a little theory

[The Vorlon]

Actually, to mildly disagree...

The small changes in the 2004 vs 2000 electoral college make there a lot of fairly sane scenarios where Bush loses 2 out of three of the Florida/Ohio/Pennsylvania and still gets his required 270 EVs.

Bush lost:

     Wisconsin (10 EVs)
     Oregon (7 EVs)
     Iowa (7 EVs)
     New Mexico (5 EVs)

All by less than 1% in 2000.

He also lost Minnesota (10 EVs) by just 2.41%

Based on these 5 states, there are a few scenarios without Ohio for Bush that are entirely sane and reasonable.

The polls for Oregon, Iowa, and New Mexico are all mixed right now with neither candidate having a consistent lead, ie - they are tossups more or less. (Wisconsin seems to be semi-safe in the Kerry column)



There are also a number that are "sane" for Bush without Florida



As well as a (marginally) sane scenario without Florida AND Ohio

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, I think that's exactly what I said, though I didn't use any fancy maps for it...

yes you did, actually....

I guess I am a visual learner, not too good at that "read'n" stuff.

[The Vorlon]

Hey Vorlon, on your map Oregon is really red, but shouldnt it be New Mexico red?  Oregons even more of a tossup this time around than last.

My map represents a current estimate.

Kerry up 2-4% in Oregon currently seems about right, but hey up 0-2 or 4-6 I would not argue too hard either way.

Oregon is always a tough state to call.

[The Vorlon]

Hey Vorlon, on your map Oregon is really red, but shouldnt it be New Mexico red?  Oregons even more of a tossup this time around than last.

My map represents a current estimate.

Kerry up 2-4% in Oregon currently seems about right, but hey up 0-2 or 4-6 I would nor argue too hard either way.

Oregon is always a tough state to call.

FWIW, there have been six public polls in Oregon since April and none of them have shown Kerry leading by more than two.  

They were:
Kerry +2
Kerry +2
Tied
Tied
Bush +2
Bush +5

Pretty much the exact definitition of a Toss-Up state.

The most recent poll, a May 6th Research 2000 poll http://www.portlandtribune.com/archview.cgi?id=24364 has Kerry up 4% head to head, and up 2% with Nader. So I figure Kerry up 2-4% seems about right.

Of the admittedly weak lot, the Research 2000 is also the poll I'd be most inclined to trust.

But as I said, Kerry up 0-2%, or pure toss up is not something different enough from Kerry up 2-4 to be worth the debate.

The state is close, it's 5 months left to go. Oregon is very much in play.