The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (user search)
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  The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (search mode)
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Author Topic: The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)  (Read 147921 times)
Meeker
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« on: March 04, 2014, 10:26:12 AM »

The "among registered voters in states with a Senate contest" is a nonsense sample. Texas alone is going to skew those numbers toward the Republicans. It's like those silly polls during 2012 of "voters who live in swing states".
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Meeker
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« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2014, 09:19:20 PM »

Only 2% in after an hour and twenty minutes seems rather slow to me.
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Meeker
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« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2014, 11:23:49 PM »

I'm pretty confident there's an error in the AP tabulation that's giving Alameel that lead. The Texas Secretary of State still has him at 48%.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2014, 11:30:59 PM »

The error is in Cameron County - the AP has Alameel at 92% with 66,449 votes, which is obviously absurd.
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Meeker
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2014, 11:42:57 PM »

Uhhh so the AP has gone ahead and called the race, even though their numbers are pretty clearly not correct.
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Meeker
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2014, 11:47:36 PM »

In Cameron County, AP has 70k+ votes cast in the Democratic Senate primary but only 13k in the Governor primary
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Meeker
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2014, 11:49:43 PM »

I have alerted AP's correspondent in Austin via the Twitter.
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Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2014, 11:56:08 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2014, 12:00:08 AM by Meeker »

To be clear, the AP has nearly as many votes being cast in the Democratic Senate primary in Cameron County as were cast there in the 2012 general election.

So I guess now we just sit around and wait for them to figure out they made a mistake.
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Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2014, 11:57:55 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2014, 11:59:37 PM by Meeker »

Aaaand they've fixed it. Still have it called for Alameel. Maybe they'll get lucky and he ends up crossing 50% anyways.
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Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2014, 12:03:41 AM »

And they've rescinded their call "after change in vote count from Cameron County". As if they couldn't have figured out on their own that those numbers were bogus.
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Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2014, 12:10:55 AM »

Aaaand they've fixed it. Still have it called for Alameel. Maybe they'll get lucky and he ends up crossing 50% anyways.

No, he won't make 50% even with Travis late to report.

Yup. 47-49% in the end.
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Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2014, 12:26:39 AM »

Something to ponder: if Texas had a top-two primary, the general election would be between Cornyn and Stockman.
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Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #12 on: June 04, 2014, 12:02:30 PM »

CA-31 is 100% reporting. I'm sure there are a number of uncounted absentees, but it looks like Democrat Aguilar narrowly wins 2nd place in CA-31, avoiding a repeat of 2012. You can see all the close contests in California here.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/close-contests/

Well, Aguilar will win if everything stays the same, but he only leads Gooch by 390 votes.

For the second slot, Politico has CA-31 as too close to call between Aguilar and Gooch. I'm inclined to agree with this. For one, who knows how the absentees voted, and how many there were? It's plausible that there could be way more than 390 absentee ballots. I'm not sure if this district has that many military servicemembers who voted absentee, but if they do, then Gooch could make it to second place, since this demographic is very Republican.

There are thousands of absentee ballots left to count. Next update won't be until 4 PM PT Thursday.
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