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Author Topic: Washington state megathread  (Read 867191 times)
Meeker
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« Reply #1050 on: December 13, 2012, 02:36:02 PM »
Quote from: bgwah on December 13, 2012, 02:31:25 PM
Quote from: Meeker on December 13, 2012, 02:06:02 PM
I thought Sen. Jerome Delvin (R-8th) was going to do the Tim Sheldon routine of serving in both the State Legislature and the County Commission simultaneously, but apparently not. He's resigning which means there will be two solid R vacancies (the other in the 7th): http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/11/13/2168948/jerome-delvin-to-serve-in-legislature.html

Kilmer also resigned a few days ago.

Just out of curiosity, how much money does Sheldon make by being a county commissioner?

About $80,000 a year.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1051 on: December 13, 2012, 03:06:31 PM »
The Pierce County Council gets $108,000 a year. Local government salaries are absurd.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1052 on: August 09, 2013, 11:41:39 PM »
They posted the abstract by LD. Nothing too surprising - McGinn and Harrell doing best in South Seattle, Murray in Central and West Seattle, Steinbrueck in North Seattle.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1053 on: August 10, 2013, 02:01:48 AM »
Quote from: Grad Students are the Worst on August 10, 2013, 01:17:58 AM
One notable feature: Murray's best district -- although also McGinn's best -- contains the parts of Seattle (Capitol Hill and environs) where both Murray (gay marriage) and McGinn (urbanist) and should play best -- and Murray narrowly won.

Murray representing that district (or a variation of it) for 18 years had something to do with that of course. Would be interesting to see the results in an alternative universe where Murray represented the 46th LD.

My sense is that McGinn will pick up the bulk of Harrell supporters and Murray the bulk of Steinbrueck supporters, but I don't really have much hard data to back it up. I'd put Murray as the favorite to win in November, but I think it's still pretty competitive. Those who have been writing McGinn's obituary for the past few months are sorely mistaken, and hopefully they've realized it based on Tuesday's results.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1054 on: August 10, 2013, 02:10:18 AM »
Also, I'm fascinated by the Sawant candidacy. The Stranger support and her 2012 campaign obviously helped her in the 43rd, and I'm sure identity politics played a role (only woman and only person of color in the race), but she still did remarkably well given how little money she spent. And given that she self-identified as a socialist on her doorbelling pieces, which I think is still a net negative (but maybe not?).

If she wins... holy cow I cannot wait to see what the Seattle Times does.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1055 on: August 10, 2013, 03:15:35 PM »
I plan to calculate the 2009 results by current LD sometime before November. Will post when I do.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1056 on: August 21, 2013, 05:59:22 PM »
Davidson didn't submit anything to the voters' guide, which in retrospect is hilarious.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1057 on: September 16, 2013, 01:59:07 PM »
It's over. I thought there was a chance the bulk of Harrell supporters would go to McGinn but apparently not. I don't expect Murray to win by this much but a 10-point margin in his favor would not surprise me.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1058 on: September 25, 2013, 05:06:55 PM »
Their finest staff have moved to the official side
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Meeker
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« Reply #1059 on: September 29, 2013, 08:36:48 AM »
How are people voting on I-522? I don't know much about the issue but I guess I lean 'yes' based on what I've read.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1060 on: October 26, 2013, 08:25:19 PM »
I've decided to vote no on I-522, and I am increasingly annoyed by the Yes campaign. I'm far more bothered by I-517 though. I think if it passes people will come to dislike it pretty quickly.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1061 on: October 26, 2013, 09:45:14 PM »
I think the institutional Republican opposition comes from how much grocery stores hate it. That's where a lot of the No on I-517 money is coming from.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1062 on: November 04, 2013, 06:44:49 AM »
You skipped the State Senate race, good sir
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Meeker
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« Reply #1063 on: November 04, 2013, 03:14:53 PM »
I agree with your winners but differ a little on the margins. I think Eyman will be closer, I-522 not as close and Conlin-Sawant a smidge closer.

