Gallup: Bush up 8 in Ohio

[The Vorlon]

An 11% swing turns up among registered voters in Ohio: from Bush down 10% to Bush leading by 1%.

Gallup does that funky weight down / weight up thing on their polls which, untill they switch to the standard turnout model (happens beginning of october) produces some really funky RV numbers.

For example, in the last national poll Bush's actual lead among RVs was 5 points, weighted down to 1%.

When Gallup actually narrows their Likely sample to a final value and goes to their sliding turnout scale, it make sense.

Right now, it does NOT, at least IMHO.  I generally think I understand these things, but this one, I do not

Bush up 8 in Ohio - good news anyway you slice it however if you're a Bush fan.

I know it's CNN, but does anybody have a link...?

[The Vorlon]

here is a bit of a link to the Poll

Bush 52
Kerry 43
Nader 2

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040908/dcw066_1.html

Just a very short and minimal write up, best I could find

According to the write up, we will get Gallup polls for Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Washington tommow in USA Today

[The Vorlon]

Not that unbelievable if you think Bush is up 4-6 nationally.

I think Florida and Ohio have essentially swaped places in 2004

In 2000 Bush was 4% better in Ohio than his national average, while Florida was basically exactly at his national average.

In 2004 I think Ohio is basically dead even with Bush's National numbers, while Bush is maybe 2-3% better in Florida than his National support.

Is Nader on the ballot in Ohio..?   BTW

Other key results in Ohio:
     Respondents who believe only Bush would be a good President:     42%
     Respondents who believe only Kerry would be a good President:    34%
     Respondents who believe both would be a good President:          10%
     Respondents who believe neither would be a good President:        9%

If we use this question as a +/- proxy for "certain" support, Bush is also up 8%

[The Vorlon]

The odd situation with the ABB movement could mean that a lot of those neither respondants are very likely Kerry or non-Bush voters.

A valid point.

To a lot on the waaaaaay far left Bush is like Hitler, while Kerry is still bad, say maybe Pol Pot, so they hold thir nose and vote for Pol Pot as it were.

Hard thing to poll out, but your theory is at very least plausable.