Yes. Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), and Ohio (20) will decide the election. The candidate who wins two of those probably has it in the bag, and if somebody takes all three, it's over.
Florida is actually semi-safe for Bush in 2004.
Ohio, Pennsyalvania, Wisconsin, and West Virginia are where the real battle ground will be for 2004 - IMHO.
These four are all razor close right now, and I expect one candidate or the other will win all four.
It is possible that we might add Michigan to this list, but I think Michigan is likely a "bridge too far" for Bush.
I also think New Mexico/Arizona/Nevada (maybe Colorado?) might be another mini-front in the 2004 war (Where I would recomend kerry go If I were on his staff)
I think Kerry's VP choice may tell us a lot where the Dems think the battle will be.
