Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[walleye26]

In SD 8, half of Richfield’s votes dropped. 75-25 R. There are still 4,000 votes left there, which should break 3,200-800 R. However, there are a couple wards in Brown Deer still out that are heavily D. This will be a nail biter.

[walleye26]

In SD 8, half of Richfield’s votes dropped. 75-25 R. There are still 4,000 votes left there, which should break 3,200-800 R. However, there are a couple wards in Brown Deer still out that are heavily D. This will be a nail biter.

This document indicates that all of Washington Co. portion is done. I think Richfield is split in the district; are you sure the outstanding isn't outside SD-08?

They dumped as I posted. It looks like Washington County’s portion of SD8 is nearly done, with a few precincts in Bayside and Brown deer left for Jodi (the D) to add.

[walleye26]

According to the Dane County website, Madison still has 23 outstanding precincts yet, and the county overall still has 34. Dane will probably add another 30,000 votes yet.

[walleye26]

The MKE clerk’s website just posted an update in which Jodi gained about 2,700 votes as Brown Deer and Bayside came in, but I’m not seeing it updating anywhere else…

[walleye26]

The MKE clerk’s website just posted an update in which Jodi gained about 2,700 votes as Brown Deer and Bayside came in, but I’m not seeing it updating anywhere else…

What was she actually down by?  700-something or 3800-something?

WISN had her down 700, before the vote drop; if the MKE clerk is correct, she should be up a couple thousand…I’m not sure.

[walleye26]

That MKE drop is included; all the precincts in MKE county’s portion of SD8 are counted to my knowledge. Unless there are 1,000 absentees outstanding somewhere, this is over, Knodl wins by 1%.

[walleye26]

She also won Pierce

[walleye26]

My question is will Janet get 1M votes? Trempeleau and Grant counties are still out, part of Portage is still out, Menominee City (Dunn County, home to UW-Stout) is still out, as well as 40,000 absentees from MKE.

[walleye26]

Hot take: Wisconsin in 2020-2024 could be more like Florida from 2000-2004 and on.

Remember after 2000, most people thought Florida was trending Democratic and it was just a matter of time until the state turned blue. One would have cited trends in Palm Beach, Broward, Orange, Hillsborough to support this conclusion. However, the GOP got a massive swing in Northern Florida but Dems still had 40-45% in many counties, not to mention they won heavy WWC Pasco, Hernando and Volusia. Dems also stalled out in South Florida and the trend in Palm Beach/Broward reversed a bit. Analysts missed how far to the right these places could swing and how GOP heavy the retiring baby boomers became.

In Wisconsin, much has been made of the rural trend toward the GOP, especially in the driftless and northwest/central part of the state. However, it is becoming clear that Waukesha and Ozaukee with near 50% college grads have trended Dem and yet still have a ton of room for the GOP to fall. OTOH, one wonders if the GOP will stall out a bit in the rurals, even a woke urban candidate like Mandela Barnes only ran 1-2% worse here.

Additionally, exit polls suggest Wisconsin Dems are very strong with voters under 45. This might enable Dems to replace lost older voters over the 2020s and 2030s.

The issue with this takes is that outside of the Driftless region, GOP already is running up the score, routinely getting 70% of the vote in places like Oconto, Florence, Taylor, Green Lake, etc, and the remaining areas that are rural have too many retired liberals from Chicago or the Twin Cities and Native Americans that they can’t get too much more red. Additionally, all of those GOP voters will be dead within 15 years. I hunt up in Rusk County, and there are no people under 30 up there. It’s all old people who’s kids have moved to Eau Claire or the Twin Cities.

[walleye26]

I’m so glad that large chunks of Walker’s legacy are about to be crushed. He was such a stain on our state. For those of you who don’t live here, this is some of the crap we had to put up with under Walker that really harmed our state:

>Extreme GOP gerrymandering
>Massive cuts to education and a “f**k you” attitude toward government workers
>Cancelling a train from MKE to Madison that was already purchased and all that had to be done was lay the track (the state promptly was sued by the train company and had to pay a $70 million fine for breach of contract)
>Regarding the train situation above, Walker tried to bully Obama’s DOT Secretary into diverting funds to pay for highways. DOT told him to pound sand and cancelled a $100 million grant to redo public transit meaning the state had to pay for it ourselves
>Severely restricting DNR oversight on regulating corporate farms, leading to thousands of peoples private wells becoming contaminated with manure
>Restricting DNR authority to regulate high capacity wells, leading to lakes and rivers in central Wisconsin to go dry (seriously, look up disappearing lakes in Central WI)
>Screwing up WI’s deer hunting by eliminating deer management units, in person Registration, and reducing doe tags on public land to reward private landowners (as a hunter, Walker’s overhaul of the deer herd and listening to the dumbf**k Dr. James Kroll pisses me off to this day).
>Billions of dollars given in corporate welfare to protects that often didn’t pan out (looking at you FoxConn)
>Systematically cutting funding to the city of Milwaukee and instead giving more money to WOW
>Just in general using state power to screw Madison and Milwaukee
>Completely ruining local government in this state by cutting state aid to municipalities to the point they are taking on record debt and passing referendums just to survive
>Right to work
>Eliminated the forestry mill tax (and lots of others) that resulted in new expensive user fees to visit state parks and register cars
>Tying the hands of local governments to enact policies like paid family leave or local minimum wage
>Expanded school vouchers to private schools at the expense of public schools
>Always taking the most partisan power grabs possible instead of cooperating and forging bipartisan cooperation

Screw that guy.

[walleye26]

Honestly I wouldn’t put it past the Senate to power grab. LeMaheiu said he won’t move forward with impeaching, but that wouldn’t stop Vos from doing anything, and if they really thought it would benefit them, they would do it. The maps are so rigged that they won’t really pay a price.

It’s a bit of an interesting time.

https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-supreme-court-justice-impeachment-9b28383d30371c8c109b644f9b9a8d72

[walleye26]

Couple notes on my upcoming break down:

- The numbers next to the demographics and the population growth are the changes since the 2010 census.
- 2022 Avg is the average of all 5 statewide races.
- Ratings will be from CNalysis, but I'll let you know if I disagree with any of them.

Let me know if you have any questions, I should have SD-02 done soon.

Can’t wait to see them. Your work is much appreciated.

[walleye26]

The group that is trying to recall Vos announced they do have enough signatures to force a recall. https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-speaker-recall-robin-vos-c12e8391c9e254327c5de344b640d067