ID-Qualtrics: Rep. Minnick (D) leads by 2:1

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Minnick opposes all of that which Obama proposes. The end. I have not thought this seat was really in play, unless and until I saw something to the contrary, and then it would have surprised me, although in this crazy environment, not shocked me.

"All" may be a slight exaggeration.

He's surprisingly pro-gay rights; he voted for both the Matthew Shepard Act and the DADT quasi-repeal (that went nowhere, granted).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Good for Minnick.

This poll is proof that November will truly be 435 individual races, and not just one national poll. Let all Democrats who lose understand this: It didn't have to be so. If Minnick can win, you could have too.

Yeah, all they needed was a self-destructing opponent who loses a primary to a nutcase that can't raise any money and is ignored by the national Republicans.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The important thing about Minnick is that if he wins in 2010, he becomes entrenched.  This means that he builds up a strong resume to become the first Democratic Idaho Governor or Senator in a very long time when one of those seats next opens up.

Dude will be 68 in a week or so; he's not headed for a long and fruitful career in Congress. Either way, when the Republicans come up with a decent candidate (which, admittedly, is a challenge for them in this district), he'll probably lose.