Will also be very curious to see the SeaTac minimum wage vote.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1064 on: November 07, 2013, 08:27:30 PM »
The SeaTac minimum wage proposition may be in serious trouble. The batch that was reported at 4:30 today was 57% "No".
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Meeker
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« Reply #1065 on: November 07, 2013, 11:26:06 PM »
SeaTac Prop 1 lost tonight's batch 63-37 (!)

On the other hand, Kshama Sawant won tonight's batch 56-44 (!!) She may pull this off after all.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1066 on: November 07, 2013, 11:35:40 PM »
So King County reports having 213,938 Seattle ballots. They have counted 149,471 of those, leaving 64,467 left.

However, only 86.04% of voters so far have cast ballots for Council Position No. 2. That means there are roughly 55,467 votes left in the race.

Sawant is currently down 4,205 votes. She would need 29,836 of the remaining votes to take the lead. That's 53.79% of the remaining vote, which seems possible given the trend thus far.

Wowza.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1067 on: November 09, 2013, 09:30:51 AM »
McGinn and Sawant have very similar electoral coalitions - the young, people of color, far lefties, readers of The Stranger, etc. As one goes up the other definitely should as well. They both gained in late counting in the primary.

For that reason, I'm doubtful the Comcast issue was a factor.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1068 on: November 09, 2013, 01:27:10 PM »
State Rep. Tami Green is going to run against appointed incumbent State Sen. Steve O'Ban in the 28th LD. Great news.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1069 on: November 09, 2013, 07:36:59 PM »
Quote from: bgwah on November 09, 2013, 02:38:41 PM
Quote from: Meeker on November 09, 2013, 01:27:10 PM
State Rep. Tami Green is going to run against appointed incumbent State Sen. Steve O'Ban in the 28th LD. Great news.

Indeed! I would think this and the 48th are the best opportunities for taking back the State Senate, no?

Yes, the 28th and the 48th are definitely the top targets. After that comes the 45th, and then after that the 6th, 26th, 42nd and 47th, depending on candidate recruitment. Not sure if there are plans to make a play at the 31st (Roach) or the 35th (Sheldon).
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Meeker
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« Reply #1070 on: November 10, 2013, 10:32:14 AM »
I've been looking through old State House results and noticed we used to use a system like the one currently used in New Jersey. Both State House members were elected in the same race and each voter got two votes. It seems 1964 was the last year this system was used. After we ditched it, we started "nesting" the State House districts within the State Senate districts (each State House district was half a State Senate district; 32-A and 32-B, for example). I'm not sure when this practice stopped.

Anybody know of an article or book that talks about why these changes were made? I tried Google but gave up pretty quick.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1071 on: November 12, 2013, 07:53:29 PM »
Really stunning. I think there are about 17,000 votes left for that race, but there's also a couple of hundred or as many as a thousand that may be eligible depending on signature issues.

SeaTac Prop 1 has held on to its lead. Currently up by 43 votes. I think somewhere around 500 votes are left to be counted there.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1072 on: November 13, 2013, 09:50:18 AM »
I don't understand why King County can't release daily precinct results like everyone else. Grrrrr.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1073 on: November 13, 2013, 09:53:46 AM »
Also, it looks like statewide turnout is going to end up at about 45%, which I believe is the lowest since we entered the vote-by-mail era circa 2004.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1074 on: November 13, 2013, 12:42:17 PM »
« Edited: November 13, 2013, 12:45:21 PM by Meeker »
I don't think there's really any data to support the idea vote-by-mail decreases turnout. I mean, hasn't turnout in '06, '08, '10 and '12 been some of the highest in state history? And compare turnout in our local elections to turnout in local elections in other states.

I guess next year will be a good test since there are no statewide elections. 2002 was the last time this happened, and I believe turnout that year was 38%. Hard to see how it'll drop below the 45% we're getting this year. I seem to have completely fabricated the 38% number.

Here's historical data: http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/voter_participation.aspx
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