US House Redistricting: Michigan

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A draft plan got leaked.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The 12th (Dingell).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I tried drawing it in DRA to show which existing districts the new MI-09 comes from:



It's not 100% accurate, because the precincts in Macomb County don't match up with the map, but the district is essentially the existing MI-12 less Oak Park and Southfield, plus some more of Sterling Heights from MI-10 and Royal Oak and Bloomfield Hills (plus some linking territory) from MI-09.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Peters might as well run against McCotter if this map becomes law; more of his existing district is put in McCotter's than in the new MI-09. He can just move to Troy or Birmingham.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

5 safe Democratic districts (pink, red, brown, sky blue, yellow), 5 safe Republican districts (teal, green, purple, magenta, light green), 4 swing districts (grey, blue, both light purple districts). County splits are minimized, municipalities are kept intact (except for Detroit, obviously). The only district I'm not really happy with is the grey one, but it's hard to put those counties south of Detroit anywhere logical.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A draft plan got leaked.

So I drew these districts in DRA now that there's partisan data, and here's what I came up with:

MI-01 - 50-49 Obama (was 50-48 Obama)
MI-02 - 50-48 McCain (was 51-48 McCain)
MI-03 - 50-49 Obama (was 49-49 McCain)
MI-04 - 50-48 Obama (no change)
MI-05 - 63-36 Obama (was 64-35 Obama)
MI-06 - 53-45 Obama (was 54-45 Obama)
MI-07 - 51-47 Obama (was 52-46 Obama)
MI-08 - 52-46 Obama (was 53-46 Obama)
MI-09 - 58-40 Obama (was 56-43 Obama)
MI-10 - 50-48 McCain (no change)
MI-11 - 50-48 Obama (was 54-45 Obama)
MI-12 - 67-32 Obama (MI-15 was 66-33 Obama)
MI-13 - 85-14 Obama (was 85-15 Obama)
MI-14 - 79-20 Obama (was 86-14 Obama)

Looks like status quo for all the Republican districts except for McCotter's, which gets 3-4 more points Republican.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

MI-09, the Levin CD, is more Dem rather than less?  Are you sure Johnny?

The previous CD numbers are for MI-09. The old MI-12 was 65-33, which is a drop of about 7%.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, here's the proposed map:



It's almost exactly the same as the draft map:



Except the 14th doesn't dip back down into Wayne County, and the 11th pulls in Birmingham.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's an alternate universe map where Virg Bernero won in a landslide, sweeping the Democrats into a State Senate majority at the same time:



MI-01 (blue) - 54-44 Obama
MI-02 (green) - 55-43 McCain
MI-03 (purple) - 49-49 Obama
MI-04 (red) - 49-49 McCain
MI-05 (yellow) - 61-37 Obama
MI-06 (teal) - 55-43 Obama
MI-07 (grey) - 50-48 Obama
MI-08 (light purple Lansing/Ann Arbor) - 61-37 Obama
MI-09 (sky blue) - 57-42 Obama
MI-10 (magenta) - 53-46 McCain
MI-11 (light green) - 62-36 Obama
MI-12 (light purple SE) - 59-39 Obama
MI-13 (pink) - 74-25 Obama, 50.2% black VAP
MI-14 (brown) - 79-20 Obama, 50.1% black VAP