Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards) (user search)
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  Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards) (search mode)
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #50 on: January 05, 2020, 11:51:56 PM »

My post-Globes takeaways, with the usual caveat that it's just the Golden Globes:

Dern and Pitt seem like done deals now. I think the Supporting categories are basically wrapped.

Zellweger still seems a little vulnerable to win Best Actress, but unlike last year with Colman upsetting in the end, there's no other contender that singularly commands a strong base of support.

In Best Actor, I don't know who wins, but Phoenix absolutely could, though I wouldn't rule out Driver or possibly even DiCaprio, depending on how SAG goes. (And also in Best Actor, I could definitely see a scenario where Egerton gets nominated.)

As for Best Picture, is it between Parasite, The Irishman, OUATIH, and... 1917 now? Seemed like there was a lot of hype after it first started screening, then it died down, but I could definitely see it coming back.

I'm fairly confident in Driver/Phoenix winning Best Actor, and Scarlett Johansson has a clear leg up on Theron and Ronan in my eyes.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #51 on: January 06, 2020, 07:30:00 AM »

Movies that are basically done now (IMO), that will be nominated for Oscars but won't win:

- Jojo Rabbit
- Little Women (still tiny chance for Score, Supporting Actress)
- Ford V Ferrari (can still win technical stuff, no acting directing screenplay)
- The Two Popes
- The Farewell (Awkwafina won but Drama actresses are all "better")
- Knives Out
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #52 on: January 06, 2020, 07:36:01 AM »

Did anybody else like Ricky Gervais ripping into Hollywood and all the actors/actresses? I was amazed with how hard he went after everybody. Good for you Ricky.

Full opening monologue, audio only
(NOT SAFE FOR WORK LANGUAGE)
https://youtu.be/o2y99o99GTg
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #53 on: January 06, 2020, 08:58:26 AM »
« Edited: January 06, 2020, 09:11:45 AM by Uncucked GOP T'Chenka »

Movies that are basically done now (IMO), that will be nominated for Oscars but won't win:

- Jojo Rabbit
- Little Women (still tiny chance for Score, Supporting Actress)
- Ford V Ferrari (can still win technical stuff, no acting directing screenplay)
- The Two Popes
- The Farewell (Awkwafina won but Drama actresses are all "better")
- Knives Out

Definitely disagree on Jojo Rabbit, that one is gonna play far better with the guilds and Oscars than anyone else.  If Taika Watiti gets a Best Director nomination tomorrow (sadly, I don’t think he will) and Johansson also gets a supporting actress nomination (I do think this will happen) then Jojo Rabbit is one of the frontrunners for BP.  Otherwise, it’ll have to make due with having like a 40% chance of winning Best Adapted Screenplay and various nominations.  In other words, the jury is still out on that one.

Did anybody else like Ricky Gervais ripping into Hollywood and all the actors/actresses? I was amazed with how hard he went after everybody. Good for you Ricky.

Full opening monologue, audio only
(NOT SAFE FOR WORK LANGUAGE)
https://youtu.be/o2y99o99GTg

He’s always been one of the few good awards show hosts for this reason.  The Globes let him do his thing.  If you have Chris Rock, you gotta let him do race jokes.  If you have Jon Stewart, you gotta let him do political jokes.  If you have some random old person or two random actors, you’re doing it wrong and would be better off with no host.
I can't see Jojo Rabbit (Taika) winning Director. It would need Best Adaped Screenplay to win Best Picture.

(EDIT - Oops, keep thinking Hollywood is Adapted, but that's The Irishman. Scratch all of that about Hollywood being a lock moreso than before for Adapted Screenplay)

The Irishman will probably still beat Jojo Rabbit. All that being said, I hope I'm wrong. I LOVED Jojo Rabbit.

Also, Oscars nominations aren't being announced Monday (today), they're next Monday (January 13th). Unless you meant BAFTA / PGA / some other nominations which are coming Tuesday (tomorrow).
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #54 on: January 07, 2020, 03:44:53 AM »
« Edited: January 07, 2020, 03:50:24 AM by Uncucked GOP T'Chenka »

2020 B.A.F.T.A. Nominees Announced

"Two days after Brits dominated the winners at the Golden Globes, the British Academy unveiled the nominees for its upcoming film awards.

