ABC Says Tied (LV) or Bush +1 (RV)

[The Vorlon]

Likely Voters (+/- 56% turnout Model)

Bush 48
Kerry 48
Nader 1

Job Approbal is 52% (Washington Post article says 50%..?)

In the 2 way race, its also tied, 48/48 in LVs, 49/48 Kerry in RVs

Bush leads 53% to 44% in "Battlegrounds" among likely voters

(Sample in Battlegrounds = +/- 320 voters or so +/- 5.6% MOE)

Good news for Bush, but given small sample, don't take it to the bank just yet.

Partisan ID was:

GOP 33%
Dems 32%
Indys 29%
(Refused/other presumably 5%)

If you believe Gallup this is just about perfect, if you believe PEW it is 4% to GOP heavy.
Take your pick

Trend: (August 1st Poll)

Kerry 49
Bush 47
Nader 2

Gain of 2% for Bush, well within MOE

http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/bush_convention_poll_040829.html

Another poll als showing the "turnout curve" getting very flat:

Registered Voters

Bush 48
Kerry 47
Nader 1%

Trend: (August 1st Poll)

Kerry 50
Bush 44
Nader 2%


By this measure Bush gained 7% which achieves statistical signifigance.

The Skinny...

Horserace numbers little changed...

Internals VERY strong for Bush and very bad for Kerry

In numbers very similar to the Time POll, Kerry's personal favorable/unfavorable took a HUGE hit

Favorable-Unfavorable  (NOW)

George W. Bush 50-40  (Bush +10)
John Kerry 43-40 (Kerry +3)

Favorable-Unfavorable  (August 1)

Bush 47-45 (+2)
Kerry 51-32 (+19)

Kerry went from a 17% advantage on personal favorability to a 7% deficit - a net swing of 24% - This is, from a polling perspective, a fairly staggering number.

[The Vorlon]

This poll has Reps  +1. thats about a +5 too heavy GOP sample (Dems +4 national) if a poll came out +5 the other way +9 on the Dem side, the reps here would be screaming their heads off

As I said..

Partisan ID was:

GOP 33%
Dems 32%
Indys 29%
(Refused/other presumably 5%)

If you believe Gallup this is just about perfect, if you believe PEW it is 4% to GOP heavy.
Take your pick

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