It will be interesting to see how NoVA votes this year. We'll see just how partisan this trend really is. As for both VA and NJ, I had always thought NJ would be tougher for a GOP pickup, it just goes without question when compared with VA.
I've been using 2005's results as a baseline, since it was literally a 50/50 split:
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=51&year=2005&f=0&off=9Alexandria/Arlington/Falls Church are reliably 70% Dem, Fairfax tends to go 55-60% Dem, and Prince William/Loudoun have become swing counties. Deeds didn't win either of the last two last year, so even if he ekes out a win, I doubt he'd win either. He'll still win Fairfax, but probably on the low end of the 55-60%.
Incidentally, the last statewide Republican candidate to win Fairfax was Jerry Kilgore in 2001, but he only won by about 5% while blowing out Don McEachin 60-40 statewide.
