Predict the 2024 election (user search)
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Author Topic: Predict the 2024 election  (Read 7231 times)
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
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« on: May 12, 2019, 12:28:31 PM »

Joe Biden elected in 2020:



✓ Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/HUD Secretary Peter Buttigieg (D-IN): ca. 280 EV. (49.81%)
Governor Ronald DeSantis (R-FL)/Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO): ca. 260 EV. (47.05%)


Donald Trump reelected:



✓ Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Representative Colin Allred (D-TX): ca. 400 EV. (54.21%)
Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN)/Governor Ronald DeSantis (R-FL): ca. 140 EV. (44.87%)

If the Democratic nominee is winning over 400 electoral votes, they're certainly winning Ohio.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
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Posts: 3,599


« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2019, 11:14:32 PM »

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

1). Populism is a meaningless term
2). Trump is perhaps the most neoliberal president in history on everything not relating to trade, and the vast majority of Republican politicians are just as neoliberal (if not more neoliberal) than he is.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
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Posts: 3,599


« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2019, 09:38:17 AM »

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down

Whether or not he "personally subscribes" to it, he's clearly implemented Randian policies. the only difference between his economic policies and Ronald Reagan's are on free trade, on everything else he's as far-right, if not more far-right, than Reagan was.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,599


« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2019, 04:04:42 PM »

Am I the only one who thinks its hilarious he doesn't have ME-AL flipping?

And every state in New England would likely flip before Hawaii and Maryland, lol.
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