JLT's House Predictions: Final Version, No For Real This Time

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So there.

Likely Democratic

NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)

Lean Democratic

AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup

AK-AL (Don Young - R)
CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
PA-03 (Phil English - R)
PA-12 (Jack Murtha - D)

Pure Tossup

CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
FL-08 (Ric Keller - R)
FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart - R)
ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann - R)
NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)

Republican-Leaning Tossup

AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart - R)
MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)

Lean Republican

IN-03 (Mark Souder - R)
MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
NE-02 (Lee Terry - R)
VA-02 (Thelma Drake - R)
VA-05 (Virgil Goode - R)
WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)

Likely Republican

AZ-03 (John Shadegg - R)
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
IA-04 (Tom Latham - R)
KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
SC-01 (Henry Brown - R)


Democratic Pickups:

1. NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
2. NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
3. AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
4. OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
5. FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
6. VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)
7. IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
8. OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
9. MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
10. NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
11. AK-AL (Don Young - R)
12. CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
13. MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
14. NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
15. NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
16. PA-03 (Phil English - R)
17. NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
18. NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
19. FL-08 (Ric Keller - R)
20. CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
21. MN-06 (Michele Bachmann - R)
22. NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
23. IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
24. CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
25. MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
26. OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
27. ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
28. FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart - R)

Possible Democratic Pickups:

29. WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)
30. FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart - R)
31. NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
32. AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
33. MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
34. MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
35. VA-05 (Virgil Goode - R)
36. NE-02 (Lee Terry - R)
37. VA-02 (Thelma Drake - R)
38. WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)
39. IN-03 (Mark Souder - R)
40. KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
41. AZ-03 (John Shadegg - R)
42. IA-04 (Tom Latham - R)
43. SC-01 (Henry Brown - R)

Republican Pickups:

1. FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
2. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
3. TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)

Possible Republican Pickups:

4. NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
5. GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
6. PA-12 (Jack Murtha - D)
7. KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
8. LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
9. AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
10. PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You forgot nancy boydas seat.

She's under pure tossup (KS-02).

You put Chris Murphy that high?  His district actually went for John Kerry and is likely to go big for Obama.  Not to mention the fact that he won by 10 points over a popular long time incumbent. 

It's a 50-50 district, and what's her face self-destructed with those ridiculous ads. I don't expect it to be seriously competitive, but Cappiello is raising some serious dough.

Also, thanks for the correction of the retiring Mr. Ferguson's name.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

I agree with Phil. Don't worry, it won't happen again.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Johnny, you mocked Sam Spade and me for being self-important enough to have our own threads, and then you created your own thread? Nice one! Just like “conservative” Republicans preaching fiscal discipline and then running up record deficits.

Your list is solid, but I see a couple of questionable rankings. Starting with Democrats, why are PA-11 and AZ-08 (home to two of the few blue-chip GOP recruits) ranked below MS-01 (Greg Davis still the GOP nominee) and CA-11 (Andal is embroiled in a nasty scandal and his fundraising is mediocre)? Gillibrand faces a self-funder who was once New York’s SOS (read: he already has decent name ID), so I’d move that race up to Lean Democratic. Finally, Bill Foster is running against Oberweis again. Bump that race way down your list. If Lauzen were the nominee, I could understand “Lean Democratic” for IL-14, but Oberweis has basically given up and Obama is a huge help there.

I mostly agree with your Pure Tossup rankings. You’re a little more sanguine about NM-01 than I am (I just don’t think the liberal Anglo has the juice to win over fickle independents and Hispanics). WA-08 is a little too high, but that’s no big deal.  AL-02 should be moved down for reasons  already outline by Spade, and I’d move NC-08 and NV-03 up, too. I just can’t see Jon “luckiest incumbent this side of Jim Gerlach” Porter in the same category as CA-04, which is hard-core conservative territory. If Charlie Brown couldn’t defeat Doolittle in 2006, how can he defeat conservative hero McClintock in a POTUS year?

Some other notes –you may be underestimating the competitiveness of CO-04, FL-24, and MI-09. The same enviros that took out Pombo last cycle are now after Musgrave.  The DCCC will spend big there and the Democrats have a top-notch candidate with no personal problems or voting record for GOP operatives to pick through. FL-24 is a scandal seat to watch and MI-09 is the other enviro target race. The LCV and Defenders of Wildlife are surprisingly adroit at politicking – when they target someone, they defeat that politician over 70% of the time.

