Dems Can't Keep Losing Dixie

[The Vorlon]

A couple observations.

There has been a huge political re-alignment in thge last 20 years.  It has shifted from crushing Democratic dominance to something very close to parity.

I forget the exact numbers but there are just a shade under 20,000 state and federal elected officials in the county, and right now I think the Dems have something like 80 more positions than the GOP - out of 20,000.

The GOP Presidential average in the last 2 elections is 49.3%, the democratic average is 48.54 => Hardly a crushing advantage.

Regarding the GOP hold on Dixie... ok... so what...?

You can argue things +/- a state one way or another, but the the Dems can more or less count on the following:

D. C.                    3
Massachusetts   12
Rhode Island   4
Vermont                    3
New York                   31
Maryland                   10
Connecticut   7
California                   55
Illinois                    21
Maine                     4
Hawaii                     4
Washington   11
Delaware                    3
New Jersey   15
Total                  183

In a similar way, the GOP can more or less count on these states

Missouri                     11
Virginia                     13
Arkansas                       6
Arizona                    10
North Carolina   15
West Virginia   5
Louisiana                    9
Tennessee   11
Georgia                   15
South Carolina   8
Montana                   3
Mississippi   6
Kentucky                    8
South Dakota   3
Indiana                   11
Alaska                     3
Texas                    34
Kansas                     6
Alabama                    9
North Dakota   3
Oklahoma                   7
Nebraska                   5
Idaho                    4
Wyoming                   3
Utah                   5
Total   213

If yur a Republican, you might argue the GOP can Count on Florida and that the GOP has a real shot in Jersey and Washington.

If you a Democrat you might argue Oregon and Minnesota are base states and that Missouri, Arkansas, and Virginia are battlegrounds...

Whatever...

Neither side has a 270 anywhere close to reliable, and both sides have pretty similar EV bases to build from.

If your a Democrat, parity is a crushing disappointment, and after 40 years in the wilderness parity feels like Heaven to the GOP, but the bottom line is that it is structurally very, very close right now...

[The Vorlon]

I forget the exact numbers but there are just a shade under 20,000 state and federal elected officials in the county, and right now I think the Dems have something like 80 more positions than the GOP - out of 20,000.

I really don't see this as relevant -- at all, in fact. Some states have larger legislatures than others. Some states elect more executive positions than others.

The issue that this topic brought up was that the sunbelt is growing at a faster pace than the Democratic states in the northeast. Thus, that gives the GOP more EVs as time goes on, and more representatives.

My point, perhaps poorly expressed, is that the two parties are at a point very very close to parity right now.  The fact that they are so close, also means they will likely stay close for a while also.

An imperfect anaology to this is a college with a truly fantastic football program that is alway in the hunt for the National championship.... 

All the really great High school  football players want to go to this school when they get to college... which means they tend to STAY at the top.

The GOP and Dems are so close at all levels that they also also getting very similar shares of the :high draft choices" in terms of new faces and new organization.  This parity goes all the way down too.  The DEms have (if my memory is correct) 99xx elected state officials, while the GOP has 98xx.... parity within a % or so.