LA-04 Runoff, Predictions and Results

[JohnnyLongtorso]

By the way, at what time do polls open/close?

Polls close at 8 PM Central.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

53-45 Fleming. The early voting looks bad for Carmouche.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

53-45 Fleming. The early voting looks bad for Carmouche.

Details or a link would be welcomed

http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/Portals/0/elections/pdf/1126StatewideStats.pdf

Subtracting Orleans, Jefferson and Terrebone gives 7,378 early votes: 5,816 white (78.8%), 1,428 black (19.4%), 134 other (1.8%). Given that the district is a third AA, it doesn't sound very promising to me.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why does LA do this again?

It's not a runoff, it's the general election, because the primary runoff was delayed until November 4.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, Carmouche is at 67% in Caddo with 22/158 in. Maybe I was being too pessimistic.

Although, it would be hilarious if Carmouche and Cao won.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Vernon is coming in... 67% for Fleming. McCain got about 75% there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Good news for Carmouche: 91 precincts in Caddo left.
Good news for Fleming: 100 precincts in Beauregard, Bossier and Vernon left.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bossier is still out, and Fleming will win it, but the question is, will it be by enough?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bossier is still out, and Fleming will win it, but the question is, will it be by enough?

In any case, it won't be nearly enough to make up the precincts still left in Shreveport.

Is that what's left in Caddo? There are only 27 precincts out there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Okay, everything's in except for half of Bossier and 27 precincts in Caddo. If the margins and turnout are the same, Bossier will net Fleming another 1,796 votes, which is less than the margin he trails by currently. I will project Carmouche as the winner here.

Meanwhile, Jefferson is still losing.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Half of the remaining Caddo precincts in, netted Carmouche a couple hundred votes.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Carmouche won Fleming's home parish (Webster). Oops.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Oh. Well, surprise!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Are there any outstanding provisional ballots to speak of?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

44,141    47.69%   Paul J. Carmouche, D    -
44,497   48.07%   John Fleming, R    -
675   .73%   Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., O    -
3,245   3.51%   Chester T. "Catfish" Kelley, N

[JohnnyLongtorso]

CNN called VA-05 for Goode on election night, so I wouldn't put too much stock in their projections.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If Cao wins, the term "one term wonder" must have been designed with him in mind.

And you thought Nick Lampson was screwed...

Micheal Patrick Flanagan.

Who, ironically, got beat by Rod Blagojevich...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I say give him a year. If Cao turns out to be a sane Rep then have him challenge Vitter in a Primary. If he can beat Jefferson I think he can beat Vitter. That way he has a political future. Hell in this state it might just work. If he turns out to be crazy then he can go down to a 30 point defeat in 2010.

I'd like to see a Cao vs. Cazayoux matchup. Battle of the accidental congressmen!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's how Carmouche did percentagewise compared to Landrieu:

Allen: ?, 54.54 Carmouche
Beauregard: 39.70 Landrieu, 31.00 Carmouche (-8.70%)
Bienville: 57.53 Landrieu, 52.13 Carmouche (-5.40%)
Bossier: 39.23 Landrieu, 34.48 Carmouche (-4.75%)
Caddo: 58.44 Landrieu, 56.83 Carmouche (-1.61%)
Claiborne: 52.72 Landrieu, 43.45 Carmouche (-9.27%)
DeSoto: 52.26 Landrieu, 53.31 Carmouche (+1.05%)
Natchitoches: 54.51 Landrieu, 46.72 Carmouche (-7.79%)
Red River: 58.59 Landrieu, 52.68 Carmouche (-5.91%)
Sabine: 38.04 Landrieu, 32.11 Carmouche (-5.93%)
Vernon 40.15 Landrieu, 26.71 Carmouche (-13.44%)
Webster: 48.89 Landrieu, 49.05 Carmouche (+0.16%)

Allen is split between LA-04 and LA-06, so I don't know what her numbers there were for Landrieu. Looks like he really flopped in the south half of the district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

In LA-02, the percentage that the Democrat will get in 2010 will be depressing.

It happens in these districts. You think Walt Minnick has a shot at winning against any non-Bill Sali Republican in 2010?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think it's more likely that LA-06 will get dismantled. LA-02 snakes out to take the AA precincts and the rest gets divided up among the surrounding districts.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Changing the subject, is there any chance Carmouche can still win?  He announced that there are still some provisional ballots left to count, and there will be a recount.

Louisiana uses electronic voting machines, so there's not really anything to recount. I doubt there will even be 350 provisional ballots, let alone enough for Carmouche to come out ahead. Barring some major tabulation error by a poll worker, there's not really any chance of Carmouche winning.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Just as I thought.  Charlie Cook rates LA-02 as likely D in 2010.


I have to complain about him rating LA-04 as tossup, though.  Boo.

Yeah, that's ridiculous. Carmouche was the only Dem who had a shot at the seat. Even if he runs again, it's still likely Republican.