Advertising Notes - Where the Dems and Reps are Putting Their Money

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The obvious card for Manchin to play is the Byrd card. Put together an ad with Byrd's family members saying "blah blah blah, my [father/grandfather/uncle/second cousin once removed] Robert Byrd served West Virginia for years, and Joe Manchin is the man to continue his legacy".

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Smart move by the NRSC. I really think that this one is going to go Republican in November. Manchin looks good now, but he could have a glass jaw—no one has ever tried swinging at it before.

The obvious card for Manchin to play is the Byrd card. Put together an ad with Byrd's family members saying "blah blah blah, my [father/grandfather/uncle/second cousin once removed] Robert Byrd served West Virginia for years, and Joe Manchin is the man to continue his legacy".

"It's not the Kennedy Byrd seat. It's the peoples' seat."

"68% of likely voters in this fall’s election approve of the work Byrd did in the Senate, and 52% want his successor—Manchin or Raese—to continue his legacy." Also, Massachusetts != West Virginia. If anything, it's more like PA-12, where Burns' anti-Murtha ad hurt him.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They've already been running ads in the Salisbury media market, which includes Sussex County.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Is there some way to browse these independent expenditures?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DCCC drops $500k in NY-23. This was before Hoffman announced his withdrawal.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

National Review reports that the DCCC canceled one week of previous ad buys in TX-17 (Edwards) and the Terre Haute and Evansville TV markets that encompass IN-08 (Hill) and IN-09 (Open; Ellsworth).

You've got those two backwards.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DCCC has canceled everything but the last week of ads in AZ-08. No idea what to make of that; if Giffords is toast, why keep any ads at all?

DSCC adds another $1.2 million to Connecticut.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DCCC pulls out of OH-01, which they should have done a long time ago, really.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like Tom Ganley is giving up in OH-13.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Large outlay by the NRCC.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

More pruning by the DCCC. Giving up on holding KS-03, IN-08, and TN-08. Also some cutbacks in Charlotte, either for NC-08 or SC-05. Also mentions "minor" adjustments in AR-01, CO-04, IA-03, SD-AL, TX-17, and Phoenix (AZ-01/AZ-05). And canceling everything in LA-02, but that's probably because Cao is done for.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Phoenix actually covers nearly all of the state outside of the Tucson area:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media:Tvmarkets.gif

So it's the entire district less the northeastern corner of Apache County, which seems to be in the Albuquerque market.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2010/10/national_democrats_not_giving.html

Kind of ironic that the DCCC is giving up on people like Halvorson, who was basically safe up until a month ago, but Perriello, Kravotil and Nye, the candidates who were supposed to be endangered since December of 2009, are still apparently in the race.

That may be a testament to the relative strength of the candidates. Halvorson sailed in thanks to an incompetent Republican candidate (a replacement after the original dropped out) and Obama coattails. Perriello, Kratovil, and (to a lesser extent) Nye all had to fight tooth and nail to win. So while the latter group have known they'll be in for a fight since they got elected, Halvorson may have just assumed she'd slide into a second term with no problem, so she's gotten caught flat-footed by Kinzinger.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

SSP has a handy chart of the DCCC's $21.5 million outlay:

http://swingstateproject.com/diary/7865/dccc-drops-215m-on-66-districts