I think Bayh's vote on the Health Care Bill will determine how he does. I think the election could get interestingly close if Bayh votes for the Health Care Bill. I'll tell you now, I think Ellsworth's approval ratings dropped 15 points or more since voting for that Health Care Bill. I campaigned for him in `06 and `08, and I am extremely ticked with him now.
The thing you have to respect about Ellsworth -- whether you like the health care bill or not -- is that he voted for it knowing it was a loser in his district and may well cost him his seat. Of course, the same would be true of a Republican who voted against it in a district where the issue was a winner. Dave Reichart might be that guy.
But yeah, you're right. We will probably see both Ellsworth and Donnelly dumped in 2010.
How much of a democrat is Ellsworth. I mean he was the former sherrif right? I don't necessarily think his vote was principled - he needs big money to win as a democrat in Indiana, and the dems would hang him out to dry if he didnt vote for it. I feel like both these guys jumped in only because they had a chance to win as a democrat. The other question is which are most likely to switch to the republican party? I know Indiana (my family for one) dems, and they are about as moderate of dems as you can get. Bayh for all intents and purposes has been the only moderate democrat outside of Lieberman.
Sheriff is a partisan office in Indiana, so presumably Ellsworth had run as a Democrat before running for Congress.
If you're looking for potential party-switchers, look to the South, not the Midwest. Bobby Bright, Parker Griffith, Travis Childers, and Jim Marshall could easily flip to the Republicans if they're still in office when they gain control.