Joker led the pack with 11, closely followed by The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood on 10 and Sam Mendes' 1917 just behind with nine. Elsewhere Margot Robbie will compete against herself in the best supporting actress category, nominated for both Bombshell and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood."

Source:
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/bafta-awards-2020-nominations-unveiled-1267114




I took the liberty of removing the BAFTA awards that aren't Oscar-related, which can be found in the link above.

"Above The Line" (Major) Awards

Best Film
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Irishman
1917
Joker

Best Director
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Irishman
1917
Joker

Original Screenplay
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Marriage Story
Knives Out
Booksmart

Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

Leading Actor
Joker
Marriage Story
Once Upon A Time In Holywood
Rocketman
The Two Popes

Leading Actress
Judy
Marriage Story
Bombshell
Little Women
Wild Rose

Supporting Actor
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Irishman (Pesci)
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
The Irishman (Pacino)
The Two Popes

Supporting Actress
Marriage Story
Bombshell
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

"Unique Category" Best Picture Awards

Film Not In The English Language
Parasite
The Farewell
Pain & Glory
Portrait Of A Lady On Fire
For Sama [documentary]

Animated Film
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
Klaus
A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Documentary
American Factory
Apollo 11
For Sama
The Great Hack
Diego Maradona

"Below The Line" (Minor) Awards

Cinematography
The Irishman
1917
Joker
Ford V Ferrari
The Lighthouse

Editing
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Ford V Ferrari

Special Visual Effects
The Irishman
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker

Sound
1917
Joker
Ford V Ferrari
Rocketman
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker

Original Score
1917
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker

Production Design
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Irishman
1917
Jojo Rabbit
Joker

Costume Design
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Judy

Make Up & Hair
1917
Joker
Bombshell
Rocketman
Judy
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #55 on: January 07, 2020, 12:24:55 PM »
« Edited: January 07, 2020, 12:34:56 PM by Uncucked GOP T'Chenka »

2020 Producers Guild Awards (P.G.A.) Nominees Announced

Despite only sharing 2 categories with the Oscars, the PGAs are considered one of the 5 or 6 most Oscar-influencing precursor awards each year.


Outstanding Theatrical Motion Pictures
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Irishman
1917
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Ford V Ferrari
Knives Out

Outstanding Theatrical Animated Motion Pictures
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Missing Link
Abominable



EDIT - What's coming up each weekend from here on out:

In 1 Week: Critics Choice Awards
In 2 Weeks: Producers Guild Awards (PGAs)
In 2 Weeks: Screen Actors Guild awards (SAGs)
In 4 Weeks: British Academy of Film & Theater Awards (BAFTAs)
In 5 Weeks: Academy Awards aka "The Oscars"
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #56 on: January 07, 2020, 11:22:26 PM »

DGA:

1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Jojo Rabbit just might pull off a BP win after all Cheesy

Happy to see Todd Philips being ignored for his shameless Scorsese rip-off.  
The front-runners are Best Director locks (Parasite Hollywood 1917 Irishman) but that fifth spot is up for grabs. IMO it should realy go to Baumbach, though I would much rather settle for Gerwig or Waititi than Todd Phillips. My money's on Phillips or Gerwig getting it.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #57 on: January 08, 2020, 06:01:25 AM »

The Irishman was screwed over, I think
The only Golden Globe it should have clear-cut won was Best Picture (Drama), though it was a top contender for Best Director, Best Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor. You can look at it two ways. The movie either (A) under-performed due to the length and pacing of the movie and/or anti-Netflix bias, or (B) the movie did just fine, but the Globes voters just liked 1917 and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood ever so slightly more.

We'll see how the Oscars go, it's not over yet. It's still one of the front-runners.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #58 on: January 08, 2020, 07:17:35 AM »

AMERICAN FACTORY (very mild spoilers only)

This is a Netflix documentary that is considered the primary front-runner for Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars.

