Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)

[T'Chenka]

MARRIAGE STORY (no spoilers)

I'm having a hard time reviewing this. It was overall just so damn good, that I can't really say what was bad (nothing) or what were the strong points of the film (everything). This is my generation's Kramer Vs Kramer, and I can say with confidence that Marriage Story is the better film and therefore an instant classic. Drop everything you're doing, log onto Netflix and watch this movie right now. You owe it to yourself. I was blown away when I saw this late Thursday night, and I'm thinking about it all the time still days later.

DECENT BUT NOT GREAT
- Alan Alda
- Ray Liotta
- The pacing
- The smaller characters in the movie

DESERVES A LOT OF PRAISE
- Laura Dern
- The how good and confident in itself the script is
- The underrated subtle cinematography
- The emotion
- How REAL this movie feels

DESERVE MORE THAN PRAISE, WORSHIP-WORTHY
- Adam Driver
- Scarlett Johansson

FINAL SCORE
A (maybe A plus, I'll think on it)

OSCAR TALK
This is a big player for Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Actor, Actress and Supporting Actress. It also has a reasonable chance at Director, Cinematography, Editing and Score. Unlikely but possible is Supporting Actor. This is IMO going to win Best Picture unless the Academy goes with The Irishman (likely) or Parasite (unlikely). What a film.

[T'Chenka]

Golden Globes nominations are here!

Joker and The Two Popes did very well, definitely better than Ford V Ferrari and Bombshell. These movies are all just outside the top 7 for Best Picture Oscar nominations, fighting fir the #8 spot and a possibly #9 (and #10?) spot. Golden Globes are probably the biggest film awards that influence and/or reveal how the Oscars might go, so this is big news.

Little Women was not nominated for Best Picture or Director, with The Two Popes and Joker taking it's places.

Also big news, Marriage Story and Little Women were both not nominated for Best Director, but Joker was.

Robert DeNiro wasn't nominated for Best Actor, it went to Anthony Hopkins instead.

Knives Out did pretty good, but other movies trying to get in - or back in - to the conversation got nothing done here... The Lighthouse, Just Mercy, A Hidden Life, Queen & Slim, Waves, The Aeronauts and Clemency. The only nomination for A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood was Tom Hanks, so it looks like a Best Picture nomination is really slipping away fast for that film.

Golden Globe Awards nominees

BEST PICTURE
The Irishman (drama)
Marriage Story (drama)
1917 (drama)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (comedy/musical)
Jojo Rabbit (comedy/musical)
Joker (drama)
The Two Popes (drama)
Knives Out (comedy/musical)
Rocketman (comedy/musical)
Dolemite Is My Name (comedy/musical)

BEST DIRECTOR
The Irishman
Parasite
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker

BEST SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Two Popes

BEST ACTOR
Marriage Story (drama)
Joker (drama)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (comedy/musical)
The Two Popes (drama)
Pain & Glory (drama)
Ford V Ferrari (drama)
Rocketman (comedy/musical)
Dolemite Is My Name (comedy/musical)
Jojo Rabbit (comedy/musical)
Knives Out (comedy/musical)

BEST ACTRESS
Judy (drama)
Marriage Story (drama)
Little Women (drama)
Bombshell (drama)
The Farewell (comedy/musical)
Harriet (drama)
Knives Out (comedy/musical)
Booksmart (comedy/musical)
Late Night (comedy/musical)
Where'd You Go Bernadette (comedy/musical)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Irishman (Pesce)
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
The Irishman (Pacino)
The Two Popes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marriage Story
Bombshell
Hustlers
The Report
Richard Jewell

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Parasite
The Farewell
Pain & Glory
Portrait Of A Lady On Fire
Les Miserables

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Missing Link
The Lion King

BEST SCORE
1917
Marriage Story
Little Women
Joker
Motherless Brooklyn

BEST SONG
Rocketman
Harriet
Frozen II
The Lion King
Cats

[T'Chenka]

Still haven't seen most of the Best Picture front-runners, but I just saw Marriage Story, and I thought it was really good. I definitely think it's good enough to win BP.

Ford v. Ferrari was the ultimate dad movie (and in fact, my dad really liked it). I thought it was a solid, entertaining film that was a little long. Along with Rocket Man, Booksmart, and Dolemite is My Name, I'd be fine with it getting a BP nomination, but I wouldn't want it to win Best Picture.

As far as Best Picture goes, the movies that can actually win the award at this point are The Irishman, Parasite, Marriage Story and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, with 1917 being an underdog 5th option and Jojo Rabbit being a long-shot highly unlikely 6th option. There is theoretically a chance for a few movies to go from a 0% chance of winning up to a 5% long-shot chance between now and the Oscars, those movies being Little Women, Joker and The Two Popes. So there are 4 or 5 real contenders and 9 total contenders at this point.

The other movies people mention in regards to Best Picture can only hope for a nomination at best, which is still a big deal in itself. Those movies are Ford V Ferrari, Bombshell, The Farewell, Knives Out, Uncut Gems, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood, and then again for this category there are 5 or 10 highly unlikely other movies with a 10% chance or less of sneaking in as a suprise nomination.

Out of the 9 actual contenders, I've seen 6, and the one I would recommend most to anybody is Parasite. Totally worth a watch if you get the chance to see it.

[T'Chenka]

I'm surprised The Farewell isn't getting much love this awards season. It seems like the type of movie critics would love. IMO it was better than Marriage Story, which was also very good, and certainly better than Joker

It's doing okay IMO. It got Golden Globes nominations for Foreign Language Film, Actress (Comedy/Musical), and likely would have gotten Screenplay as well if The Golden Globes zplit it into two categories in the same way that the Oscars do.

