likely D if not close to safe.

I’m not prepared to make that call but signs are positive.

The state party has built a massive turnout operation there which is genius given it’s the second bluest county in the state after Menominee.

I’ve definitely noticed that Kelly has a good ground game going, but every time I see Dane county updated numbers it’s just going to be a difficult hill for him to climb.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1640524513350754307?s=20

Beat me to it…but this is good turnout for Madison

[walleye26]

I honestly don't think this is in the bag as many people think. I think it's a lean dem race but Kelly Can definitely win this.

I was driving through rural Wisconsin (Dodge, Green Lake, and Fond du Lac) and I was generally impressed with Kelly’s ground game. Huge amounts of signs. A couple people I graduated high school with are highly involved with Wisconsin Right to Life and they are putting in a lot of volunteer hours into this. We will see what happens. The model I built right now has a Janet +4 win, but a narrow Kelly win is a possibility of course.

[walleye26]

I honestly don't think this is in the bag as many people think. I think it's a lean dem race but Kelly Can definitely win this.

I was driving through rural Wisconsin (Dodge, Green Lake, and Fond du Lac) and I was generally impressed with Kelly’s ground game. Huge amounts of signs. A couple people I graduated high school with are highly involved with Wisconsin Right to Life and they are putting in a lot of volunteer hours into this. We will see what happens. The model I built right now has a Janet +4 win, but a narrow Kelly win is a possibility of course.

Amount of Signs mean nothing.

Right to Life is out knocking on a lot of doors.