This was an interesting film about a Chinese auto glass manufacturer re-oepening an old GM plant in Dayton, Ohio and hiring over one thousand Americans to work there under Chinese management and corporate philosophy. There is a focus on cultural differences in regards to worker's rights.

CRITICISMS
- The movie isn't exactly subtle, but a few scenes or moments could have maybe been given more weight.
- This movie didn't use music or score as well as it could have
- You don't get to connect with some of the workers introduced due to lack of screen time

DESERVES PRAISE
- The stuff with the anti-union managers, presidents and CEO was great. They said this stuff ON CAMERA. Wow.
- Overall well made, well shot, good quality documentary
.
FINAL SCORE
B plus

OSCAR TALK
This is a good documentary, but I feel like it's not strong enough to be the front-runner. Perhaps this is a weak year for feature-length documentaries? The only others I saw were Knock Down The House (almost as good) and Hail Satan? (solid, not Oscar-level), so I don't really know how the best documentaries this year would compare to the best docs in an average year. It will probably win Best Documentary Feature unless it's beaten by Apollo 11, or one of the war dramas (For Sama, The Cave).
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #59 on: January 10, 2020, 05:30:57 AM »
« Edited: January 10, 2020, 08:37:36 PM by Incel T'Chenka Demands Coochie Socialism »

Does anybody care to give a final prediction on which films will be the 8 or 9 or 10 Best Picture nominees for this year's Oscars? They're doing the official announcement on Monday morning.

I'm going to give mine and rank them by how good I thought they were. I'm having a really hard time ranking the movies within each tier.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
PARASITE (10/10)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
MARRIAGE STORY (9.5/10)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD (9/10)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
1917 (8.5/10)
JOJO RABBIT (8.5/10)
THE IRISHMAN (8.5/10)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
JOKER (8/10)
LITTLE WOMEN (8/10)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

predicting no 9th nominee
predicting no 10th nominee
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #60 on: January 10, 2020, 08:53:23 PM »
« Edited: January 12, 2020, 08:51:40 AM by Incel T'Chenka Demands Coochie Socialism »

1917 (very mild spoilers only)

This movie has an average screenplay. There is nothing special or "great" about this script. However, this film takes that screenplay and maximizes the hell out of it, with very good acting (not Oscar level), great directing, a great score that is used very well, and god-level cinematography.

Because of the screenplay, I am anticipating a lot of people finding this movie to be overrated. I've seen it already offline and online. You're entited to feel that way. I personally thought this was a great movie, and one of the very best films of 2019.

CRITICISMS
- Screenplay, script
- Acting is very good but nothing mindblowing
- The script doesn't spoonfeed you the drama and emotion
- Some minor characters have quite limited screen time

DESERVES PRAISE
- The acting and the score REALLY worked FOR ME, some may disagree
- The directing is VERY good, and the more you try to figure out how exactly it was directed, the better you realize it was. Might win the Oscar
- The diversity of the cast was just right, not unrealistically diverse to pander to SJWs, but not 100% white either

BEYOND PRAISE, WORSHIP-WORTHY
- The cinematography is mind-blowing

FINAL SCORE (updated)
A  (2 days contemplating = A not A minus)

OSCAR TALK
This is the front-runner for Cinematography, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Also has a good shot at Best Director, Best Original Score and Production Design. There is some chance for Best Picture and Best Editing.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #61 on: January 11, 2020, 07:02:26 AM »

I still think that Journey's End is the way to go for a character-driven WW1 drama.
I assume you mean the 1930 original and not the very recent remake? Never heard of this film but I'll add it to my list of of films to keep an eye out for. I'm not very knowledgeable on pre-70s cinema.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #62 on: January 13, 2020, 01:57:16 AM »
« Edited: February 09, 2020, 04:41:31 PM by Incel T'Chenka Demands Coochie Socialism »

EDIT - I accidentally edited this post instead of quotong it for copy/paste purposes.

The list of all Oscar nominees for all categories is easily available at Wikipedia.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #63 on: January 13, 2020, 09:25:47 AM »

In other news, Parasite really underperformed at the critics choice awards which should be its best group.  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won BP Drama and Best Original Screenplay while Best Director was a tie between 1917 and Parasite.  
Parasite is struggling a bit yeah, whereas The Irishman and Marriage Story are really sinking fast. The PGAs on Saturday and the BAFTAs in three weeks are probably Parasite's last couple of chances to show it can hang with Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (and to a lesser extent 1917).