At the Oscars, it still has a really good shot at Screenplay and Actress, and has small chances at Picture and Supporting Actress. Those last two will likely need a few nominations from other awards in the next 2 months, which is possible.

The direct competitor movies for Best Picture are The Two Popes, Ford V Ferrari and Bombshell. There are between 0 and 2 slots left and The Farewell could realistically beat out those films to get in. Florence Pugh getting snubbed at the Oscars is also good for The Farewell for Best Supporting Actress. Annette Bening and Cathy Bates - at this point - haven't solidified their status in the category and could be bumped out between now and February. Dern is a lock and I don't see Robbie or Lopez getting bumped out.

The SAG nominations coming out in just a few hours are going to give us a better look at the acting categories, which will be interesting.

EDIT - Also a REALLY important point that I missed. The rules of the Golden Globes are that foreign films are not allowed to compete for Best Picture. That's why Parasite didn't get a Best Picture nomination. It's very reasonable to assume that The Farewell would have beaten out Dolemite Is My Name and maybe also Rocketman if it was allowed into the Best Picture category. Therefore, the Golden Globes did not make any sort of an indication whether or not The Farewell is worthy of a Best Picture Oscar nomination. There was no snub here whatsoever, and IMO it's very likely tbat it would have been nominated if the rules were different.

[T'Chenka]

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINATIONS.

Akwafina got snubbed for Nyongo and Zhao Shuzhen (as well as Annette Bening and Cathy Bates) didn't get in over Scarlet Johansson and Nicole Kidman. This doesn't help The Farewell. At least it did okay at the Golden Globes.

The Irishman, Parasite and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood got an Ensemble Cast nominations while Marriage Story did not, despite Driver Johansson Dern all being major acting contenders. I'd say this hurts Marriage Story and helps Once Upon A Time In Hollywood in this four-way Best Picture race.

Bale and Edgerton nominated for Actor over Banderas and Pryce. Pugh passed over again for Actress. Foxx over Hopkins for Supporting Actor.

[T'Chenka]

I haven't followed Best Picture closely yet, but based on my understanding from previous years I think that you're probably right in saying that there are 5 movies with an actual chance. I would be really surprised, though, if Parasite or 1917 won based on the fact that foreign language films and war movies (respectively) don't seem to win very often. My guess is that it will come down to the Irishman (peak Scorsese is always a contender), Marriage Story (the kind of film that often wins Oscars), and Once Upon a Time (subject matter + Tarantino being due for a win).

Tarantino has two Oscars (one more than Scorsese) and even his fans admit that OUATIH is his weakest film.

Many fans think it's his best film...

[T'Chenka]

As far as Best Picture goes, the movies that can actually win the award at this point are The Irishman, Parasite, Marriage Story and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, with 1917 being an underdog 5th option and Jojo Rabbit being a long-shot highly unlikely 6th option. There is theoretically a chance for a few movies to go from a 0% chance of winning up to a 5% long-shot chance between now and the Oscars, those movies being Little Women, Joker and The Two Popes. So there are 4 or 5 real contenders and 9 total contenders at this point.

The other movies people mention in regards to Best Picture can only hope for a nomination at best, which is still a big deal in itself. Those movies are Ford V Ferrari, Bombshell, The Farewell, Knives Out, Uncut Gems, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood, and then again for this category there are 5 or 10 highly unlikely other movies with a 10% chance or less of sneaking in as a suprise nomination.

Out of the 9 actual contenders, I've seen 6, and the one I would recommend most to anybody is Parasite. Totally worth a watch if you get the chance to see it.

I haven't followed Best Picture closely yet, but based on my understanding from previous years I think that you're probably right in saying that there are 5 movies with an actual chance. I would be really surprised, though, if Parasite or 1917 won based on the fact that foreign language films and war movies (respectively) don't seem to win very often. My guess is that it will come down to the Irishman (peak Scorsese is always a contender), Marriage Story (the kind of film that often wins Oscars), and Once Upon a Time (subject matter + Tarantino being due for a win).

This is probably my bias, but I think Parasite might win. Roma almost won last year, which was foreign and Netflix and slow and artsy, four potential downfalls. Parasite is foreign, but not only is it NOT Netflix, but it's actually competing against Netflix. It's also not slow and not "artsy" in the way that might turn some people off, even though it's extremely well made. People who want to see justice for Roma, people that don't respect Netflix and people who dislike slow artsy stuff might all come out this year for Parasite.

Also keep in mind that The Irishman Once Upon A Time In Hollywood are long films that some might feel are slow, and Marriage Story is a mildly artsy drama. If you can get past the foreign language aspect, Parasite is arguably the most accessible (mainstream friendly) film, the fastest-paced and best film overall out of the top 4 of Irishman, Marriage Story, Hollywood, Parasite. I think it's also (slightly) better than Roma or ay least equal, and much more accessible.

Hollywood is full of liberals trying to be progressive and inclusive, as we all know. What better time to show it than to choose an Asian culture film? I just this second realizef how incredibly white Irishman, Marriage Story and Hollywood are. Don't Hollywood libs like to pat themselves on the back for supporting minorities? Here's their chance.

[T'Chenka]

9 Academy Awards Short-Lists Revealed
9 of the 16 "below the line" (minor) categories now have short-lists.
0 of the 8 "above the line" (major) categories have short-lists out.


