Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[walleye26]

Tuesday is Election Day. The biggest race of note is probably MKE’s mayoral race. Acting mayor Cavalier Johnson is running against former Alderman Bob Donovan.

Several judgeships are also up.

Personally, I am going to be focused on a lot of school board races. In places like Waukesha, the WISGOP is strongly supporting right-leaning school board challengers. In Wausau and its suburbs, there’s also some strongly conservative challengers running, as well as all over the state. We’ll see.

[walleye26]

Donovan is going to flee the city to Greenfield and going to find some dive bar to drink himself to death in. Stay out of the bathrooms there though as he’s a predator.

I know the drinking part, but fill me in on the bathroom part?

[walleye26]

Also in Waukesha, the GOP flipped school board seats. Two moderate school board members (Deets and Baumgart) lost their seats to more right-wing, GOP-sponsored candidates.

[walleye26]

Despite the relatively low turnout, a damn good night for Democrats across the state. Even in reliably red Waukesha, the former GOP mayor Shawn Reilly was re-elected.

There's no good reason to believe this. Kenosha County (often a bellwether) just elected their first R county executive ever. Many school board members got defeated by more right-wing challenges. You can always pick out exceptions in local "non-partisan" races because there are so many to choose from, but it absolutely has no overall bearing on what's going to happen in November anyway. R's suffered in the court races in 2020 and Trump made it the closest presidential election since 2004 in the state anyway. Hagedorn won in 2018 before Walker lost and Baldwin easily won.

They're Atlas Dems, what do you expect? They prefer to live with their heads buried in the sand.

These results were definitely not good for Democrats.

Yeah, I agree with both of you. It wasn’t a good night for Democratic-aligned candidates. In places like Waukesha, more moderate board members lost to conservative challengers, and many other school boards had more conservative challengers win. A lot of school districts in the northern half of the state (and some rural areas) BADLY lost their funding referendums. In Stratford (near Marshfield) their referendum lost 70-30. Medford (Taylor county) rejected their referendum, as did Merrill, Rosendale-Brandon (western Fond du Lac Co), Gillette, and Oconto Falls all lost their referendums.

[walleye26]

In other news, Michael Gableman, who has been leading the GOP’s waste of money bull***t election investigation, was accused of destroying open records requests and other things. When a judge called him to the witness stand, he got pretty lippy with the judge and has now been found in contempt. https://www.channel3000.com/i/wisconsin-judge-gop-election-agency-in-contempt-for-records/

[walleye26]

I’ve noticed that I see more Kleefisch signs in the suburbs and more Michels signs in the rurals…this may be a continuing of the “WOW counties Republican” vs the rest of the state (and usually the candidate that wins WOW usually wins, since the rural parts of the state don’t have enough to overcome the sheer numbers from the burbs).

[walleye26]

One of my friends who is very conservative voted for Kleefisch and said “she’s more electable and a better candidate.” He thinks Michels will lose.

Another friend of mine who has mostly voted GOP told me he will vote for Evers. I know it’s anecdotal, but I do think this isn’t business as usual here. WOW has always voted as a cohesive unit, but Washington peeled off. I wonder how that changes things in November.

[walleye26]

I can't believe that the Republicans are turning out 200,000 more primary voters than the Democratic Primary so far.

I hope this isn't a harbinger of November.

Anecdotal, but I know of many Dems that voted in the GOP primary since Barnes became the nominee.

[walleye26]

How is Michels an especially bad candidate? He generally seems like Generic R in every way to me.

Yeah,  I don't get this.  If anything the outsider image should help. My understanding is that both candidates have randomly made a couple extremely socially conservative comments, but I think Michels comes off as more moderate overall? 

You don’t understand—he was nominated by the Republican Party in 2022 and is therefore a horrible candidate. QED.

Michels ads are so awful. Evers is really boring, but Michels seems like cardboard and unlikeable with no personality. His ads were just “I’m Trump’s guy and I’ll build the wall! Illegals are ruining this country! I hate criminals!”

