2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[JohnnyLongtorso]

No one mentioned it, but Christie today essentially reached the maximum allowable to fundraise for the June primary.  State election finance law limits primary expenditures at $5 million.

How is that constitutional? The Supreme Court has always struck down campaign spending limits as a violation of the First Amendment.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They just played a Christie ad and a Lonegan ad within 5 minutes of each other on the radio.  The Christie ad said stuff like, "Lonegan wants to raise taxes," and "Elect Chris Christie, a Reagan conservative."  Then the Lonegan ad said, "Christie is lying," "I'm not gonna raise taxes," and "Christie's tax plan is more progressive than mine." 

Does Lonegan realize that the opposite of a progressive tax plan is a regressive one, not a conservative one?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's your answer:

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/07/timkainecom-owned-by-conservative.html

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So come on, gentlemen, where can we watch the results come in?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, New Jerseyites, why is the GOP incumbent in the 23rd AD currently losing his primary?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here are county-level results:

http://elections.nj.com/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NJ_Page_0602.html?SITE=NJNEWELN&SECTION=POLITICS

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, New Jerseyites, why is the GOP incumbent in the 23rd AD currently losing his primary?

Same thing happening in the 23rd Senate District. Marcia Karrow, a moderate Assemblywoman was picked over Doherty to succeed Leonard Lance in the Senate. In turn, Dimao was picked for her assembly seat. Both are losing their primaries right now. Mr. Moderate can correct me, but I would guess at least the senate seat is a potential Democratic pickup if Karrow loses.

Well, first, only Doherty and Karrow are "incumbents." There was a bit of a shuffle when Len Lance moved up to congress, and Karrow was named State Senator. The local GOP then named a new Assemblyman.  No one really knows any of those people for the offices they're running for.

And Democrats have no shot in hell of winning 23 under virtually any circumstances.  It's about the most solidly Republican in the state.

(It's also worth noting that LD23 is Warren and Hunterdon, and the different organizations are backing different candidates.  So you could just be seeing lopsided results.)

Who is backing whom? Nothing from Warren is in yet, but most of the Hunterdon part is.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

These results are taking for-freaking-ever. At least Virginia will be over next week by the time I go to bed.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like the AP just gave Christie a magic check mark.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like the mayor of Morristown got tossed out. What did he do to piss people off?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Per the Star-Ledger:

"Corzine's short list includes Sens. Barbara Buono of Middlesex and Loretta Weinberg of Bergen, and one of those "out of the box" contenders: Randal Pinkett, a Rutgers grad and Rhodes Scholar who was the Season 4 winner of the NBC reality show "The Apprentice."

Christie's short list is a bit longer: Sen. Diane Allen of Burlington; Assemblywoman Mary Pat Angelini of Monmouth; Assemblyman Jon Bramnick of Union; Bergen County Clerk Kathleen Donovan; and Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guadagno."

All I have to say is...YAWN.

If Corzine picks the dude from the Apprentice, then I'll know he's jumped the shark.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Are these particularly competitive districts?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Oh, Jesus H. Christ.

Maybe that third-party guy will break 10% now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, how about Cory Booker '13?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Apparently Mr. Daggett's matching funds are being held hostage because he doesn't have a running mate:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Daggett chose his running mate, some college professor named Frank Esposito: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_J._Esposito

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What about the independent dude with a million on hand? Won't he soak up some votes?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Any chance Christie breaks 60 in Bergen?

No, not really a chance.  Although I could easily see Bergen Republicans finally winning some freeholder seats and picking up the senate seat and both GA seats in LD36.

Q: Does anyone know who is running against Sarlo?  I can't seem to find it, I know Pio Costa and Diorio are running for assembly but I have no idea who is running for senate

Isn't the state senate not up until 2011?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd make a comment about this internal polling circle jerk, but instead let's just all imagine the kind of pithy remark Mr. Moderate would make if it were a Democratic internal poll being discussed.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That's the problem, no one knows and Christie's not talking.  There are no specifics, just the not Corzine effect and cleanliness.

Just out of curiosity, have you ever looked at the issues section of Christie's website?

Actually, I hadn't since the primaries.  Good thing you brought that up, because I'm much more impressed with what he's suggesting now than I was back then.

Probably since he scrubbed the right-wing sections of his website after winning the primary...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Did Norcross put a horse head in his bed or something?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You could make up numbers and they'd be about as accurate as Zogby's polls.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a sad obit of an impressive career:
http://www.northjersey.com/news/state/63025142.html

Codey really should have been the nominee in 2005. Shame.

Any chance he'll make a run in 2013, or for Lautenberg's seat when he (hopefully) retires?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Excellent, the tide has turned, good may just triumph over evil.

When you start referring to any New Jersey politician (except maybe Cory Booker) as good, you know you've lost it.  I cannot begin to understand how much of a hack one must be to not only desire a Corzine win, but also characterize it as good triumphing over evil.

Unfortunately this forum has a significant number of leftish hacks.

They are unable to deal with reality.

Oh, the irony of this statement.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

cristie can haz losing elecshuns?


LOLGASM

The favorability ratings are pretty telling:

Corzine

45% Favorable
52% Unfavorable

Christie

46% Favorable
50% Unfavorable

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor

Interesting in that it's the only poll I've seen with internals even remotely like that.  If it was true, I don't think Christie would be leading at all.

I think Scott Rasmussen is just sitting in his office with a stack of phone books dialing random numbers at this point.