Do you have the demographics on the TIPP poll cited?
Unless they are really overloading with Democrats, this result is rather hard to believe.
After considerable study, I believe the current realistic breakdown for likely voters is:
Democrats 38%
Republicans 37
Others 25
Party ID... the $64,000,000 questions
I actually think you are darn close at +1 to the Dem side, I might have said even, but I can certainly live with +1.
It also depends a bit on how you ask the question a bit and would reprase the issue a bit:
About a third of all adults when you ask will, on the first pass, answer that they are an "independant" but if you ask a followup for a "soft" party ID asking something like "Which party do you somewhat lean towards" this 1/3 divided up with a fairly strong break to the GOP side.
So if you ask a "hard" party ID question
"Are you registered as a Democrat, Republican, or an Independant"
you get roughly
Dems 35
Gop 32
Indys 33
(Number of self proclaimed indys is rising BTW)
But among this 33% who are on a first pass "independant" a plurality when pressed will "lean" towards the GOP.
If you beat with a stick (as Gallup for example does) these indys to get an even vague party ID this 33 breaks roughly:
33% Indys =>
8 "Soft Dems"
11% "Soft" GOP
14% "hard core" Independants.
When you put it together and hammer the indys for a "soft" party ID you thus get:
Dems 43%
GOP 43%
Indys 14%
Given that a lot of these party ID's are "soft" needless to say the bounce around a fair bit from poll to poll.
