VA-GOP opts for convention; Davis likely to drop out (user search)
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  VA-GOP opts for convention; Davis likely to drop out (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-GOP opts for convention; Davis likely to drop out  (Read 2587 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« on: October 14, 2007, 08:54:56 AM »

Why would Davis be in any danger next year? He won easily enough in 2006.

He won with the lowest percentage of his career since he defeated Leslie Byrne in 1994, and his opponent only had 1/10th of the cash he had. If Leslie Byrne or Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, runs, they will be fully funded, and the Democratic Presidential nominee will more than likely carry the district in 2008 (Kerry lost it by less than one percent). All this in an environment that's not looking like it will be much, if any, better for the Republicans than 2006 was.

It will also be a blow to his image if his wife loses her State Senate seat this year, which is looking more and more likely. He's been campaigning for her constantly, and she's recently dropped $750,000 in last-minute TV ads -- this for a State Senate district that will probably have a turnout of under 50,000 voters.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2007, 09:43:48 AM »

Kerry won 45.5% statewide in 2004, and won 49.2% in the 11th district, performing 3.7% better.

Kaine won 51.7% statewide in 2005, and won 55.7% in the 11th, performing 4.0% better.

Webb won 49.6% statewide in 2006, and won 54.7% in the 11th, performing 5.1% better.

No, there's absolutely no indication that the 11th is trending Democratic.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2007, 01:29:58 PM »

OMGZ.

va-09 is trending gop. 

watch out boucher!

Your argument is irrefutable. I yield.
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