Hey Vorlon,
I hate to nail you here, but you have PA as <2% Bush. Based on local factors, I'll have Kerry by 4-6%. Gore got 4% last time and the Southeastern suburbs are going more Kerry than Gore. Please enlighten me as to your reasoning. Thanks.
Ok... I have Bush up 0.2% in my model - call it tied.
If we throw out the most recent Fox Poll showing a decent Bush lead, and the last Quinnipiac showing a decent Kerry lead, every single poll in the last 4 months has shown the race within margin of error of being tied. (except a tiny sample University poll which I toss out without even looking at)
This looks a whole like like a tossup to me, with perhaps a modest, modest Kerry lead.
Many of the polls shown here were also done in April/May, at the height of the Iraq/Prison scandal mess when Bush was down maybe 3% Nationally.
Currently (at least prior to whatever "Edwards Bounce" we see) Bush and Kerry are basically tied Nationally, so relative to the May Timeframe, Bush is actually gained a few points.
The model I use is driven by both state polls and natiional polls.
To give you an example, lets say that on June 1st Candidate X was down 5% in State Y, and the National polls on average said that he was down 10% nationally.
If a month later the average of the National polls was Candidate X being down only 5% (ie a gain of 5% overall) I would also index the state poll that showed him down 5% also by 5%, to a "tie" in that state.
Based on the May polls showing a very modest Kerry lead, and Bush gaining maybe 2 or 3 in the last month, I have Pennsylvania standing at Bush + 0.2% (a very very light blue) Call it a tie.
If you want to adjust this to a very very light Red for Kerry I certainly would not object
I think "tossup" is a correct call at this point.
Remember, Gore only won by 4.14% in 2000, and the Bush "ground game" in Pennsylvania in 2000 was just wretched - they got absolutely killed "on the ground".
Assuming the GOP's GOTV in 2004 is even average they should, relative to the 2000 baseline, gain 2-3%.
Remember too this is a "snapshot" not a Nov 2 prediction.
My Nov 2 Prediction has Kerry holding Pennsylvania, likely by about what Gore got in 2000 or so.
Just one guys opinion..
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