Welcome to the Congressional prognosticating party, I hope you’ll drop by a couple more times before E-Day.

Thanks for your thoughts. I'm skeptical of Barletta's ability to win, but I think Kanjorski can lose if he's incompetent enough. Plus Kanjorski's got a lot more money. Tim Bee's lurching to the right, inexplicably, causing Jim Kolbe to drop his support. I don't think Sandy Treadwell is that strong a candidate outside of his pocketbook (Sec of State isn't elected in New York -- how many people actually know who that is? I couldn't tell you who Virginia's Secretary of the Commonwealth is). I agree that Foster is probably safer than lean D, but Oberweis still has more money than he is, so he's still investing more into his race than Greg Davis is into MS-01.

AL-02 and CA-04 are probably going to fall down the list eventually. For now, the Democratic candidates have more cash on hand, but that will probably change.

I generally don't think Republican incumbents are in much danger this time around, with a few exceptions like Walberg and Reichert. I don't think Robin Hayes is going to be caught off-guard this time, and I'd like to wait and see whether MI-09 or FL-24 gets any more competitive than just an opponent with strong fundraising. Musgrave also seems to be hard to beat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

CA-04 moved to Likely Republican from Leans Republican - Tom McClintock sucks, but hell, the district voted for Doolittle, and McClintock isn't even scandal-plagued.

MO-06 moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
MO-09 moved to Republicans on the Horizon from Likely Republican - Republicans wisely avoided nominating the Club for Growther, so MO-09 is more likely a lock. Meanwhile, Kay Barnes is winnowing down Graves' lead, but he's still the favorite.

NV-03 moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican - Dina Titus is running a much better campaign than in 2006.

PA-11 moved to Lean Democratic from Democrats on the Horizon - If Kanjorski survives, he needs to be primaried in 2010.

TX-22 moved to Lean Republican from Republican-Leaning Tossup - Pete Olson's only deficiency was money, then he had a Bush fundraiser.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Several changes to my list:


AK-AL moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
AZ-05 dropped from list
AZ-08 dropped from list
CO-04 moved to Pure Tossup from Likely Republican
CT-05 dropped from list
FL-16 moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
FL-21 added to list at Lean Republican
FL-24 moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
IL-14 moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
KS-02 moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
MI-09 moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
MS-01 moved to Democrats on the Horizon from Likely Democratic
WA-08 moved to Lean Republican from Republican-Leaning Tossup

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Many updates, not that anyone cares:

AK-AL - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup
CT-04 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Leans Republican
FL-16 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
FL-24 - moved to Pure Tossup from Leans Republican
GA-08 - moved to Democrats on the Horizon from Likely Democratic
IL-14 - moved to Democrats on the Horizon from Likely Democratic
LA-06 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
MS-01 - dropped from list
NH-01 - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
NY-13 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
NY-20 - dropped from list
NY-26 - moved to Republicans on the Horizon from Likely Republican
OH-01 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Likely Republican
OH-15 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
OH-16 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
PA-11 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic
TX-23 - dropped from list

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What does on the horizon mean again? lol.  I'm very interested in my state's district 1 race.

It means I don't expect it to end up being close, but there's a sliver of a chance of it being competitive. I'm very skeptical of MD-01; I grew up on the Eastern Shore and I know how culturally conservative the place is.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The list, she is updated:

CO-04 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
FL-08 - added to list at Likely Republican
FL-16 - moved to Lean Republican from Lean Democratic
FL-21 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
FL-25 - added to list at Likely Republican
IL-10 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
KY-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
LA-06 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
MD-01 - moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
MI-07 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
MI-09 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
NJ-03 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic
NM-01 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
NM-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
NC-08 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
NY-29 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
PA-03 - added to list at Democratic-Leaning Tossup
PA-04 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
PA-10 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
TX-22 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
WI-08 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic

[JohnnyLongtorso]

AK-AL - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic
CA-11 - dropped from list
CT-04 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
FL-08 - dropped from list
FL-16 - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican
FL-24 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
FL-25 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
GA-08 - dropped from list
ID-01 - moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
IL-14 - droped from list
IN-09 - dropped from list
KY-02 - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican
KY-03 - dropped from list
LA-04 - dropped from list (December election)
MO-06 - dropped from list
MO-09 - moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
NV-03 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
NY-26 - dropped from list
OH-02 - dropped from list
OH-16 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
OR-05 - dropped from list
PA-04 - dropped from list
WI-08 - dropped from list
WY-AL - moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon

Okay, time to get serious. I've dropped every district from the list where I don't think there's a realistic shot of a switch. I've also added a list of projected pickups (in order of likelihood), potential pickups, and depending on the party, wave pickups or upsets. My conservative estimate, at this exact moment, is a net 13 seat pickup for the Democrats.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Thanks to Michele Bachmann's stupidity, she's been added to the list, and I've shifted some of the races to possible pickup territory.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Big shift to the Dems, since I smell a landslide brewing. Also added a few longshots to Likely Republican.

