Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Ahnold picked State Sen. Abel Maldonado as his new Lt. Governor, giving the Democrats a good shot at picking up his seat.

Also, the SD-37 election in Virginia has been set for January 12. Republican nomination will be on December 1. I can't find when the Democratic nomination is, but it doesn't matter, as it looks like it'll be Marsden.

For SD-8, the Republican nomination (the de facto election) will be decided on December 5. No word on when the actual election is, but it doesn't matter, as the Democrats aren't even going to put someone up for that one.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

By a 78-22 margin, no less. It was 70-30 in 2008, so using Carl logic, this is terrible news for the Republicans.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The field is set (more or less) for the two State Senate special elections in Virginia on 1/12:

In the 8th, businessman Jeff McWaters defeated Virginia Beach City Council member Rosemary Wilson for the Republican nomination. He will likely be unopposed in the general (no Democrat is running, and independents must file by next Friday).

In the 37th, Republicans nominated former school board member Steve Hunt to face off against Democratic Del. Dave Marsden.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Republicans picked up KY HD-96. SD-14 is still pending, but the Republican currently has a 2,088-vote lead.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.

Especially as they've picked up one (or was it two?) seats in Kentucky in other special elections this year. Where in Kentucky bist this seat? Numbers can confuse me, especially when tired.

Central KY, southeast of Louisville.

http://www.lrc.ky.gov/GIS/Senate%20Simple/s014s.pdf

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm about to have a heart attack. The inept, moribund Virginia Beach Democratic Party actually put someone up against Jeff McWaters in the 8th Senate district. He won't get anywhere near winning, but at least I have someone to vote for on January 12.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm about to have a heart attack. The inept, moribund Virginia Beach Democratic Party actually put someone up against Jeff McWaters in the 8th Senate district. He won't get anywhere near winning, but at least I have someone to vote for on January 12.

If they're that bad how they did take out Thelma Drake?

Two reasons: one, Drake was a terrible empty suit of a candidate. Two, Obama coattails. Nye won by a larger margin than Obama did in the 2nd district, but the raw vote totals for Obama and Nye are almost exactly the same in each locality, except in Norfolk, where Obama got about 500 more votes. Nye's probably not going to survive unless the Republican primary gets extremely nasty.

The VBDP can't even come up with candidates most of the time, which is why I'm so surprised. Both the Democrats that won election to the House of Delegates in 2007 lost, and out of the four Republican incumbents, only one has had an opponent in the last two elections. Hell, the 8th hasn't had a Democratic candidate run since the incumbent Democrat lost in 1991.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Upcoming special election in Minnesota SD26. Sen. Dick Day is resigning January 8 to lead a PAC lobbying to expand gambling allowed at the state's two horse racing tracks (I actually agree with him on this, but talk about a minor issue to resign over.) Primary will be January 12 if needed and election January 26. GOP hold is most likely but I won't rule out a pickup. Call it Lean GOP.

A local mayor (Roy Srp of Waseca, not a typo apparently) is running on the Independence Party line. Any chance of an IP pickup?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's a special election for Rhode Island House District 62 today. Obama got about 70% there so it's probably not worth noting.

Ridiculously low turnout (the last special for a RI House district was about 1,000 votes):

Democrat Mary Duffy Messier - 296 votes (61%)
Republican Thomas Clupny - 175 votes (36%)
Independent Paul A. Dinsmore - 15 votes (3%)

Which does not include 50-ish absentee ballots.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's a special election for Rhode Island House District 62 today. Obama got about 70% there so it's probably not worth noting.

Ridiculously low turnout (the last special for a RI House district was about 1,000 votes):

Democrat Mary Duffy Messier - 296 votes (61%)
Republican Thomas Clupny - 175 votes (36%)
Independent Paul A. Dinsmore - 15 votes (3%)

Which does not include 50-ish absentee ballots.

Do you have a link to those results?

http://www.rifuture.org/myblog/district-62-special-election-results.html

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Another one to look forward to -- New Hampshire's 16th Senate district, previously held by Republican Ted Gatsas, who was elected mayor of Manchester. Will occur February 16.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Mike Parry (GOP candidate in MN-26) may have blown it. He posted some stuff on Twitter about Obama being a "Power Hungry Arrogant Black Man" and compared the Democratic Party to pedophiles. His excuse was that those comments were "out of frustration over federal spending". Yeah exactly, that leads to racist comments easily.