[walleye26]

Yeah, not sure if the “urging people to grab pitchforks and torches is a common expression” argument will work, Tim. Also, while we are at it, donating to anti-LGBT and anti-abortion causes in an election that will absolutely be dominated by that is not “hating you because you’re a Christian.”

https://www.channel3000.com/i/wisconsin-gop-candidate-calls-for-pitchforks-and-torches/

[walleye26]

Watched part of the debate yesterday. Michels looked like a sweaty Lite Rand Paul, and Evers wasn’t an inspiring speaker. I don’t think it changed much.

Overall, I think Evers and Kaul win by 1-2% or so, and RonJon wins by 3-4%.

[walleye26]

On the drive to Rusk County for hunting I saw a Trump/Evers voter near Osseo. Definitely had Trump signs in 2020 and now it has Evers signs up, along with a “Proud Union Home” and “Vote Yes for Our Schools” sign.

[walleye26]

On the drive to Rusk County for hunting I saw a Trump/Evers voter near Osseo. Definitely had Trump signs in 2020 and now it has Evers signs up, along with a “Proud Union Home” and “Vote Yes for Our Schools” sign.

Interesting but could easily be a new occupant.

It’s not, the same vehicles/UTVs and yard decor are all the same. My guess is a working class voter who wants the border secured and tax cuts but supports public education.

[walleye26]

My prediction:
Evers 49.6
Michels 49.2

Johnson 51.9
Barnes 48.1

Van Orden +6 over Pfaff

[walleye26]

It's essentially a three way race in Robin Vos' district.

https://twitter.com/mattsmith_news/status/1589625629569581056?s=20&t=s6Vo9Fg...

There’s no Democrat running in Vos’ district?

[walleye26]

My prediction:
Evers 49.6
Michels 49.2

Johnson 51.9
Barnes 48.1

Van Orden +6 over Pfaff

Yeah, I feel like it may be 2018 all over again with Evers pulling out a win. Michels just seems like a really bland candidate, who has said some really dumb stuff.

I know a few moderate Republicans who are voting Evers because they are angry at Vos for the 2020 election investigation and they know Evers wouldn’t be able to do anything. Anecdotally, a few Republicans I know don’t trust Michels. They voted Trump in 2020.

[walleye26]

Evers at 39% of the vote in Waukesha County with 69% reporting….he got 33% against Walker in 2018

[walleye26]

One underrated factor at play in the SCOWIS race is that traditionally the type of people who show up for the spring races are highly educated. In the past, the WOW counties just destroyed Dems in the court races. Dane County turns out for them, but Milwaukee doesn’t. This meant conservatives typically won.

However, I’m curious to see if some of the traditional WOW educated republicans see abortion as a particularly salient issue and my vote for Judge Janet in the primary. If a lot of Ozaukee/Waukesha voters vote for a liberal in the top two race, the GOP could be shut out. There just isn’t enough of a population to make up for it in the rurals (in the February primary, that is).

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1625868245596008451

Ben Wikler has done an amazing since becoming the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. IMO they've gone from one of the weakest state parties to one of the strongest. Whoever the liberal nominee is (99% sure its going to be Protasiewicz) is going to be flushed with money. The conservative is going to have to be bailed out by Richard/Elizabeth Uihlein and Diane Hendricks.

This, basically. My fear is that WI Dems’ coalition relies very heavily on Madison and Milwaukee, and to be honest, Milwaukee doesn’t show up for SCOWIS races. I mean, MKE turnout is beyond pathetic. The Right-Wing financiers will absolutely dump in huge amounts of money to get Kelly or Dorrow elected.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1625868245596008451

Ben Wikler has done an amazing since becoming the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. IMO they've gone from one of the weakest state parties to one of the strongest. Whoever the liberal nominee is (99% sure its going to be Protasiewicz) is going to be flushed with money. The conservative is going to have to be bailed out by Richard/Elizabeth Uihlein and Diane Hendricks.

This, basically. My fear is that WI Dems’ coalition relies very heavily on Madison and Milwaukee, and to be honest, Milwaukee doesn’t show up for SCOWIS races. I mean, MKE turnout is beyond pathetic. The Right-Wing financiers will absolutely dump in huge amounts of money to get Kelly or Dorrow elected.

This actually gets at a rather interesting point: will the coalitions shift? Past recent Wisconsin Court elections have featured a different permutation of the traditional state political arrangement than usual.  As noted, dem turnout in Milwaukee is usually bad, but that's not the only feature.  WOW and inner Milwaukee suburbs voted for conservatives are rates above what they give to partisan Republicans.  The outlying rural counties and smaller metros are more volatile than when selecting partisans. And Dane punched way above its weight relative to the state,  effectively putting Milwaukee on its back.

So one wonders if the circumstances of this election will change things. Obviously more is riding on this court election than any other in almost a decade,  so one could imagine comparatively higher turnout.  One could also imagine coalitions more resembling the last gubernatorial election than past court elections,  for the same reason.  Then there remains the abortion X factor, and whether the electorate will behave like the past contests. 

So yeah, obviously the GOP will end up pumping money into the race like the Dems are now. But Tuesday will give us some idea of what the is the exact field of play, and whether Dem expectations of a an eventual victory are matched by actual evidence 

Yeah, it’s definitely a big wild card. I made a post on this issue in this thread back in December about this very dynamic. I personally think some folks who live in WOW (especially in places like Mequon and Brookfield) are basically soft Democrats now in elections. Evers won several precincts in Menominee Falls, Brookfield, and Mequon, so the ground is shifting. WOW voters turn out in huge numbers, so if they really do shift to support Judge Janet then there won’t be enough rural voters to counteract that.

[walleye26]

First Dems need to win a spot on Tuesday-I’m confident they will, but after the 2019 SCOWIS race, I’m not taking any of these low-turnout races for granted.

[walleye26]

I also looked at turnout from 2018’s SCOWIS Feb primary (the last one in which multiple “liberal” candidates ran) and Dane County’s Feb turnout was 25.5%, or 77,532 voters. Madison’s city clerk tweeted yesterday that 15,604 people have already voted (just the city of Madison) but that 23,000 have requested absentees. The 15K number means 8.1% of Madison’s voters have turned out already, but they also have early in person voting today and tomorrow as well. Also, some ballots will come into them via mail as well. I would estimate that somewhere around 20,000 Madisonians will have already voted by the time Tuesday comes around, which is roughly 11% of turnout. We will see what turnout there is on Election Day.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1626598079150555142?cxt=HHwWjIDQwbeV65...

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1626789674688647168?cxt=HHwWgMC4weGlwp...

[walleye26]

Tomorrow a really wild card is that a major snowstorm is going to start hitting west-central Wisconsin by about 1pm tomorrow. St Croix, Polk, Barron, Pepin, Pierce, Dunn, Buffalo, Barron, and Trempeleau Counties will start to get some snow by mid-to-late afternoon, which could depress turnout a bit. While Eau Claire and River Falls are blue cities in the storm’s path, they tend to be more reliant on college voters who don’t show up anyway. Also, a lot of rural red areas will take a hit. Had this snowstorm been pushed up a day earlier (it’s currently projected to hit Wednesday) the Dems could easily hit a lockout (since Milwaukee, Dane, Rock, Green, Iowa, and Sauk aren’t projected to take a major hit, but everything north of Highway 33 (Vernon County to Ozaukee County) will see HUGE amounts of snow, in some places like Eau Claire they could get two feet. 

[walleye26]

Madison’s clerk stated at 11am, a bit over 19,500 voters had voted. That’s 10% of Madison’s turnout, however more people are going to vote later in the day.