AZ-03 - added to list at Likely Republican
FL-24 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
FL-08 - added to list at Pure Tossup
ID-01 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
IL-11 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
IN-03 - added to list at Likely Republican
MD-01 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
MI-09 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
MN-06 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
NE-02 - added to list at Likely Republican
NV-03 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
NH-01 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
NM-02 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
TX-22 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
VA-02 - added to list at Likely Republican
VA-11 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
WA-08 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
WY-AL - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I know CO-6 is a very republican district but it is open this year. Any chance the democrat could get close there? How are the candidates? I know Musgrave is basically done but getting Tancredo's seat would be especially sweet.

Nope. The Republican running isn't from the ideologue wing of the CO GOP and has been elected statewide as both State Treasurer and Secretary of State. He's a safe bet for election.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hooray for updates:

CA-04 - moved to Pure Tossup from Likely Republican
GA-08 - added to list at Democratic-Leaning Tossup
FL-21 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
FL-25 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
IN-03 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
IA-04 - added to list at Likely Republican
MO-09 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
NY-25 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
OH-01 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
OH-15 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
SC-01 - added to list at Likely Republican
TX-22 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
VA-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
VA-05 - added to list at Likely Republican
WA-08 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup

[JohnnyLongtorso]

List is in the OP; those are my latest updates.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Last update barring any surprises on Monday.

AL-02 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
ID-01 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
MD-01 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
NJ-07 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
PA-12 - added to list at Democratic-Leaning Tossup

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Last-minute changes:

NE-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
PA-10 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
PA-11 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
VA-05 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican

Also fiddled with the pickup lists; it's now a net 25-seat gain for the Dems.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, let's see how I did. Bold ones I got right, strikethroughs (on the sure pickups lists) I whiffed, and the ones that are still in question are italicized. First, for the Dems:

Democratic Pickups:

1. NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
2. NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
3. AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
4. OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
5. FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
6. VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)
7. IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
8. OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
9. MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
10. NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
11. AK-AL (Don Young - R)
12. CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
13. MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
14. NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
15. NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
16. PA-03 (Phil English - R)
17. NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
18. NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
19. FL-08 (Ric Keller - R)
20. CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
21. MN-06 (Michele Bachmann - R)
22. NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
23. IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
24. CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
25. MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
26. OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
27. ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
28. FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart - R)

21/28 with one two still out. 75% is a passing grade, I guess. I was irrationally exuberant with the Minnesota seats, and I guess the Cubans are still behind the Diaz-Balarts. I am never listening to an Alaska poll again, however. I was also expecting Obama to have coattails for Dan Seals. Oh well.

Possible Democratic Pickups:

29. WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)
30. FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart - R)
31. NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
32. AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
33. MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
34. MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
35. VA-05 (Virgil Goode - R)
36. NE-02 (Lee Terry - R)
37. VA-02 (Thelma Drake - R)
38. WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)
39. IN-03 (Mark Souder - R)
40. KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
41. AZ-03 (John Shadegg - R)
42. IA-04 (Tom Latham - R)
43. SC-01 (Henry Brown - R)

Some of these ended up being close. Others, like the ones at the bottom of the list, were not. Overall, no Democratic pickups were complete surprises, though.

Republican Pickups:

1. FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
2. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
3. TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)

2/3, with Kanjorski surviving by the skin of his teeth. Maybe time to retire, Paul?

Possible Republican Pickups:

4. NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
5. GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
6. PA-12 (Jack Murtha - D)
7. KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
8. LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
9. AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
10. PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)

Certainly, of the seven on this list, Nancy Boyda and Don Cazayoux were not the two I was expecting to lose. Chris Carney and Jim Marshall ended up with double-digit margins, so lucky them.

Overall I'm pretty pleased with my predictions, especially since this is the first time I've attempted it with House races.