I am just about ready to call **BULLSH*T** on this poll...
Here is the real simple math...
NOTE - I fixed the 3 day numbers, I had Obama and McCain reversed on Sept 10 - this day is NOT relevant to the caluculations, but I did make anerrorMcCain was up by 1% - (47 to 46%) on the three day average on the Sept 10-12th sample
Lets say McCain just got lucky on the rounding and the real result was
46.51 for McCain
46.49 for Obama
ie the race was really tied.
Today (The Sept 11-13th sample) Obama is up 3% (48/45)
Again taking the extreme rounding scenario lets say the real result is:
Obama 47.51
McCain 45.49
ie a real gap of 2% at absolute minimum
A FOUR point swing (+1 to -3) in a three day tracking poll requires the sample that drops off to be at
the absolute worst case scenario of rounding to be 6% different than the sample that rolls on...
Yet the sample that rolled off was 48/45 in Favor of Obama, and the sample that rolled on was also 48/45 for Obama....
??
At the absolute extremes of rounding, the gap between two different 48/45 samples could be 2%, yet to move the 3 day average a full 2+%, an absolute difference of 6% is needed...
I call bullsh**t on this poll...
Anybody wanna argue?
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More Bulltweet..
The numbers don't even add up internally..
If you take the percentages of support by party id, and use the distribution given... they don't add up..
GOP Dems Indys
Sample 0.283716284 0.384615385 0.331668332
Obama 6 83 42
McCain 90.51 12.51 46.51 (note I have rounded McCain down as far as possible)
McCain GOP 25.67916084
Dem 4.811538462
Indy 15.42589411
Total 45.91659341
Even rounding down as far as possible, McCain is still at 46%, not 45%....
Something does not add up here....