Illinois Primary Thread

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hynes has the money and the momentum.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here are my complete, random, likely-off predictions:

Gov:

Hynes - 53
Quinn - 47

McKenna - 27
Dillard - 22
Ryan - 20
Brady - 14
Andrewjzklsejysky - 12
Proft - 5

Sen:

Alexi - 39
Hoffman - 32
Jackson - 25
Other - 3

Kirk - 76
Hughes - 21
Other - 3

10th CD:

Dan Seals - 52
Julie Hamos - 37
Elliot Richardson - 11

Bob Dold - 36
Beth Coulson - 32
Dick Green - 27
Other - 5

14th CD:

Ethan Hastert - 65
Randy Hultgren - 35

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Seals and Dold are leading in Lake as well (which aren't reporting in the statewide totals), so it looks like they'll be the nominees.

Also, amusingly, in the 8th, Joe Walsh is leading the Republican field despite apparently not having spent any money (there's no FEC report for him). Life's been good for him.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Anbody know anything about which GOPer is the strongest in the general election in the 8th Congressional District.

U.S. House - District 8 - GOP Primary
34 of 503 Precincts Reporting - 7%
 Name Party Votes Vote %
 Walsh, Joe GOP 681 31%
 Beveridge, Dirk GOP 628 29%
 Rodriguez, Maria GOP 401 18%
 Geissler, Christopher GOP 214 10%
 Dawson, John GOP 184 8%
 Jacobs, Gregory GOP 74 3%
 

Beveridge raised the most money ($178k), and Rodriguez is an elected official (Long Grove village president) who raised the second most ($106k). As I said before, I have no idea why Walsh is winning, unless he dumped a bunch of his own money in at the last minute or something. Doesn't really matter, Bean is as safe as any Democrat could be in that district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hoffman is now up 14% in Lake.

In Cook, Alexi ist only leading by 6%. That's not very strong, IMO.

All three of the major candidates for Senate are from Chicago.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Just added up the Cook County and Lake County totals (the county reporting is almost complete) and Julie Hamos would need to make up about a 400-vote margin from what's left. Not likely to happen with only about 45/290 precincts left in Cook, where she only leads by 600ish votes.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think Coulson went all Coakley in the primary; she assumed she'd be the nominee and didn't raise much money.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looking at the general weakness/lackluster performances of a lot of other candidates tonight, this further reaffirms my belief about Kirk being a very formidable candidate, regardless of what race he's in.

You don't think being under 60% against a bunch of complete nobodies (except for Hughes, I guess) is a lackluster performance?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Republican gubernatorial primary map is going to be interesting. Has Ryan actually carried a single county?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Geez, when's the last time someone won a statewide primary with 20% of the vote?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

According to the DuPage County website, half the precincts are in and Ryan is winning:

http://www.dupageresults.com/results/2010_02_results/republican-1.htm

For the Dems, it's Quinn by a 51-49 margin:

http://www.dupageresults.com/results/2010_02_results/democratic-1.htm

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Or, gee, you could just have the Lt. Governor elected separately from the Governor. Lots of states do it and they haven't collapsed into anarchy. Well, except for South Carolina.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Cohen drops out:

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/politics/cohen-steps-down-83685472.html

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's the former two-term Blue Dog Congressman David Phelps, who lost to John Shimkus when their districts were merged in 2002. He's an assistant secretary for the Illinois DOT, and is in his 60s.

Hynes might as well just wait until 2014 to run again. Quinn's damaged goods, and it's got to be a tossup at best for him (thanks only to Brady winning the nomination).