The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

In regards to the redistricting talk, I should note that the earmuffs are leaving no matter what, the main reason for it wasn't to shore up Slaughter who was never in danger, but the old Republican Rep from Buffalo Jack Quinn. His old seat was over 59% Gore, the earmuffs removed the black part of Buffalo and cut it down to about 54% Gore. In fact of the trio of Slaughter, (retired in 2002 due to redistricting) Democrat John LaFalce and Quinn who represented the region from Rochester to Buffalo, Quinn had by far the strongest Gore district. But even the post-redistricting seat was still too Dem to be held without Quinn. So there's really no one who'd be pushing to keep the earmuffs. Higgins and Hochul might have to have an interesting talk though.

I put up a map over in the New York redistricting thread that passed the earmuffs to Hochul, should she win, making the district about 56-43 Obama. Higgins has locked down his district; as long as he doesn't retire, it's safe as-is, he doesn't need strengthening. He strikes me as a backbencher, so he must have some local appeal that I'm not aware of.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, any predictions for tomorrow? As a reminder, the last polls were 42-38-12 (Siena) and 42-36-13 (PPP), both with Hochul in the lead.

My guess:

Hochul - 43
Corwin - 42
Davis - 14
Murphy - 1

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If the PPP poll is any indication, Davis has bled off most of his Democratic Party support, so any further erosion might be more of a boon to Corwin. If Davis drops into single-digits, then Corwin will probably win. However, I still think the polling is pretty close to what we'll see tomorrow, because Davis voters seem to really hate both of the other candidates.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A more detailed prediction:

Hochul wins big in Erie (>50%), narrowly carries Niagara and Monroe. Corwin wins Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming, and Livingston. Davis does best in the rural areas.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pete Sessions seems to be pretty dour on Corwin's chances.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Would Hochul had filed it in her own office?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A 50/50 Hochul/Corwin split in Niagara would track with a close race, maybe slightly leaning to Hochul.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

OTOH, Hochul is keeping it close in Livingston, so this may be a pretty easy win for her.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, the Erie numbers are brutal for Corwin. Not sure how she makes up this deficit, especially if Hochul does as well in the other rural counties as she is doing in Livingston.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

These results have also come in shockingly quick.

They finally learned how to use the new voting machines, I suppose.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Orleans just dumped their entire county at once: 47-40 Corwin.

genesee might be interesting, there is one significant college town in the county, though obviously school's out for summer.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

The total Dem + Green vote is currently 49.2%. Davis' supporters would have had to go about 80-20 to Corwin for her to win. I don't really think there was much of a spoiler effect in play.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Actually, this probably means that Buerkle is the upstate rep. on the chopping block. Shift NY-28's portion of Buffalo into NY-26, split Syracuse between NY-23 and NY-28, and the Democrats are good.