2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Meeker]

I disagree with the move to one primary thread FWIW; the primary threads weren't clogging the board. What's clogging the board is peoples' needs to create entirely new threads for single campaign stories and also prediction/support threads.

I personally think we should go to a style of one thread per state and anything new needs to be posted in said thread.

[Meeker]

Is that just Fulton County or all of Georgia?

[Meeker]

Bah.

[Meeker]

Some numbers in. Hank Johnson is at 56% though it's very early. Clay Cox is, rather surprisingly, 15 points behind with 18% in. There may be a regional dynamic here that I'm not aware of though. Tom Graves is hanging out just below 50% and Regina Thomas is doing better than her 2008 run which, given the anti-incumbency mood and Barrow's "No" vote on the healthcare bill, isn't that surprising in my opinion.

[Meeker]

And of course the gubernatorial race - Roy Barnes cleaning up with 61%. Handel is at 30%, Deal at 25%, Oxendine at 19% and Johnson at 17%. I suspect the Republican side will be very regional a la Alabama a few weeks ago so take that 16% that's in with caution.

[Meeker]

Clay Cox is now in third. Conventional wisdom fail.

[Meeker]

Barrow ended up only beating Thomas 58-42. Not to sound too Sam Spade-ish but that one turned out how I expected it to.

[Meeker]

Askins up by 2000 with 50 precincts remaining. I think she's got this.

[Meeker]

Tim Gobble's signs were the highlight of my trip to Tennessee earlier this summer.

[Meeker]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hvaeHllwtw&feature=player_embedded

[Meeker]

Basil Marceaux is listed as a candidate in the 3rd CD Republican primary as well as the primary for Governor. Is that a typo or is he really running for both?

[Meeker]

GOP turnout in 2006 was about 320,000. Looks like we're going to smash that.

Err, it's an open primary with nothing even remotely interesting on the Dem side outside of TN-09. My Obama-voting grandmother voted in the Republican primary.

[Meeker]

Nevermind. There was the senate race that year. But still, this is impressive.

If you say so.

[Meeker]

As Johnny mentioned, around 1/3 of the ballots in Washington won't even arrive until late tonight or tomorrow. Don't expect complete results until the end of the week.

[Meeker]

More than 1/3 of the votes haven't been counted yet and the margins will fluctuate. No conclusions that are based on margins or combined party performance in various seats should be made at this point. The only thing we know for sure is the order.

ETA: I should clarify that the margins won't fluctuate massively but they'll move around enough that I'd wait until Thursday or Friday to do any sort of real analysis.

[Meeker]

As an example, the combined WA-03 percentage for the Democrats is now up to 43.77%

[Meeker]

WA ballot counters = major fail.

The "issue" isn't with the counters. They've counted basically everything they have on hand. The "issue" is with the fact that ballots can legally arrive anytime for the next week and a half or so.

Personally I don't think it's a problem at all but I guess I'm just more patient than most folks.

[Meeker]

What else is next week?  Which state should I focus mapping on?

Florida

[Meeker]

Do we have a legitimate nominee in LA-03?

[Meeker]

Isn't there an Indian-American lawyer running in one of those Kansas seats that's raised a boatload of money too?

Raj Goyle. He's a State Representative though he may be a lawyer by trade. SUSA also only has him down by 7 (42-49).

[Meeker]

Not too surprising but she didn't endorse Miller.

[Meeker]

Not too surprising but she didn't endorse Miller.

There's plenty of time for her to do that later.  She conceded "for the good of the State of Alaska."  I don't think that's because she wants McAdams to win.

Oh I don't think she'll endorse McAdams by any means. But I would be pretty surprised to see her appearing together with Joe Miller or praising him in any way any time in the next two months. A press release saying "we need to elect a Republican" is probably the most she's going to do.

[Meeker]

Could someone remind me again why the Republicans have their own primary but the Democrats are bunched in with the Libertarians and the AIP?

[Meeker]

Final Washington primary numbers can be found over here.

[Meeker]

The New York Times is backing one of Rangel's primary challengers, Joyce Johnson. They also recommend keeping Carolyn Maloney.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/04/opinion/04sat1.html?ref=opinion