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Les Miserables (France)
Atlantics (Senegal) (netflix)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Beanpole (Russua)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)
Those Who Remained (Hungary)
Truth And Justice (Estonia)
SNUBS - Monos (Colombia) is a big snub, should have made the short-list.
SNUBS - France snubbed Portrait Of A Lady On Fire by submitting Les Miserables instead.
SNUBS - And Then We Danced (Sweden)
SNUBS - The Invisible Life Of Euridice Gusmao (Brazil)


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory (netflix)
Apollo 11
One Child Nation
The Cave
For Sama
Honeyland
Maiden
The Biggest Little Farm
Knock Down The House (netflix)
The Great Hack (netflix)
The Edge Of Democracy
Aquarela
Midnight Family
Advocate
The Apollo
SNUBS - Varda By Agnes
SNUBS - I thought "Hail Satan?" would make the short-list.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Irishman
1917
The Lion King
Cats
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker
Gemini Man
Avengers: Endgame
Alita: Battle Angel
Captain Marvel
Terminator: Dark Fate
SNUBS - Ad Astra is a MASSIVE snub. WOW. Unbelievable.
SNUBS - Ford V Ferrari
SNUBS - The Aeronauts
SNUBS - Spider-Man: Far From Home


BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell
Joker
Dolemite Is My Name
Judy
Little Women
Downton Abbey
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Rocketman
Maleficent: Mistress Of Evil
1917
SNUBS - Nothing comes to mind.


MUSIC - BEST SCORE
Marriage Story
Joker
1917
Little Women
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker
Motherless Brooklyn
Us
Jojo Rabbit
Avengers: Endgame
Ford V Ferrari
The Farewell
Pain & Glory
Bombshell
Frozen II
The King
SNUBS - Parasite
SNUBS - Uncut Gems
SNUBS - Waves


MUSIC - BEST SONG
Harriet - "Stand Up"
Frozen II - "Into The Unknown"
Rocketman - "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again"
The Lion King - "Spirit"
Aladdin - "Speechless"
Wild Rose - "Glasgow"
Breakthrough - "I'm Standing With You"
Motherless Brooklyn - "Daily Battles"
Toy Story 4 - "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away
The LEGO Movie 2 - "Catchy Song"
The Lion King - "Never Too Late"
Parasite - "A Glass Of Soju"
The Black Godfather - "Letter To My Godfather"
The Bronx USA - "Da Bronx"
Joni Morrison: The Pieces That I Am - "High Above The Water"
SNUBS - A pretty big snub would be Cats - "Beautiful Ghosts"


LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
I don't really care about the 3 short film categories. Information can be found below.
https://oscars.org/oscars/92nd-oscars-shortlists


ANIMATED SHORT FILM
I don't really care about the 3 short film categories. Information can be found below.
https://oscars.org/oscars/92nd-oscars-shortlists


DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
I don't really care about the 3 short film categories. Information can be found below.
https://oscars.org/oscars/92nd-oscars-shortlists

[T'Chenka]

The official trailer for Tenet came out today, Christopher Nolan's new film that comes out in July, starring John David Washington. What an absolute MIND-F__K.

If you're the kind of person that watches movie trailers, this is a must-watch trailer.  The trailer doesn't give away exactly what's going on, but you get a bit of an idea. This is Inception-level mind-f__kery going on here. Based on that trailer, this has the potential to be the best film of 2020. Not sure on how likely it is to reach that potential, but the potential is there IMO. Future classic film? Let the hype begin.

The cast includes Robert Pattinson, Elizabeth Debecki. Kenneth Branagh, Michael Caine, Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Himesh Patel. Ludwig Goransson does the score, which is in the trailer. He won an Oscar for Best Original Score for Black Panther.

TENET Official Trailer
https://youtu.be/LdOM0x0XDMo

[T'Chenka]

I just saw a few movies:

1) Her Smell - Great, vanity-free, Oscar-worthy lead performance by a manic Elisabeth Moss as an incredibly unlikable punk rock singer...but in a very meh movie.  I give it a C.
______________________

2) Bombshell - Man, what an awful movie.  And they made up false instances of sexual harassment and sexual assault by Ailes.  Like, why do that?  Even if you were dead set on having Margot Robbie in the movie for some reason, you could’ve at least began the film with a disclaimer saying “some of this is true.”  Or have her play one of the less well-known victims of Ailes in a flashback, Idk.  Ideally, her whole character could’ve been cut from the movie.  

I usually give movies a lot of leeway about fictionalizing certain (or even most) elements of true stories as long as they capture the spirit of the truth, but there are some things where you can’t just make stuff up even if you capture the spirit of the truth (which tbf Robbie’s character’s storyline did) and depicting someone committing sex crimes is one of them...even if said person really was a sex predator.  

The Loudest Voice may’ve been - aside from Russell Crowe’s suburb performance as Ailes - a dull, poorly-written, superficial miniseries, but at least it tried to stick to the facts.  Bombshell didn’t even try and it was still a boring, poorly written film with no interest in going beyond the most superficial surface level.  In any case, Robbie’s character didn’t even exist, much less get sexually assaulted or harassed by Ailes.  I know Ailes did the things he does to her character to a number of women, but making up a character who really just exists to be a naive idealist who becomes a victim...it really bothered me.  Maybe I’m getting too hung up on this and it doesn’t matter b/c Ailes did do this stuff to other people, idk.  Either way, it was still a boring and very by-the-numbers movie.

Tbh, Bombshell really should’ve focused on Gretchen Carlson who was actually...you know...sexually harassed by Ailes and was certainly the real hero of this scandal.  Margot Robbie’s character and Kate McKinnon’s secretly Hillary supporting lesbian [see, audience, even Fox employees are really liberals deep down ) didn’t exist irl.  

For that matter - unlike Carlson - Megyn Kelly didn’t come forward until it was clear that Ailes was going down no matter what and she was a pretty horrible person even compared to Carlson.  I’m not sure why they tried to shoehorn her into this as some sort of hero nor did I think Theron even gave that good a performance, but whatever.