I think Best Picture at the Oscars will play out one of these ways now:

via Original Screenplay - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (most likely scenario)
via Director - 1917 or maybe Parasite
via Adapted Screenplay - this winner won't win Best Picture this year, unless it's a huge upset
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #64 on: January 13, 2020, 09:43:50 AM »

Thoughts on the Oscar nominations...

- Joker got the most nominations. LOL.
- Hollywood did good but was actually projected to do even better
- Parasite did okay but not as good as some had hoped
- The Academy seems to really like 1917. Screenplay nomination? Wow.
- The Irishman did well as expected, it's losing awards but still getting nominations
- Marriage Story did poorly. It's done, suprassed now by Joker and Jojo Rabbit.
- Jojo Rabbit did VERY well. Long shot for Best Picture via Adapted Screenplay
- Little Women did well, got into Picture and Supporting Actress.

- Jennifer Lopez was snubbed for Cathy Bates. Wow.
- Surprised to see Erivo get in over Awkwafina
- Happy to see The Lighthouse get in for Cinematography, over Parasite though?
- The Farewell and Uncut Gems did terribly, got zero nominations
- Dolemite Is My Name and Rocketman totally collapsed as well, Rocketman got Song
- Jojo Rabbit getting into Editing over Once Upon / Hollywood is confusing to me
- Atlantics snubbed in International for Corpus Christi
- Frozen II snubbed for Klaus
- Apollo 11 snubbed for The Edge Of Democracy is a HUGE snub
- Portrait Of A Lady On Fire got nothing, but we expected that
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #65 on: January 13, 2020, 02:23:10 PM »

So who's supposedly the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor? I suppose that Phoenix, Ronan and Johannsen are for Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress respectively.

Nah, it'll probably be Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt, and Dern.  Johansson and Pesci could theoretically pull off an upset in Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor, but I doubt it (especially in Pesci's case).
This is the right answer, but I'd also add Adam Driver and basically all of the Supporting Actress nominees into the "unlikely but possible as an upset" category.

VERY CLEAR FRONTRUNNER - Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt, Dern
UNLIKELY UPSET PICK - Driver, Johansson, Pesci, (Robbie / Pugh / Johansson / Bates)
DARK HORSE "WTF LOL" LONG SHOT - DiCaprio, Theron, Hanks, (none)

Banderas, Pryce, Ronan, Erivo, Pacino and Hopkins aren't winning jack, I would put good money on it.


Also while I wasn't expecting any nominations, but Booksmart was snubbed. It should've at least got Best Original Screenplay and Olivia Wilde for Best Director.
There was a brief moment last week after the scrrenwriting guild announced nominations where Booksmart looked like it might jump back into the Best Original Screenplay race, but the Oscars had to go and give the 5th nomination to 1917 instead of The Farewell / Booksmart / Uncut Gems.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #66 on: January 14, 2020, 04:36:37 AM »
« Edited: January 14, 2020, 04:42:02 AM by Incel T'Chenka Demands Coochie Socialism »

I still can't comprehend what cinematic greatness people see in Joker that eludes me.
Philips got a nomination just because he aped Scorsese good enough?
A screenplay nominated for having a message that it's ok if you are mentally and don't take your medicine and/or it's ok to kill rich people if you think they wronged you?
First off, let me just say that I think Joker is a fairly good and well-made movie, but that I also think it's overrated relative to the massive hype. So I wouldn't say I'm an unobjective fanboy.