Still being a special election that could help him if it encourages the crazies to turn out. Srp's chances probably went up though since he could scare away moderate Republicans to him.

When will Republicans learn not to abuse Twitter?

Fundraising reports through the end of the year for the Virginia Senate elections have been released.

In the 8th, Republican Jeff McWaters raised $821,000 (over half of it a loan from himself), while Democrat Bill Fleming raised $21,000 (which is almost all a contribution from himself). Yes, that's a 40-1 fundraising advantage. I don't know why McWaters needs this so much he is spending a half million of his own money.

In the 37th, Democrat Dave Marsden has raised $380,000, while Republican Steve Hunt has raised $238,000. Both candidates have received a majority of their funds from their respective parties. Interestingly, Marsden has gotten $40,000 more in last-minute contributions since January 1, while Hunt has gotten only $1,000. I guess the Democrats are banking on outspending Hunt to death.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Virginia 8th and 37th Senate elections are tomorrow. My predictions:

8th - Bill Fleming has actually been running a spirited campaign, but there's no way he's winning. I'd say it's about a 70-30 McWaters victory.

37th - This one is a total tossup, I think whoever wins will top out at 51%. My guess is Hunt holds it for the Republicans.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's also a runoff in California's 72nd Assembly district (I think this was the one with the lobbyist-schtupping). Results will show up here (after 11 PM Eastern): http://www.ocvote.com/live/72ndgen/results.htm

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Results so far:

McWaters crushes Fleming 79-21 with 30/36 precincts in.

Marsden leads Hunt 52-48 with 18/40 precincts in.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Of the eight precincts left, four were won by the Republican (Cuccinelli) in 2007, while three were won by the Democrat (Oleszek). One precinct is new since 2007. I can't predict the winner at this point.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Three precincts left and Marsden's up by 400 votes. I think he's won. Amazingly.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Moderates might also have been scared off by Hunt, who's a firebreathing conservative. Cuccinelli was as well, but he worked hard to maintain a genial, acceptable-to-moderates image and to ingratiate himself with voters.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It has to be within, I think, 0.5% for the state to pick up the tab for a recount. It hardly matters, it's not like there's anything to recount. In the last recount (for a House of Delegates district), the margin changed by something like 3 or 4 votes.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That's correct.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The northern end (north of I-264) of the 8th district is dominated by country club Republicans, while the southern end (south of Dam Neck road) is still pretty rural. Of course, in the middle is NAS Oceana, so you've got military there too. There are a few Democratic precincts in the district mostly due to apartment complexes, but it's overall solidly Republican. Incidentally, John McCain's ex-wife and son live here.

The black population in Virginia Beach is along the border with Norfolk and in the Green Run area (around where Lynnhaven Parkway and Rosemont Road intersect). And yes, Green Run is split up between the 8th and 14th Senate districts.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I would imagine that the four last night were the first ones of the year, unless there was one last week (if there were, they weren't discussed here).

Edit: Regardless, I started a list in the first post of the thread.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There were two more in New Hampshire last night, both Republican seats that did stayed Republican:

In the Rockingham-8 district, ex-State Rep. Kenneth Weyler defeated Norm Hurley by a 1,005-287 vote margin.

In the Sullivan-2 district, Steven Cunningham beat ex-State Rep. Arthur Jillette by a 616-314 vote margin.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've edited the first post in the thread to include upcoming special elections. If there are others that are set, let me know and I'll put them in.

Another one coming up in Virginia is Dave Marsden's House of Delegates seat (HD-41). Democrat Eileen Filler-Corn (yes, that is her actual name), who worked in the Warner and Kaine administrations and ran for the seat way back in 1999 (lost by 17%) has filed to run. Republican Kerry Bolognese, who held Marsden to a 200-ish vote margin last year, is also running.

Filler-Corn's ties to Warner and Kaine should give her a leg up on fundraising. Also, the district is slightly more Democratic than SD-37. Bolognese will have the advantage of name recognition from his previous run, but he won't have McDonnell's coattails to help him this time.