I mean, this movie was just plain dull.  The only good things were Nicole Kidman and John Lithgow’s (stealing every scene he was in as Ailes) excellent performances, the makeup (good prosthetics on Lithgow and Theron looked just like Kelly), the bit about Hannity and O’Reilly’s rivalry, some genuinely funny lines mocking O’Reilly’s use of a vibrator (yes, that actually happened and raises so many questions), and the bit of the film’s score used for the brief elevator scene which inexplicably constituted the film’s entire theatrical trailer.  

Anyway, Bombshell barely gets a C- b/c of Lithgow and Kidman’s performances, otherwise I’d have given it a D.  It’s just a boring, generic, dull movie.
____________________________
3) Uncut Gems - This film was amazing.  Loved every minute of it!  The film has this chaotic, propulsive, violent, hyper-active energy that grabs you and then never lets go.  It’s probably the most immersive film I’ve seen since Hereditary.  Uncut Gems also excels as both a crime film and a character study of a degenerate, deeply unsympathetic gambling addict.  

It is superbly edited and directed, but the real MVP is Adam Sandler.  He just completely disappears into the character and delivers such a raw, powerful, nuanced, vanity-free performance that you never for a second remember you’re watching Adam Sandler.  For the duration of the movie, there is no Adam Sandler, only Howard Rattner.  I always thought Sandler could give a solid dramatic performance in a supporting part as hammy [inks]hole villain if he were so inclined (something like a white version of Tuco Salamanca’s character from Breaking Bad), but this...wow.  I mean, I just didn’t think Sandler had it in him.  Uncut Gems also features good supporting performances by Julie Fox (Howard Ratner’s girlfriend), Eric Bogosian (a loanshark), and Kevin Garnett (as himself in a non-cameo role...apparently the dude can act)

The script is excellent and contains tons of great twists (you’ll want to go into this one as close to blind as possible).  It always keeps you on the edge of your seat and everything just feels so realistic.  You can well that a lot of careful research went into every aspect of this movie.

I suspect that Uncut Gems will do well (relatively speaking) with nominations b/c while it’s very much not an academy movie, those who like it will absolutely love it.  BP and Best Director are probably not in the cards, but I think it has a solid shot at nominations for editing, Best Actor, and quite possibly original screenplay and maybe even cinematography.  I suppose an upset BP nom is possible, but I doubt it.  A Best Director nomination is too heavy a lift imo (that’ll be Scorsese, Tarantino, Bong Joon-Ho, Mendes, and one of Waititi, Baumbach, or *maybe* Phillips).  

Not gonna lie, if he gets nominated then Sandler has a real shot at winning Best Actor imo.  The only danger sign is that he got snubbed by the SAG since they use the same preferential voting system as the OSCARs.  I think Bale edging Sandler out was a fluke, but we’ll see.  

I give it an A+ and highly recommend seeing it, ideally in theaters since watching this one really is an experience that will be amplified by seeing it that way.

From what I've read, every country outside of the USA is getting Uncut Gems on Netflix on January 31st. Can't wait. Going to see Bombshell tonight and trying to keep my expectations relatively low.

[T'Chenka]

THE TWO POPES (no spoilers)

This was a nice film, well made and intimate, about two polar opposites in the Vatican spending time together. You learn a lot about Pope Francis, and you get to know how Pope Benefict was in his 80s. The cinematograghy is excellent and the acting is pretty good. I loved all the politics: Benedict thinks the church needs to stay conservative and Francis believes in a liberal church. This is definitely a "slow character drama", which will completely tirn some people off, but it's good.

WEAK POINTS
- "Excitement level", feeling the plot progress

DESERVES A LOT OF PRAISE
- Cinematograohy was delicious
- Pryce and Hopkins both act very well in this
- Church political discussion was great

FINAL SCORE
B plus

OSCAR TALK
VERY good chance at Best Adapted Screenlay. This may sneak into Best Pictue.. Pryce (Actor) and Hopkins (Supporting Actor) are going to either just sneak into nominations or just miss out. There isn't much talk about Best Cinematography, but there should be IMO.





RICHARD JEWELL (no spoilers)

This was a good drama. There isn't much to praise but there isn't much to criticize. Hauser, Rockwell and especially Kathy Bates were pretty good in this. Hamm and Wilde were forgettable.

OKAY BUT ONLY OKAY
- Side characters (script, acting)

DESERVE PRAISE
- Kathy Bates, Sam Rockwell, Paul Walter Hauser

FINAL SCORE
B

OSCAR TALK
Not much. Kathy Bates has some chance to get a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Rockwell could on a longshot get into Best Supporting Actor because the Academy loves him (see: Vice Rockwell nomination last year over over Beautiful Boy Chalamet).

[T'Chenka]

THE TWO POPES (no spoilers)

This was a nice film, well made and intimate, about two polar opposites in the Vatican spending time together. You learn a lot about Pope Francis, and you get to know how Pope Benefict was in his 80s. The cinematograghy is excellent and the acting is pretty good. I loved all the politics: Benedict thinks the church needs to stay conservative and Francis believes in a liberal church. This is definitely a "slow character drama", which will completely tirn some people off, but it's good.

WEAK POINTS
- "Excitement level", feeling the plot progress

DESERVES A LOT OF PRAISE
- Cinematograohy was delicious
- Pryce and Hopkins both act very well in this
- Church political discussion was great

FINAL SCORE
B plus

OSCAR TALK
VERY good chance at Best Adapted Screenlay. This may sneak into Best Pictue.. Pryce (Actor) and Hopkins (Supporting Actor) are going to either just sneak into nominations or just miss out. There isn't much talk about Best Cinematography, but there should be IMO.





RICHARD JEWELL (no spoilers)

This was a good drama. There isn't much to praise but there isn't much to criticize. Hauser, Rockwell and especially Kathy Bates were pretty good in this. Hamm and Wilde were forgettable.

OKAY BUT ONLY OKAY
- Side characters (script, acting)

DESERVE PRAISE
- Kathy Bates, Sam Rockwell, Paul Walter Hauser

FINAL SCORE
B

OSCAR TALK
Not much. Kathy Bates has some chance to get a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Rockwell could on a longshot get into Best Supporting Actor because the Academy loves him (see: Vice Rockwell nomination last year over over Beautiful Boy Chalamet).

Small nitpick: The Two Popes is adapted from a play, it’s not an original screenplay.

Oops! Golden Globes messed my head up.

[T'Chenka]

BOMBSHELL (no spoilers)

This is more or less the Vice of 2019. True fact-based political drama with a great cast and great makeup that has great potential and doesn't quite live up to the hype due to the script. This movie was a real mixed bag, but it's absolutely worth a watch and I would recommend it if the concept / story / trailer have you interested.

CRITICISMS
- The script has issues. Some scenes and messages were home runs, some didn't work as well as they should have, and the third act didn't hold even close to the gravity that it should have
- The movie adressed a lot of issues very clearly, but didn't seem to have a clear message on about solving these problems noving forward. The film tried to criticize post-Ailes Fox as well, but didn't do a good enough clear enough job making it's case

DESERVES PRAISE
- The make-up was GREAT. There was one scene with Bill O'Reilly that looked off, and you only notice how they changed Kidman from certain angles in certain scenes. Theron and Lithgow were INCREDIBLE though.
- Charlize Theron gives a top 10 lead actress performance for 2019, maybe top 5.
- Margot Robbie was better than I expected. I always underrate her but she keeps proving me wrong.
- Lithgow and Kidman were good. Didn't blow me away but I have no criticisms.
- A few scenes and moments here and there were great, like scenes out of a Best Picture front-runner quality

FINAL SCORE
B plus (maybe just a B)

OSCAR TALK
This is the front-runner for Best Hairstyling And Makeup. Charlize Theron is a lock for a Best Actress nomination and an underdog to win. Robbie has a pretty good chance for a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Bombshell is in the top 11 or top 12 for Best Picture, but probably not one of the 8 or 9 (or 10) nominees. Lithgow is a longshot for Best Supporting Actor.

[T'Chenka]

I saw The Irishman last week. I thought it was a really good movie, and I really liked how Scorsese sort of counter-glamorized mob films (and went over some fairly accurate political history!) even while he made a classic Scorsese film.

But I would also say that it wasn't quite as good as Goodfellas, and it was obviously very, very long. Without the need to give Scorsese an Oscar (given his Best Picture and Best Director win for Departed) I'm skeptical that it will win BP (though it will almost certainly be nominated).

I like The Irishman, but my personal preferences to win Best Picture are:

COULD ACTUALLY WIN
1 - Parasite
2 - Marruage Story
3 - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
4/5 - The Irishman
4/5 - 1917  ---  (haven't seen yet)

OUT OF NOWHERE SHOCK WINNER
6/7- Jojo Rabbit
7/8 - Joker
6/7/8 - Little Women  ---  (haven't seen yet)

NO REAL SHOT TO WIN
9 - The Two Popes
10 - Bombshell
11 - Ford V Ferrari

In my intuition-driven (i.e. probably worthless) opinion, I'm now gonna say that Marriage Story and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (which I still haven't seen) are the co-frontrunners, though I do acknowledge T'Chenka's persuasive argument regarding Parasite.

Based on all the awards nominations and actual awards that happen at this time of year, big and small, things are always in a state of flux from week to week. The most influential things remaining before the Oscars are the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, and both nominations and awards for the BAFTAs and PGAs.

Based on what the experts and armchair "experts" are all saying this week, The Irishman (#1), Parasite (#2) and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (#3) are the three front-runners right now. The Irishman is very very slowly trending downwards and Parasite is very very slowly trending upwards. Hollywood probably won't rise any higher, so it will only "move up" by Irishman or Parasite dropping down.

Marriage Story was in the top 4 as a front-runner as early as 2 weeks ago, but suprisingly it has basically fallen out of "front-runner" status and dropped to a second tier as #4, still above 1917 at #5 and still way above the third tier (Jojo Rabbit, Joker), fourth tier (Little Women) and fifth tier (Ford V Ferrari, The Two Popes, Bombshell). The main reason for this is that it keeps getting snubbed for Best Director nominations, which are going to Joker and Little Women instead.

[T'Chenka]

Marriage Story was in the top 4 as a front-runner as early as 2 weeks ago, but suprisingly it has basically fallen out of "front-runner" status and dropped to a second tier as #4, still above 1917 at #5 and still way above the third tier (Jojo Rabbit, Joker), fourth tier (Little Women) and fifth tier (Ford V Ferrari, The Two Popes, Bombshell). The main reason for this is that it keeps getting snubbed for Best Director nominations, which are going to Joker and Little Women instead.

Fair point, and TIL that Crash was the most recent film to win BP without being nominated for Best Director at the Golden Globes. On the other hand, I remember a few years ago Argo surprised a lot of people by winning Best Picture even though Affleck wasn't nominated for Best Director at the Academy Awards.

