Canada 2011 Predictions... if you dare

[The Vorlon]

National

Conservatives: 39
NDP: 32 (Well Done Jack)
Liberals: 19 (Bye Bye Iggy)
BQ: 5 (Bye Bye Gilles)

Quebec

NDP: 39
BQ: 26
Liberals: 16
Conservatives: 17

Ontario

Conservatives: 42
NDP: 28
Liberals: 23

Tories get more or less same seat total as 2008
Diggers get 85 ish
Grits get 55 ish
Bloq holds on to about 25 ish

If Tories > Dippers + Grits => Tory Minority
If Tories < Dippers + Grits => PM Layton

It will be very close.

[The Vorlon]

National

Conservatives: 39 (-0.6 from actual)
NDP: 32 (+1.5 from actual)
Liberals: 19 (+0.1 from actual)
BQ: 5 (-1 from actual)

Quebec

NDP: 39
BQ: 26
Liberals: 16
Conservatives: 17

Ontario

Conservatives: 42
NDP: 28
Liberals: 23

With no predictions of a Tory majority, these are the closest figures I found.

I was ~~surprised~~ by the TOTAL collapse of the Bloq..  I assumed the newness of the NDP to the province versus the established organization strength of the Bloq + PQ would allow the Blow to hold on to 25 ish seats... I was wrong...

There was also a late shift of a couple % in Ontario where the NDP dropped a bit and the Liberals and Tories firmed up a bit.  - This is (essentially) where the Tories picked up an extra 20 seats to get their majority.

The polling was horrid in Canada for this election.  If you tossed out the internet polls and the (unproven) IVR stuff, the traditional telephone based polls all said the Tories were on the bubble for a majority, and the late blip/vote splitting in Ontario put Harper over the top.

[The Vorlon]

Nanos' Sunday-only sample wasn't too far off:

Conservatives 38.7% (-0.9 from actual result)
NDP 30.5% (-0.1)
Liberals 20.9% (+2.0)
Bloc 5.0% (-1.0)
Greens 3.7% (-0.2)
Other 1.3% (+0.3)

Yes, NANOS was pretty darn close actually, he was included in the group of polls that was neither IVR nor Internet based

A lead of 8% at 38.7% was indeed dangling on the edge of a majority, and the late blip in Ontario split the vote enough to get Harper over the top.

My big gripe with the polls, in addition to  underestimating the Tories by 5% (hasn't anybody heard of a "likely voter poll" up there?) - It the extensive reporting of regional subsamples... