Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)

[T'Chenka]

Two of the big movies this year - "Mank" and "Judas And The Black Messiah" - prominently feature historical American socialists: Herman Mankewicz and Fred Hampton.

Trial of the Chicago 7 heavily features Fred Hampton too!

I wouldn't say "heavily". Don't want to get in spoiler territory here so I'll leave it at that.

[T'Chenka]

CURRENT SITUATION:

Front runner = Nomadland

Real contenders = Chicago 7, Pfomising Young Woman

Dark horses = Minari, The Father

Pretenders = Sound Of Metal, Judas

Will NOT be winning = Mank

The WGA and PGA awards coming in the next week the last chance for Sound Of Metal and Judas to gain any kind of momentum. After that, Minari could improve due to SAGs and DGA, whereas The Father could improve due to the BAFTAs.

The most likely outcome at the Oscars now is that Nomadland wins Director and faces off against the Original Screenplay winner (Chicago 7 / Promising) for Best Picture.

[T'Chenka]

2020 films - Oscars - Best Picture nominees
- Judas And The Black Messiah
- Mank (netflix)
- Minari
- Nomadland
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound Of Metal (amazon prime)
- The Father
- The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (netflix)

2020 films - Oscars - Best Director/Screenplay (but not Picture) nominees
- Another Round
- Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (amazon prime)
- One Night In Miami (amazon prime)
- The White Tiger (netflix)

[T'Chenka]

I wasn't all that enchanted with 'One Night in Miami' but I am really shocked that it wasn't nominated for more. The Academy really missed an opportunity to pat themselves on the back for having it in the running for Best Picture or Regina King for Best Director.

Otherwise I'm not all that surprised by the other nominees save for Maria Balukova and Glenn Close getting nominated, for two different reasons: I didn't think 'Borat 2' would get any nominations (if 2020 was a great year for anyone it was Sacha Baron Cohen). Maybe it was the anti-Trump themes that put it over.  I'm happy for Balukova though. I really did love her in the movie. As for Close I heard that she was just over-the-top in 'Hillbilly Elegy' and that the movie in itself was kind of terrible. Also she looks like that guy from 'Trailer Park Boys' and I can't get past it.

Also I never even heard of 'Minari' or 'The Father' until the nominations were announced.

I use the app Letterboxd to make movie lists and check average ratinfs of movies by other users, and both Minari and The Father have very high average scores. I'd like to see both. As for One Night In Miami, it JUST missed Best Picture, and if they had nominated just one more film, it would have been that one. The Best Director race had a clear top 4 directors, and speculation on whi would recieve the 5th nomination circled around Aarom Sorkin, Regina King, Darius Marder, Florian Zeller and Shaka King. At one point earlier on, Regina King was the favourite. In the end, the Academy ignored all of those directors to select Thomas Vinterberg.

[T'Chenka]

Updated the first two posts and bumped.

Oscars are in 2.5 weeks on Sunday. I've watched all of the Best Picture nominees and am just waiting for the awards ceremony. Sadly, it seems EXTREMELY likely that The Power Of The Dog is going to win this year, so there isn't as much excitement. Still, it's been a decent year for film. Not amazing but not mediocre.

[T'Chenka]

My ranking of the Best Picture movies:

4.5 / 5 stars
- West Side Story
- Drive My Car

4.0 / 5 stars
- Dune
- Licorice Pizza

3.5 / 5 stars
- The Power Of The Dog
- King Richard
- Belfast
- CODA
- Nightmare Alley

3.0 / 5 stars
- Don't Look Up

[T'Chenka]

My predictions for the awards winners:

BEST PICTURE - The Power Of The Dog
BEST DIRECTOR - Jane Campion (The Power Of The Dog)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Licorice Pizza
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - The Power Of The Dog

BEST ACTRESS - Jessica Chastain (The Eyes Of Tammy Faye)
BEST ACTOR - Will Smith (King Richard)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power Of The Dog)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE - Drive My Car
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - Encanto
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Summer Of Soul

BEST EDITING - Dune
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - The Power Of The Dog
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - Dune
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN - Dune
BEST COSTUMES - Cruella
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP - The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
BEST SOUND - Dune
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - Dune
BEST ORIGINAL SONG - "No Time To Die" (No Time To Die)

[T'Chenka]

Ranking the Best Picture winners:

AMAZING
- West Side Story
- Drive My Car

GREAT
- Dune
- Licorice Pizza

VERY VERY GOOD
- The Power Of The Dog

VERY GOOD
- King Richard

GOOD (ABOVE-AVERAGE)
- Belfast
- CODA
- Nightmare Alley

AVERAGE
- Don't Look Up

[T'Chenka]

My ranking of 2021 films:
https://letterboxd.com/kingtchenka/list/2021-films-ranked/

My ranking of the decade so far:
https://letterboxd.com/kingtchenka/list/decade-ranked-2020s/

[T'Chenka]

My list of "30 movies from 2022 most likely to get into Best Picture":

01. Babylon
02. Bardo (Or False Chronicle Of A Handful of Truths)
03. [Apple+] Killers Of The Flower Moon
04. Empire Of Light
05. [Netflix] Maestro (likely 2023 not 2022)
06. The Son
07. The Fabelmans
08. Canterbury Glass
09. Next Goal Wins
10. She Said
11. [Netflix] White Noise
12. Asteroid City
13. The Banshees Of Inisherin
14. Till
15. [Netflix] Rustin
16. Avatar 2
17. Thirteen Lives
18. Armageddon Time
19. [Netflix] All Quiet On The Western Front
20. Napoleon
21. Women Talking
22. Red White And Water
23. Tár
24. [Netflix] Knives Out 2
25. Three Thousand Years Of Longing
26. [Netflix] The Killer
27. Poor Things
28. Fever
29. Triangle Of Sadness
30. The Wonder

Even if you don't care much about the Oscars, a lot of the big dramas of the year are here. If you're big into action, comedy, horror, then most of those were left off of this list. Some of these will end up being "just okay" but some of these will be great movies. A handful may be delayed until 2023 possibly.

[T'Chenka]

Everything Everywhere All At Once is now available on iTunes (and presumably digital VOD) and will arrive on DVD and Bluray on June 14th. EDIT - the iTunes and VOD release were quietly delayed 3 weeks unfortunately.

Make sure you check this out... most unique film of the decade and one of the best - possibly THE best - film of the decade so far. It has at least four genres mixed together, probably more, and you've NEVER seen a film like this. It's better if you don't look into the film too much or tell people too much about it before they see it. Just go in knowing very little or nothing and enjoy (and recommend to others). This is ALREADY a cult classic and it hasn't been out for 3 months yet.

Could be a big Oscars player but it isn't an "Oscars" type of film. So maybe not.

[T'Chenka]

With the trio of Venice, Telluride and TIFF kicking off on Wednesday, a little update for the Oscars...

Notable films leading the pack for BEST PICTURE:
- Babylon
- The Fabelmans
- Bardo, False Chronicle Of A Handful of Truths
- Empire Of Light
- The Son
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Women Talking

Notable performances for BEST ACTOR:
- Hugh Jackman (The Son)
- Austin Butler (Elvis)
- Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Notable performances for BEST ACTRESS:
- Olivia Colman (Empire Of Light)
- Margot Robbie (Babylon)
- Cate Blanchett (Tár)

Notable performances for BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
- Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Brad Pitt (Babylon)
- Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)

Notable performances for BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
- Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
- Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
- Vanessa Kirby (The Son)
- Laura Dern (The Son)

[T'Chenka]

Everything Everywhere All At Once is now available on iTunes (and presumably digital VOD) and will arrive on DVD and Bluray on June 14th. EDIT - the iTunes and VOD release were quietly delayed 3 weeks unfortunately.

Make sure you check this out... most unique film of the decade and one of the best - possibly THE best - film of the decade so far. It has at least four genres mixed together, probably more, and you've NEVER seen a film like this. It's better if you don't look into the film too much or tell people too much about it before they see it. Just go in knowing very little or nothing and enjoy (and recommend to others). This is ALREADY a cult classic and it hasn't been out for 3 months yet.

Could be a big Oscars player but it isn't an "Oscars" type of film. So maybe not.

Unfortunately I don't think it will get any Oscar attention. It's unfortunate, as I don't think the studio really considered whether it could even have a chance at the awards, and I think it could. It really should have been released later in the years just to see whether it could have gotten some awards buzz, and I think it could have.

Everyone still seems to be predicting it now as we enter September, which is surprising. I think it has a decent chance of showing up at the Oscars now.

[T'Chenka]

I'm still thinking Elvis is going to be nominated for something, be it Best Picture, best Director for Baz Luhrmann, or Best Actor/Best Supporting Actor for Tom Hanks/Austin Parker.

Butler for Best Actor is possible
Hanks for Supporting Actor is possible but fairly unlikely
Luhrmann for Director is possible but fairly unlikely
Best Picture is possible... maybe a 30ish% chance of happening?

Some tech noms like Hair & Makeup, Production Design are certainly possible. Costumes is likely.

[T'Chenka]

Everyone still seems to be predicting it now as we enter September, which is surprising. I think it has a decent chance of showing up at the Oscars now.

It would really warm my heart for a it to be nominated, and I would even be quite happy if it won for Best Picture (though it has steep odds going up against the likes of Babylon and Thirteen Lives).

Apprently Thirteen Lives isn't going to be campaigned very hard for Best Picture. Some people have read the Babylon script - not me, I avoid spoilers - and say it's too weird to win Best Picture. We'll see.

Things will become more clear in the next few weeks, but I think the "big 5" of the year so far that could actually in Picture are Babylon Bardo Fabelmans Empire Son, with Women Talking and Everything Everywhere All At Once being the biggest contenders on the more "lowkey" side. Making the top 5 + those 2 into a "top 7". Most awards predictions right now from experts, insiders and film nerds have most or all of those top 7 in their predictions for the 10 films being nominated for Best Picture.

[T'Chenka]

I can't speak for the others like The Fabelmans, Empire of Light etc as they're not out yet, and their quality is as yet unknown. However, I don't place a whole lot of stock in what a lot of the professional predictions say, as I've seen some of them that even contain Amsterdam as a potential awards player (and I can assure you with 100% certainty that it is not).

People were high on Amsterdam up until the spring and then soured on it around that time. I'm personally still slightly high on it (but not for Picture and DEFINITELY not for Director).

[T'Chenka]

Telluride and Venice film festivals update:

- Women Talking is apparently very good and a frontrunner to win Best Picture
- Empire Of Light is apparently messy and underwhelming, won't win, MIGHT not even be nominated
- Bardo is apprently pretentious and self-indulgent, probably won't even be nominated
- The Banshees Of Inisherin is apprently VERY very good and likely one of the Best Picture nominees
- The Whale is apparently good but not Academy-friendly. Actor, Makeup, not Best Picture.
- Don't Worry Darling is apparently not very good, also has a lot controversy surrounding it

[T'Chenka]

The EXTREMELY controversial Netflix film Blonde (which hits netflix in 2 or 3 weeks) was surprisingly well recieved at it's premiere at the Venice Film Festival yesterday.

Controversies:
- it's 2.5 hours long
- they cast a Cuban actress to play Marilyn Monroe
- it's based on a book that is either a fictionalized version of her life, or a conspiracy theory about how her life actually was but it definitely hasn't been verified
- it's rated NC-17 (more "adult" than rated R) despite being a netflix film
- SPOILER WARNING (NC-17 stuff being described:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

- apparently includes menstrual cunnilingus? or something bizarre like that?
- has at least one scene of Marilyn Monroe being raped graphically, possibly multiple scenes

Critics at the festival have basically said it's a "good" film (not great, not amazing), but considering the above-mentioned stuff, I'm impressed.

Before all of these controversies were known to people... so say, 12 to 18 months ago, people were speculating that this could be a frontrunner for Best Actress. At this point, I think it's safe to say that the Oscars will probably ignore this film.

[T'Chenka]

UPDATE - MID OCTOBER

Likeliness to be a Best Picture nominee:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Women Talking
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Babylon
5. The Banshees Of Inisherin
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. She Said
8. Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
10. Avatar: The Way Of Water
11. All Quiet On The Western Front
12. Empire Of Light
13. Tár
14. Triangle Of Sadness
15. Elvis
16. Bardo: False Chronicle Of A Handful Of Truths
17. The Whale
18. The Son
19. Till
20. I Wanna Dance With Somebody

Potential / likely performances for acting nominations:

- The Fabelmans - Michelle Williams (Actress or Supporting Actress)
- The Fabelmans - Judd Hirsch (Supporting Actor)
- Women Talking - Jessie Buckley (Supporting Actress)
- Women Talking - Claire Foy (Supporting Actress)
- Women Talking - Ben Whishaw (Supporting Actor)
- Everything Everywhere All At Once - Key Huy Quan (Supporting Actor)
- Babylon - Margot Robbie (Actress)
- Babylon - Brad Pitt (Supporting Actor)
- Babylon - Jean Smart (Supporting Actress)
- The Banshees Of Inisherin - Colin Farrell (Actor)
- The Banshees Of Inisherin - Brendan Gleeson (Supporting Actor)
- She Said - Carey Mulligan (Actress)
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - Janelle Monae (Supporting Actress)
- Empire Of Light - Olivia Colman (Actress)
- Tár - Cate Blanchett (Actress)
- Elvis - Austin Butler (Actor)
- The Whale - Brendan Fraser (Actor)
- The Whale - Hong Chau (Supporting Actress)
- The Son - Hugh Jackman (Actor)
- The Son - Laura Dern (Supporting Actress)
- The Son - Vanessa Kirby (Supporting Actress)
- Till - Danielle Deadwyler (Actress)
- I Wanna Dance With Somebody - Naomi Ackie (Actress)

[T'Chenka]

It's all coming soon...

Dec 12 - Golden Globes nominations
Jan 10 - Golden Globes ceremony

Jan 24 - Academy Awards nominations
Mar 12 - Academy Awards ceremony

[T'Chenka]

The nominees for the 80th Golden Globes will be announced on Monday December 12th. This is basically the transition from the months and months of Oscar speculation into the "actual" beginning of the Oscar season.

Below I have included the different categories / awards for films, and some of the films I think will be nominated in those categories. I wrote 4 predictions per category, but the Globes choose 5 nominations per category.


BEST FILM - DRAMA
- The Fabelmans
- Women Talking
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Elvis

BEST FILM - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
- The Banshees Of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Babylon
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST DIRECTOR
- Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
- James Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)
- Martin McDonagh (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
- Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

BEST FILM - SCREENPLAY
- The Banshees Of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Women Talking
- The Fabelmans


BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
- Cate Blanchett (Tár)
- Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
- Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
- Olivia Colman (Empire Of Light)

BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
- Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Margot Robbie (Babylon)
- Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu)
- Charlbi Dean (Triangle Of Sadness)

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
- Austin Butler (Elvis)
- Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
- Bill Nighy (Living)
- Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)

BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
- Colin Farrell (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
- Diego Calva (Babylon)
- Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
- Christian Bale (Amsterdam)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Carey Mulligan (She Said)
- Claire Foy (Women Talking)
- Kerry Condon (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
- Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Brad Pitt (Babylon)
- Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)
- Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees Of Inisherin)


BEST NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FILM
- All Quiet On The Western Front
- Holy Spider
- Bardo, False Chronicle Of A Handful Of Truths
- Close

BEST ANIMATED FILM
- Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
- My Father's Dragon
- Puss In Boots: The Last Wish
- The Bad Guys

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
- The Fabelmans (John Williams)
- Women Talking (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
- Pinocchio (Alexandre Desplat)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- "Hold My Hand" by Lady Gaga (Top Gun: Maverick)
- "Lift Me Up" by Rihanna (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
- "Ciao Papa" by Alexandre Desplat (Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio)
- "Naatu Naatu" by M. M. Keeravani (RRR)

[T'Chenka]

80th GOLDEN GLOBES nominees


PICTURE (DRAMA)
- The Fabelmans
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Avatar: The Way Of Water
- Tár
- Elvis

PICTURE (MUSICAL/COMEDY)
- The Banshees Of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Babylon
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Triangle Of Sadness

DIRECTOR
- Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
- James Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)
- Martin McDonagh (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
- Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)

SCREENPLAY
- The Banshees Of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Women Talking
- The Fabelmans
- Tár

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
- Cate Blanchett (Tár)
- Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
- Olivia Colman (Empire Of Light)
- Viola Davis (The Woman King)
- Ana de Armas (Blonde)

BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL/COMEDY)
- Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Margot Robbie (Babylon)
- Emma Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande)
- Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu)
- Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris)

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
- Austin Butler (Elvis)
- Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
- Bill Nighy (Living)
- Hugh Jackman (The Son)
- Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)

BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL/COMEDY)
- Colin Farrell (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
- Diego Calva (Babylon)
- Adam Driver (White Noise)
- Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
- Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Kerry Condon (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
- Carey Mulligan (She Said)
- Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Dolly De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness)
- Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- Brad Pitt (Babylon)
- Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
- Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
- Barry Keoghan (The Banshees Of Inisherin)

NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FEATURE
- RRR
- Close
- Argentina 1985
- All Quiet On The Western Front
- Decision To Leave

ANIMATED FEATURE
- Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
- Turning Red
- Marcel The Shell With No Shoes On
- Puss In Boots: The Last Wish
- Inu-Oh

ORIGINAL SCORE
- Hildur Guðnadóttir (Women Talking)
- John Williams (The Fabelmans)
- Alexandre Desplat (Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio)
- Carter Burwell (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
- Justin Hurwitz (Babylon)

ORIGINAL SONG
- "Hold My Hand" (Top Gun: Maverick)
- "Lift Me Up" (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
- "Ciao Papa" (Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio)
- "Naatu Naatu" (RRR)
- "Carolina" (Where The Crawdads Sing)


Notable stuff, based on expectations :
Banshees overperformed
Women Talking underperformed
Deadwyler missed Actress
De Armas got into Actress
Bardo, Holy Spider missed Non-English Language
Keoghan, Bassett, Driver, Pope kinda surprising

[T'Chenka]

How do they pick out movies that come out like a couple days ago, or not even out yet??

A lot of these industry people get to see the film before everybody else does, either in a private screening at a theater, or an exclusive private streaming / DVD. Additionally, many of these films played at a bunch of film festivals in September (Venice, TIFF, Telluride) or even earlier (Cannes, Sundance) and a lot of industry people saw them back then.

[T'Chenka]

The Golden Globes and the Critics Choice awards have both now taken place. Here are the Golden Globes winners. Any award that Critics Choice gave out differently than the Globes is noted as well.


PICTURE (DRAMA)
- The Fabelmans
CRITICS CHOICE - Everything Everywhere All At Once

PICTURE (MUSICAL/COMEDY)
- The Banshees Of Inisherin
CRITICS CHOICE - this award is combined with Best Picture (Drama)

DIRECTOR
- Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
CRITICS CHOICE - Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

SCREENPLAY
- The Banshees Of Inisherin
CRITICS CHOICE - Everything Everywhere All At Once

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
- Cate Blanchett (Tár)

BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL/COMEDY)
- Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
CRITICS CHOICE - this award is combined with Best Actress (Drama)

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
- Austin Butler (Elvis)
CRITICS CHOICE - Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL/COMEDY)
- Colin Farrell (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
CRITICS CHOICE - this award is combined with Best Actor (Drama)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FEATURE
- Argentina 1985
CRITICS CHOICE - RRR

ANIMATED FEATURE
- Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

ORIGINAL SCORE
- Justin Hurwitz (Babylon)
CRITICS CHOICE - - Hildur Guðnadóttir (Tár)

ORIGINAL SONG
- "Naatu Naatu" (RRR)

[T'Chenka]

BAFTA Awards nominees are in.

It seems clear at this stage that Best Picture at the Oscars is between Everything Everywhere All At Once and The Banshees Of Inisherin. The Fabelmans doesn't seem generally strong, and won't win any acting awards. Top Gun: Maverick isn't receiving the late season surge that it was going to need. TAR is now in 3rd place, I guess, but it's far below the top 2. Elvis isn't strong enough. Avatar 2 definitely isn't strong enough.

Outside of those 7 movies that are more or less guaranteed to get into Best Picture, and looking at the movies on the cusp that MIGHT be getting in... based on the concept of winning Adapted Screenplay and winning some other awards to build to winning Best Picture, I guess All Quiet On The Western Front and The Whale would maybe the the extremely unlikely underdogs with a 1% or 2% chance, hypothetically.