I was planning on making a post specifically about this right before the Oscars, but perhaps I'll just re-quote this post at that time. The Best Picture winner also wins either Director or Screenplay or both at the Oscars 95% of the time. If it wins both, it's 95% likely to win Picture. Last year right before they announced Best Picture, the odds of it being anything other than Green Book (Original Screenplay) or Blakkklansman (Adapted Screenplay) or Roma (Director) were 5% or less.

When you watch the actual awards live, Screenplay and Director are HUGE hints as to who will not be winning Picture at the end of the night. For example, last year with The Favourite, Green Book winning Screenplay was s dagger in The Favourite's heart, since Roma was a lock for Director. Two years ago, Get Out winning Screenplay wss a dagger in the heart of Three Billboards, especially since it wasn't even nominated for Director. If Marruage Story isn't nominated for Director this year, it's Best Picture chances drop to 5% or less if it doesn't win Screenplay.

BEST PICTURE last ten years:

- Green Book (Original Screenplay)
- The Shape Of Water (Director)
- Moonlight (Adapted Screenplay)
- Spotlight (Original Screenplay)
- Birdman (Director + Original Screenplay)
- 12 Years A Slave (Adapted Screenplay)
- Argo (Adapted Screenplay)
- The Artist (Director)
- The King's Speech (Director + Original Screenplay)
- The Hurt Locker (Director + Original Screenplay)

[T'Chenka]

Similarly, Jonathan Pryce is so beloved in the film industry that many want him to get “his” Oscar nomination at some point (and you better believe the academy is that superficial about this stuff; “s/he’s overdue” is probably the single best narrative someone seeking an acting nomination could hope for), but is it enough to get Pryce the fifth most first place votes?  Hopkins gives his best performance in over twenty years, but is it good enough to crack the Best Supporting Actor field as an actor who has already won an Oscar and has periodically annoyed the academy by publicly expressing his contempt for the idea of actors campaigning for Oscar nominations (lest we forget many Academy members publicly called for Mo’nique not to be nominated for Precious [she ultimately won] b/c she “isn’t showing us the respect we deserve [by campaigning for an Oscar],” these are some petty folks). 

Anyway, we’ll see what happens, but I doubt it gets more than a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination.  Tbh, Pryce not getting a Best Actor nomination from the SAG might be a death blow to his chances since they use preferential voting and are the industry group most likely to be inclined to nominate a beloved, widely respected actor like Pryce.  The Globes are a bit weird [they’re less useful for predicting nominations since they’re mainly used as A) FYC to Academy members with a mountain of screeners to get through and B) a way for Globes winners to give a good speech to show the Academy members “hey, you’ll feel good about me being on the stage if I win”] and DiCaprio is a lock for a Best Actor nomination, but was nominated in the musical or comedy category at the Globes.

You're not wrong, but the Oscars aren't 100% predictable, despite definitely being 95% predictable. Almost nobody but Roma stans were predicting Marina De Tavira to get a Best Supporting Actress nomination. It came way out of left field. After the Golden Globes, I'm simply not willing to write this film or these actors off just yet.

[T'Chenka]

LITTLE WOMEN (very mild spoilers only)

This is a really good coming-of-age classic tale, remade pretty well by Greta Gerwig. I don't know what else to say besides giving my pros and cons, but it's a very solid film and I would recommend it to anybody who likes the premise.


CRITICISMS
- The script is the weak point, specifically how it jumps back and forward in time. It works suprisingly well in most regards, but the non-linear timeline softens the emotional blows unfortunately.
-  I felt that the side characters could've been fleshed out a little bit more. The movie being 5-10 minutes longer in order to do that would've been okay with me, despite already being over 2 hours as is.

DESERVES PRAISE
The sets, costumes, camera work were all pretty good
- The main 7 actors plus a few side actors were all VERY good
- All of the emotional scenes hit hard due to acting, despite script softening blows

BEYOND PRAISE-WORTHY, TRULY GREAT
- Saoirse Ronan and Florence Pugh are SO good. Cannot praise them enough
- If Florence Pugh doesn't get her Best Supporting Actress Oscar nomination, we riot

FINAL SCORE
A minus (briefly considered B PLUS)

OSCAR TALK
This is a front-runner for Best Costume Design, also has a very good shot at nominations for Best Original Score and a 50/50 shot at Best Production Design. Saoirse Ronan is very likely to get a Best Actress nom, Florence Pugh is 50/50 on getting a Best Supporting Actress nom. Chalamet won't get a Best Supporting Actor nom with better competition this year. Best Adapted Screenplay is a very very likely nomination. Greta is going to probably just miss out on Best Director, unless Marriage Story and Joker both miss. The 8th slot for Best Picture should belong to Little Women, though it could be stolen by Ford V Ferrari, The Two Popes, Bombshell, or in a longshot scenario by Uncut Gems, The Farewell or Knives Out.

[T'Chenka]

This will be my second Oscar predictions, before the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTA nominations, PGA nominations, BAFTAs and PGAs. I will do a third and final prediction in the final week before the Oscars.

EDIT - Also, like my first predictions, I'm predicting all the nominees AND the winners. Nominees are announced in two weeks, and my final predictions will be after that, and therefore only predicting the award winners.


