Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[walleye26]

I said this When Dems won the court race, but it has once again cropped up - Hagedorn is a Conservative, but not a power-grabber like the the normal WIGOP. Probably has something to do with him being left to the wolves by the usual GOP partisan actors in his election, since he was seen as too extreme in certain areas. His support network was more 'unofficial,' and when he won it was a surprise to all but the most devout. For example, check out the number of endorsements he got (listed on Ballotopedia) when compared to Kelly or Screnock.

You could be right-and maybe I underestimated him.

[walleye26]

1. Evers called a special session on policy brutality/criminal justice reform. Guaranteed Vos/Fitzgerald will immediately gavel in and out and say to obey the police. Will hurt them for sure.

2. Lawsuit from snowflake conservatives to eliminate the mask mandate.

It won’t hurt them. Wisconsin is so gerrymandered it will probably actually help them. Obviously that’s hyperbole, but not really.

[walleye26]

In response to Evers handling of the Kenosha aftermath and handling of Covid, opponents launched a recall effort on Aug 27. Today they said they have the signatures to force a recall.
https://www.wsaw.com/2020/10/20/group-looking-to-recall-evers-says-theyve-met-the-minimum-number-of-required-petition-signatures/

[walleye26]

In response to Evers handling of the Kenosha aftermath and handling of Covid, opponents launched a recall effort on Aug 27. Today they said they have the signatures to force a recall.
https://www.wsaw.com/2020/10/20/group-looking-to-recall-evers-says-theyve-met-the-minimum-number-of-required-petition-signatures/

How likely is it that the recall will be successful? As we saw before with Scott Walker it is hard to do.

Successful as in removing him from office? Probably not. Successful as in “showing how awful the WI GOP is?” Extremely.

[walleye26]

Don’t underestimate the WI GOP.....

[walleye26]

In case anybody was curious, the Dems flipped two assembly districts, Jim Ott’s district from southern Ozaukee County into northern Milwaukee county, and the Dems flipped Rob Hutton’s district that straddled northeastern Waukesha County into Wauwatosa.

[walleye26]

I’m in SD-13, and after the events of last week will surely be voting Dem if one fields (although they have almost no chance of winning).
The St. Croix County GOP posted today to prepare for war: https://www.stcroixrepublican.org/

[walleye26]

4-3 strike down of the mask mandate but the WISC,  conservatives again.

Although if I remember correctly, didn’t it expire Monday anyway?

[walleye26]

4-3 strike down of the mask mandate but the WISC,  conservatives again.

Although if I remember correctly, didn’t it expire Monday anyway?

This prevents it from being enacted again.

The Republican Party won't be happy until all the poors are dead.

Ah, that makes sense. Well, at least this is almost over.

[walleye26]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.

State Superintendent races are heavily Democratic electorates.

[walleye26]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.

State Superintendent races are heavily Democratic electorates.

is there a particular reason why?

the state is as purple as they come on national, gubernatorial, and senatorial races.

Why the blue tinge downballot?

Man, you mean Democrats care more about public education? Shocker!

To answer the question, it’s basically this: conservatives are really motivated for their courts, so SCOWIS races are always close because WOW really turns out for judges. There isn’t a big motivator for State Superintendent. Dane County really turns out for its education races, because it’s the UW/Govt center. Also, the teachers Union gets super involved in these things, so a LOT of teachers vote. In Wisconsin, teachers are pretty blue.

[walleye26]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.

State Superintendent races are heavily Democratic electorates.

is there a particular reason why?

the state is as purple as they come on national, gubernatorial, and senatorial races.

Why the blue tinge downballot?

This isn't specific to Wisconsin but Democrats could benefit from ultra low turnout in nominally non-partisan races thanks to relatively strong statewide unions. The union vote might be in decline but the educational unions of Dane in particular still provide a solid floor of support, particularly when ultra low information voters won't just see the R or the D and cast a vote based on culture. As far as I know the Wisconsin Republicans don't really have any equivalent foundation to drive turnout in low stake elections even if they have a slight edge in a normal election year. Usually it takes either religious issues or taxes to motivate Republican turnout in the Midwest and the State Superintendent really doesn't have much to do with either.

