The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,660
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
|
 |
« on: June 16, 2005, 10:33:35 PM » |
|
|
« edited: June 16, 2005, 10:46:33 PM by The Vorlon »
|
Arizona - Likely Republican
Incumbent: Jon Kyl (R) - elected in 1994
Correct...
California - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Dianne Feinstein (D) - elected in 1992 special election
Correct...
Connecticut - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Joe Lieberman (D) - elected in 1988
Correct...
Delaware - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Tom Carper (D) - elected in 2000
Carper is safe.
Florida - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Bill Nelson (D) - elected in 2000
I'll put this one darn close to a tossup.
The GOP roots are getting stronger in Florida, and while Harris is certainly a lightning rod... it is barely concievable that the Whitehouse might gently nudge Harris out and another more electable candidate in to the GOP slot.... I admit it has been a long time since anything like this has happened in Florida (ok... other than, well, 2004) so I'm not locking this up for the Dems yet.
Hawaii - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Daniel Akaka (D) - appointed in 1990
done deal....
Indiana - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Richard Lugar (R) - elected in 1976
done deal...
Maine - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Olympia Snowe (R) - elected in 1994
done deal...
Maryland - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Paul Sarbanes (D) - elected in 1976
done deal...
Massachusetts - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Ted Kennedy (D) - elected in 1962 special election
done deal...
Michigan - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Debbie Stabenow (D) - elected in 2000
Stabenow is beatable... a dem lean at best....
Minnesota - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Mark Dayton (D) - elected in 2000
Democratic roots are real deep in Minnesota, GOP has made big gains, but it's still a Dem lean.
Mississippi - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Trent Lott (R) - elected in 1988
It's, well, Mississippi...
Missouri - Likely Republican
Incumbent: Jim Talent (R) - elected in 2002 special election
Lean Republican, at best... There will be a mild Dem tide in 2006.
Montana - Lean Republican
Incumbent: Conrad Burns (R) - elected in 1988
Burns, by a lot more than you think...
Nebraska - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Ben Nelson (D) - elected in 2000
Nelson is a real good Senator... the state is 65/35 GOP at the Presidential level so no Dem is a lock, but Nelson wins 15%+
Nevada - Solid Republican
Incumbent: John Ensign (R) - elected in 2000
Good SEnator, easy win.
New Jersey - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Jon Corzine (D) - elected in 2000
Corzine is an bit of a slime, but it is New Jersey.. Lean to likely Dem
New Mexico - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Jeff Bingaman (D) - elected in 1982
Bingaman is safe. His only close race was in the year of the Republican Revolution, 1994.
New York - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Hillary Clinton (D) - elected in 2000
It's over.
North Dakota - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Kent Conrad (D) - elected in 1986, then in 1992 special election
Conrad by more than you think - 10% +
Ohio - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Mike DeWine (R) - elected in 1994
Dewine is the surprise "in trouble" candidate, he wins but it will be very close.
Pennsylvania - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Rick Santorum (R) - elected in 1994
Rhode Island - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Lincoln Chafee (R) - appointed in 1999
A Republican in Rhode Island, this, by definition, at best a toss up for the GOP.
Tennessee - Lean Republican
Incumbent: Bill Frist (R) - elected in 1994
GOP will hold.
Texas - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) - elected in 1993 special election
GOP will hold
Utah - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Orrin Hatch (R) - elected in 1976
Move on.
Vermont - Solid Independent
Incumbent: Jim Jeffords (I) - elected in 1988
Sanders in a walk...
Virginia - Likely Republican
Incumbent: George Allen (R) - elected in 2000
Solid GOP if Allen runs
Washington - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Maria Cantwell (D) - elected in 2000
Cantwell is very beatable, at best a mild Dem lean.
West Virginia - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Robert Byrd (D) - elected in 1958
Byrd is just getting to old, and too erratic...(let's call it the Jim Bunning effect) and the state is moving right while Byrd moves left.
Mild Dem lean if Byrd runs, GOP lean if he does not.
Wisconsin - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Herb Kohl (D) - elected in 1988
done deal...
Wyoming - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Craig Thomas (R) - elected in 1994
one word - it's Wyoming....
|