BEST PICTURE
Parasite
The Irishman
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Marriage Story
1917
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

BEST DIRECTOR
Parasite
The Irishman
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
1917
Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Marriage Story
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Knives Out
The Farewell

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

BEST ACTOR
Marriage Story - Adam Driver
Joker - Joaquin Phoenix
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - Leonardi DiCaprio
Pain & Glory - Antonio Banderas
Ford V Ferrari - Christian Bale

BEST ACTRESS
Judy - Renee Zellweger
Marriage Story - Scarlett Johansson
Bombshell - Charlize Theron
Little Women - Saoirse Ronan
Harriet - Cynthia Erivo

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - Brad Pitt
The Irishman - Joe Pesci
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood - Tom Hanks
The Irishman - Al Pacino
The Two Popes - Anthony Hopkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marriage Story - Laura Dern
Hustlers - Jennifer Lopez
Bombshell - Margot Robbie
Little Women - Florence Pugh
Richard Jewell - Cathy Bates

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Parasite
Pain & Glory
Les Miserables
Atlantics
Beanpole

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory
Apollo 11
One Child Nation
For Sama
Honeyland

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker
The Irishman
Portrait Of A Lady On Fire

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Irishman
Avengers: Endgame
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker

BEST EDITING
The Irishman
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Parasite
Ford V Ferrari
Marriage Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
1917
Parasite
The Irishman
Joker

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Little Women
Dolemite Is My Name
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Rocketman
Downton Abbey

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell
Judy
Rocketman
Joker
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Marriage Story
1917
Joker
Little Women
Motherless Brooklyn

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Rocketman - (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again
Frozen II - Into The Unknown
Harriet - Stand Up
Toy Story 4 - I Won't Let You Throw Yourself Away
The Lion King - Spirit

BEST SOUND EDITING
Ford V Ferrari
1917
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker

BEST SOUND MIXING
Ford v Ferrari
1917
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker
Rocketman
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

BEST (Documentary, Live-Action, Animated) SHORT
I honestly don't care about short films and these 3 awards. Maybe I should, but it is what it is.



4 Oscars - Marriage Story
3 Oscars - Parasite, The Irishman
2 Oscars - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, Ford V Ferrari
1 Oscar -  1917, Little Women, Bombshell, Rocketman...
                ...Judy, Toy Story 4, American Factory


12 Nominations - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
9 Nominations - The Irishman
8 Nominations - 1917, Joker
7 Nominations - Marriage Story
6 Nominations - Parasite, Little Women
4 Nominations - Ford V Ferrari, Rocketman
3 Nominations - Bombshell, Star Wars: The Rise Of Sywalker
2 Nominations - Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood...
                         ...Pain & Glory, Judy, Harriet, Toy Story 4, Frozen II, The Lion King
1 Nomination  - The Farewell, Knives Out, Hustlers, Richard Jewell, Avengers: Endgame...
                         ...Portrait Of A Lady On Fire, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Motherless Brooklyn...
                        ...and all other international / documentary / animated nominees

[T'Chenka]

With it being the last day of the year, here is every film of 2019 that I have seen, listed in order of how much I enjoyed them:

Invader Zim: Enter the Florpus
Marriage Story
Paddleton
Everybody Knows
Cold Pursuit
Shazam!
Us
Under the Silver Lake
Rocko’s Modern Life: Static Cling
How To Train Your Dragon 3
The Irishman
The Last Black Man In San Francisco
Serenity
The Fanatic
Loqueesha

Thoughts:

- A movie worse than The Fanatic? Wow. Impressive, almost.
- Isn't Rocko's Modern Life: Static Cling a mini-series not a film?
- I hope you eventually get to see Parasite

[T'Chenka]

I don't follow the Golden Globes as much as the Oscars, but they're coming on Sunday night and I wanna take a stab at some predictions.

I slept on this and changed a few picks the next morning.

The biggest thing to watch for is if Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, Parasite or The Irishman win 2 or 3 of Director, Screenplay and their respective Best Picture/Film categories. That's a strong hint at who might be winning the Oscar for Best Picture.

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
Joker
I have Joker beating the much more obvious The Irishman and the obvious runner-up Marriage Story as 2020's version of Bohemian Rhapsody beating A Star Is Born and Black Panther. I see Joker as this year's Bohemian Rhapsody, riding a wave of fan support into awards season. Which ever film wins here helps their Oscar chances for Best Picture, whether that means The Irishman keeping the top 3 as a top 3, Marriage Story or 1917 pushing from just outside the top 3 into front-runner status, or Joker moving from "no real chance" to "potential upset". The Two Popes has ZERO chance here.

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
Joker - Joaquin Phoenix
It's the Joaquin Phoenix and Adam Driver two-way race this year. Phoenix seems like more of a "Globes" choice, whereas the Oscars are less audience-driven and care more about what the critics think. It's one of the two for sure.

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
Judy - Rene Zellweger
I had this as Scarlett Johansson last night, but Zellweger is winning all of the smaller awards and will probably continue that success here and at the Oscars. Theron would be a big suprise, the other two women have no shot.

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
This is pretty clearly Hollywood's award to win, however there is a small small chance of Jojo Rabbit winning, which would crush Hollywood's Best Picture Oscar chances and push Jojo Rabbit from "outside the top 5" to "almost a front-runner but not quite". Any other result would crush Hollywood ever more. It's gonna be Holywood though.

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - Leonardo DiCaprio
Edgerton or Murphy aren't happening IMO. People keep forgetting how good DiCaprio was and how good Hollywood was because it came out way back in July. This is a pretty easy choice.

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
The Farewell - Awkwafina
Ana De Armas would be a cool choice, but this category is basically one potential Oscar nominee versus 4 other actresses. It's not much of a contest. Consider Awkwafina's Oscar nomination chances on life support if she loses this.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - Brad Pitt
Joe Pesci could maybe steal this, but I don't think so. The Irishman is a newer shinier toy, but Hollywood was great and Pitt was pretty good.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hustlers - Jennifer Lopez
Some - myself included - think Laura Dern's whole front-runner status is built on her career and how good Marriage Story is, but not on her Marriage Story performance itself. Lopez is the audience choice that the Globes can be swayed by. Florence Pugh was robbed of a nomination here.

