The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,660
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
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« on: April 06, 2004, 06:43:16 PM » |
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« edited: April 06, 2004, 07:54:26 PM by The Vorlon »
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Democratic States in Grave Danger:
(in order of devasting impact to the campaign)
Pennsylvania
I have Bush very marginally ahead right now
Wisconsin
Currently, at best, a dead heat, perhaps Bush is oh so slightly ahead...
Iowa
Both sides are spending heavily - that tells me, polls not withstanding, it will be close
New Mexico
Gore won by 377 votes. Flip a coin.
Oregon
I expect Kerry to prevail, even if only because Nader voters come home. Bush may make Kerry spend some money here, however.
Minnesota
If this one gets legitimately close, Kerry is in DEEP trouble...
Bush States in Grave Danger:
(in order of devasting impact to the campaign)
Ohio
IT is just about impossible to construct a (reasonable)scenario where Bush loses Ohio, and still wins the election
The GOP will go too total absolute war to save this state.
Florida
I think Bush is kinda safe actually in Florida, but again, hard to see how he wins without it.
West Virginia
A natural Democratic state. I expect it will flip back to "home" and go for Kerry.
New Hampshire
Recent polls do have Bush marginally ahead, but this is Kerry's backyard. I have to think this one is no more than 60/40 likelyhood that Bush holds.
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