- Phoenix gives a GREAT performance

- The score and cinematography are very good

JOKER SPOILERS BELOW (no major spoilers but "medium" spoilers)
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


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T'Chenka
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« Reply #67 on: January 14, 2020, 05:10:22 AM »

And when it comes to politics Phillips wants to eat his cake and have it too. On one hand he clearly has a political message, even if it's presented in a superficial and heavy-handed way, but on the other he has Arthur declaring that he is just an apolitical clown.  
I picked up Joker on Bluray last week and watched the special features. Phillips claims that his singular vision was to show how a guy like Joker can become Joker in a completely real character study devoid of fantasy or comic elements. There are very clearly political themes and messages in the movie, but IF we take Phillips at his word, this message isn't important to him outside of the fact that it best serves his stated goal. He even specifically states in one of the special features that he "wasn't trying to make a political commentary".
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #68 on: January 14, 2020, 06:50:02 AM »
« Edited: January 14, 2020, 06:55:07 AM by Incel T'Chenka Demands Coochie Socialism »

Quite a good year. Hopefully Tarantino wins some awards (did he ever win best director?), and Parasite does well, but they're guaranteed one award, that of best foreign film. I have to watch all movies except Parasite, but i'll do certainly in time.
Tarantino hasn't won Director yet, no.

The only movies since the 1950s to win Director without also winning Picture:
1967 - The Graduate
1972 - Cabaret
1981 - Reds
1989 - Born On The Fourth Of July
1998 - Saving Private Ryan
2000s - Traffic + The Pianist + Brokeback Mountain
2010s - Life Of Pi + Gravity + The Revenant + La La Land + Roma

Hollywood's the favourite to win Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor, so Tarantino getting at least one Oscar this year is extremely likely.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #69 on: January 16, 2020, 02:28:33 AM »
« Edited: January 16, 2020, 02:33:32 AM by Incel T'Chenka Demands Coochie Socialism »

Okay, so we all know for sure who the nominees are now. Anybody want to share their predictions?


Post-Nominations Pre-PGA Pre-BAFTA Oscar Predictions

I was going to wait until after the BAFTAs to do final predictions, but I want to do a third one now and the post-BAFTAs one will be my fourth and final predictions. This is what I PREDICT, not what I'm hoping or cheering for. Otherwise Parasite would have won Original Screenplay and Best Picture and Florence Pugh and Adam Driver would win their acting categories.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

BEST PICTURE
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

BEST DIRECTOR
1917

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

BEST ACTOR
Joker - Joaquin Phoenix

BEST ACTRESS
Judy - Renee Zellweger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - Brad Pitt

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marriage Story - Laura Dern

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Parasite

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Irishman

BEST EDITING
Parasite

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Once Upon A Time In Holywood

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Little Women

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

BEST SOUND EDITING
1917

BEST SOUND MIXING
1917

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Rocketman - (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Brotherhood

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Hair Love

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Learning To Skateboard In A Warzone (If You're A Girl)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

4 Oscars - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, 1917
2 Oscars - Parasite, The Irishman, Joker
1 Oscar  - Marriage Story, Little Women, Judy, Bombshell, Rocketman
... and 1 Oscar each to winners of Animated, Documentary and the 3 short film categories

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #70 on: January 19, 2020, 08:09:17 AM »

1917 was awarded Best Picture last night by the Producer's Guild. This increases the odds that 1917 will win at the Oscars, as they both tend to pick the same film for Best Picture (in the last few decades) about 65% of the time.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #71 on: January 19, 2020, 10:09:43 PM »
« Edited: January 19, 2020, 10:28:15 PM by Incel T'Chenka Demands Coochie Socialism »

Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt and Dern won the four Oscar-equivelant acting categories tonight at the Screen Actors Guild awards. All four of thenm also won Golden Globes and countless smaller awards this year as well.

I think it's safe to say they'll probably win the 4 acting awards at the Oscars, which puts even more intrigue and focus on Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Director and Picture.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

EDIT - The biggest award of the night, "Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture" went to Parasite (!!!). If you look back at the last 20+ years, any movie that doesn't win the PGA (which was 1917 this year) but still wants to win Best Picture at the Oscars usually needs to win DGA (coming Saturday) or this award.

Last week it was looking like Once Upon A Time In Hollywood was "in the lead", but this weekend 1917 and Parasitr both gained lots of momentum. It's really a three way race now. This weekend has been bad news for people hoping for an Irishman win this year. It's more of a long shot every day.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #72 on: January 20, 2020, 10:10:18 PM »

Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt and Dern won the four Oscar-equivelant acting categories tonight at the Screen Actors Guild awards. All four of thenm also won Golden Globes and countless smaller awards this year as well.