This 100%.

[walleye26]

In the SD-13 special, Jagler is up by less than 7 points (with 20% of Dane’s precincts still outstanding) in a District Fitzgerald won by 18 in 2018.

[walleye26]

In the SD-13 special, Jagler is up by less than 7 points (with 20% of Dane’s precincts still outstanding) in a District Fitzgerald won by 18 in 2018.

He's still got a chance ? how blue are those Dane Precincts ?

The Democrat, Melissa Winker, might have a tiny chance. I don’t know how many absentees are out for this race, but they will lean heavily D. Waukesha and Washington are fully in for Jagler (R) and a “Trump Conservative” candidate is pulling like 7%, pulling down the R margins. Again, I don’t know how many absentees. The Dane precincts are the Marshall, Cambridge, and parts of Deforest areas.

[walleye26]

Milwaukee's turnout looks absolutely horrible, even for a off year election

MKE turnout is usually atrocious in off year elections.

[walleye26]

I’m getting pissed with the reports in WI-SD 13. It had Waukesha listed as 100% in, then just pulled it down to 80%. Jefferson was at 100% in, now down to 95% in. Columbia county the Democrat had a 703-458 vote lead, now both those numbers went to zero for no reason.

[walleye26]

GOP won the 13th Senate district but looks like a massive underperformance to me. What happened?

3 things.
1) State Super is a Dem electorate.
2) The Dem campaigned super hard, and she was also from the most Red part of Waukesha county, Oconomowoc. She won 39% in Waukesha county, so some of her Republican friends probably voted for her.
3) A guy ran with a literal party name of “Trump Conservative” and got about 5% of the vote here, and a GOP primary opponent started a write in campaign, getting what appears to be a bit over 1%. So a few conservatives split up what should have been 57-43 to make it 50-43.

[walleye26]

I also should mention the Dane county portion included Deerfield, Deforest, and Windsor, which are growing fast and combined have added probably a few hundred people since the last election.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/pollsandvotes/status/1379661342827773957?s=21

allow me to refer this twitter guy to my signature on here

2020 truly is the big change

Franklin is the director of the Marquette Law School poll, so he’s a pretty good source for WI politics.

[walleye26]

Republicans really bombed in SD-13,  only winning by ~7% or so in a district Trump carried by 19%

Looks like GOP has a turnout problem right now... who couldve thunk.

Of course this could totally not be indicative of anything. But will be interesting to see in the post-Trump era.

SD-13 had a Trump conservatives third party challenge, so that split up the GOP vote a bit. Don’t read too much into this race.

[walleye26]

Giannis could be elected Governor if he ran right now. Don’t know why he would, but I’m sure it’d be his if he wants it.

[walleye26]

Giannis could be elected Governor if he ran right now. Don’t know why he would, but I’m sure it’d be his if he wants it.

Is he even an american citizen ?

No idea

[walleye26]

State Sen Andre Jacque (R-1st Sen district) is on a ventilator with COVID. He was previously a staunch opponent of vaccine and mask mandates.
https://www.channel3000.com/state-sen-jacque-reportedly-on-ventilator-as-he-remains-hospitalized/

On another hand, former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson (who is currently the UW System Administrator) told the GOP legislature basically to Get F****ed as they said they are going to oversee UW vaccine and COVID policy, trying to wrestle that decision away from the UW Board of Regents.  Thompson said “I’m no stranger to litigation. If they want to fight this, I’ll take them to court and they’ll lose.” 

[walleye26]

https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2022/01/27/imposter-electors-tied-to-fitzgerald-kleefisch-and-jarchow/

The fake electors are tied to Fitzgerald, Jarchow, and Kleefisch. Jarchow said if he was elected AG he wouldn’t look into this at all. Gee, I wonder why.

[walleye26]

Once Janet said she was retiring I got the 2010 style vibes, even though WI is so gerrymandered that even slightly changing the districts around should give them a few assembly seats. Anywhere she would have to take in would be more Republican leaning, unless she took in some tribal areas of Sawyer County.