The Vorlon
Vorlon
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Posts: 4,660
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
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« on: August 13, 2011, 09:14:08 PM » |
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« edited: August 13, 2011, 09:16:27 PM by Does anybody else miss Bill Clinton? »
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This far out, polls of Obama versus (fill in the blank) are as much name recognition as they are an actual test ballot.
In a Presidential year if there is an incumbent on the ballot, the first test is a referendum of the sitting president. In some cases, re-election is pretty much a done deal (Think Reagan in 84, Clinton in 96) - In other cases, the game is still up for grabs.
Until the name recognition gap fades, Obama's number means more than any particular opponents total....
The general rule of thumb is if Obama is over or under 50%.
Over 50%, he will likely get re-elected,
45 (ish) % it will be a tactical race where the best campaign wins (Think Bush / Kerry in 2004)
Under 40% - He's toast....
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