I think it's safe to say they'll probably win the 4 acting awards at the Oscars, which puts even more intrigue and focus on Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Director and Picture.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

EDIT - The biggest award of the night, "Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture" went to Parasite (!!!). If you look back at the last 20+ years, any movie that doesn't win the PGA (which was 1917 this year) but still wants to win Best Picture at the Oscars usually needs to win DGA (coming Saturday) or this award.

Last week it was looking like Once Upon A Time In Hollywood was "in the lead", but this weekend 1917 and Parasitr both gained lots of momentum. It's really a three way race now. This weekend has been bad news for people hoping for an Irishman win this year. It's more of a long shot every day.

I still say Parasite is a long-shot and it’s a two-way race between 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
I'm not saying I agree with this, but I've seen sone Reddit chatter today that Once Upon A Time In Hollywood is now the distant third after losing both the PGA award and the SAG ensemble award to 1917 and Parasite respectively.

https://www.reddit.com/r/oscarrace/comments/erg976/is_once_upon_a_time_in_hollywood_out_of_the_best/
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T'Chenka
King TChenka
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« Reply #73 on: January 21, 2020, 01:16:57 AM »

EXTREMELY Early 2021 Best Picture talk (Jan 2020)

The Oscars are almost here and I thought I would share which 2020 films I think will be going to the 2021 Oscars next year. Obviously at this point, this is impossible to predict and just for fun. Both lists are in alphabetical order.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

5 films most likely to be top contenders for BEST PICTURE
Bernstein (Bradley Cooper)
Mank (David Fincher) ... (Netflix)
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo Del Toro)
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson)
The Last Duel (Ridley Scott)

15 films most likely to get in to BEST PICTURE or almost get in
Ammonite (Francis Lee)
Blonde (Andrew Dominik)... (Netflix)
Da 5 Bloods (Spike Lee)... (Netflix)
Dune (Denis Villeneuve)
In The Heights (Jon M. Chu)
News Of The World (Paul Greengrass)
Next Goal Wins (Taika Waititi)
Nomadland (Chloe Zhao)
On The Rocks (Sofia Coppola)... (Apple Plus)
Respect (Liesl Tommy)
Stillwater (Tom McCarthy)
Tenet (Christopher Nolan)
The Last Thing He Wanted (Dee Rees)... (Netflix)
The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)
West Side Story (Steven Spielberg)
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T'Chenka
King TChenka
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Canada


« Reply #74 on: January 22, 2020, 03:47:20 AM »

The Last Thing He Ever Wanted is a The Accountant-type commercial thriller, not an awards play.  Also, I keep reading rumors that The Last Duel has some really gross/problematic gender politics (specifically regarding a rape scene).  I mean, it was written by Matt Damon and Ben Affleck, but IIRC the initial script somehow raised so many eyebrows (in Hollywood, so that tells you how bad it was) that the studio pressured them to hire a female co-screenwriter to help clean it up.  Did she succeed?  We’ll see, but I don’t know that I’d call it a top-tier BP contender until we know how this likely controversy shakes out.  
Thanks for this info, all very interesting.


The one's I'm most excited for are NIGHTMARE ALLEY and THE FRENCH DISPATCH. The amount of talent in each movie is crazy.


NIGHTMARE ALLEY
- Guillermo Del Toro (director, co-writer)
- Bradley Cooper
- Toni Colette
- Cate Blanchett
- Willam Dafoe
- Roonie Mara
- Richard Jenkins (not confirmed)
- Ron Perlman (not confirmed)


THE FRENCH DISPATCH
- Wes Anderson (director, writer)
- Frances McDormand
- Bill Murray
- Tilda Swinton
- Timothy Chalamet
- Saoirse Ronan
- Willam Dafoe
- Kate Winslet
- Benicio Del Toro
- Christoph Waltz
- Adrian Brody
- Jeffrey Wright
- Owen Wilson
- Henry Winkler
- Lea Seydoux
- Jason Schwartzman
- Bob Babalan
- Fisher Stevens
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