1. Trump will win Ohio by double digits but Iowa will be slightly closer (but not by much). Both are called within 30 minutes of poll closing.
2. Virginia and New Mexico will be decided by the same margin
3. Trump loses Michigan narrowly but John James wins the senate race
4. Biden will drop out after South Carolina
5. Wisconsin's rural counties and WOW counties trend red as more establishment Republicans come on board.
6. Pennsylvania turnout % decreases from 2016 and Trump wins it by a wider margin than expected
7. Republicans come a few seats away from retaking the house but ultimately fail
8. The democrat will get less votes in Texas then Beto did in 2018
9. Maricopa County goes for Trump and Mark Kelly and Trump wins Arizona by 3
10. Trump improves with black and hispanic voters over 2016 even if Kamala is the nominee
11. Trump aggressively campaigns in Oregon and it votes to the right of Colorado
12. Democrats win, albeit narrowly, with white college educated voters
13. Florida gets called for Trump before 10 PM.
14. Dems win the popular vote by over 4 percent
15. Georgia goes red by 3.5 and Texas goes red by 6
1) No. Trump can win OH by 8-10 but Iowa will be closer, and will get called much later in the night.
2) Possible but unlikely. NM will be D+10-13, VA will be D+5-7
3) Possibly. But James has a steep hill (but easier than 18')
4) very unlikely.
5) Possible, there is still some room for growth in rural areas.
6) Eh, will still be razor thin either way.
7) Possible.
Possible
9) possible. I think both winning margins would be narrower than 3.
10) I think he'll improve slightly.
11) No chance in hell Oregon will vote right of Colorado. CO's margin will be half that of OR.
12) Possible
13) If it's Bernie, Warren or Pete.
14) Unlikely unless a recession hits.
15) Actually quite probable. GA will be 2.5-4 and TX will be 5-8 (both depend largely on the nominee)