BEST DIRECTOR
Parasite - Bong Joon Ho
This is 1917's big shot to get back into Oscar talk for Best Director and Best Picture, but the three front-runners look like unbeatable powerhouses. Whoever wins here, this is BIG for the Oscars. This can push one of the three Oscar front-funners ahead of the other two, especially if Hollywood or The Irishman win this AND Best Picture here. Joker or 1917 winning this and/or Picture is obviously a really big deal and makes them Oscar front-runners or just outside that group in the second tier with Marriage Story.

BEST SCREENPLAY
Marriage Story - Noah Baumbach
This is a HUGE moment for Marriage Story, where it needs to win this to stay in the Best Picture conversation. The Two Popes has no chance. Any of the three front-runners winning this is a big deal, especially if they can also win Picture and/or Director.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Parasite
It's just gotta be Parasite. If Portrait Of A Lady On Fire wins, it hurts Parasite in the big picture.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Toy Story 4
I don't think Frozen II can beat Toy Story 4.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Joker - Hildur Gudnadottir
This category is a bit more wide open than others. I'm going with Joker.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Rocketman - (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again
It's this or "Into The Unknown" from Frozen II, I hope. Lion King winning this or Animated Feature is a cringe job.

[T'Chenka]

I just found this... interesting... video essay on Marriage Story, possibly made by a MGTOW guy. I honestly haven't watched it yet, but the text description ALONE made me want to post it, which I'll share below.

MARRIAGE STORY spoilers ahead!!!

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

"Published on Dec 13, 2019

Marriage Story can be perfectly summed up by the opening and closing sequences. This movie is not about compromise or quality parenting... it is about unilateral control where Charlie should lose everything because Nicole decided she wants more.

In the beginning... it is perfectly demonstrated by her unwillingness to even read positive words about her husband, though he himself is perfectly willing to praise her... and it is reinforced at the end, by her awarding him the privilege of reading those very words, only because he has now lost his career, bent to her will, moved to a city he hates, just to see the child he loves, after she weaponized that child against him.

I despise this movie... it's an agenda-driven piece of garbage meant to reconstruct an emotionally sensitive topic in a disingenuous way."

https://youtu.be/ZLfrf_00Ync

[T'Chenka]

Not a single nomination for the DuPont movie? Not good, folks. This is why our country is dying. They're poisoning us, and Hollywood doesn't even care when the elite cabal of criminals gets exposed for harming us.

The bottom line is nointy noin percent of us have toxins in our blood, most especially people like the farmers and coal miners, but Hollywood doesn't care that we miss our carpets. That's the bottom line.

I saw the movie and liked it, and I would say it was a well made film. That being said, absolutely none of the acting, directing, screenplay or score were amazing or best-of-the-year. It's just a good movie, that's it, despite being extremely eye-opening and culturally important.

[T'Chenka]

I just found this... interesting... video essay on Marriage Story, possibly made by a MGTOW guy. I honestly haven't watched it yet, but the text description ALONE made me want to post it, which I'll share below.

MARRIAGE STORY spoilers ahead!!!

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

"Published on Dec 13, 2019

Marriage Story can be perfectly summed up by the opening and closing sequences. This movie is not about compromise or quality parenting... it is about unilateral control where Charlie should lose everything because Nicole decided she wants more.

In the beginning... it is perfectly demonstrated by her unwillingness to even read positive words about her husband, though he himself is perfectly willing to praise her... and it is reinforced at the end, by her awarding him the privilege of reading those very words, only because he has now lost his career, bent to her will, moved to a city he hates, just to see the child he loves, after she weaponized that child against him.

I despise this movie... it's an agenda-driven piece of garbage meant to reconstruct an emotionally sensitive topic in a disingenuous way."

https://youtu.be/ZLfrf_00Ync

Does he ever end up mentioning that (SPOILER)? I really don't want to partake in watching and supporting his channel in any way if he really is part of an internet reactionary circle.

As I said in my summation (well not really, it was pretty long) of the film, the movie made me move back and forth in my sympathy between the couple only for me to realize that the movie wasn't really forcing you to choose sides. It's just how divorces go. They're complicated and nuanced, as I know first-hand from my parents' recent divorce.

Also Noah Baumbach supposedly based the movie, and the character of Charlie specifically, on himself during his divorce from Jennifer Jason Leigh, so would he really have a pro-feminist agenda with that being the case?

I kind of don't want to watch it for the same reasons you stated. I might get around to it. Just that video description alone got my attention.

[T'Chenka]

Golden Globes Predictions:

Note: I have not seen 1917, Harriet, or Rocketman

(PREDICTIONS FOLLOW)

God, I would love to see Marriage Story do that well and The Irishman win nothing. I don't think it'll turn out this way, but I really hope it does.

[T'Chenka]

And that may well be the ballgame for Marriage Story...

Edit: So...how about 1917?

Parasite did OK, but far from perfect.
The Irishman didn't win anyting.
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood did GREAT.
Marriage Story didn't win anything
1917 did EXTREMELY well, above expectations
Jojo Rabbit didn't win anything.
Joker did well, but didn't exceed expectations.


I think the new Oscar list for Best Picture contenders probaby looks like:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The Irishman
1917
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Marriage Story
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Joker
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Jojo Rabbit
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Little Women
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Ford V Ferrari, The Farewell, Uncut Gems
The Two Popes, Bombshell, Knives Out
etc etc
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


This positions Best Original Screenplay and Best Director as the major indicators of who will win Best Picture between Parasite and Hollywood. If one film wins both, it's extremely likey to win Best Picture. If they win one each, it's a nail biter.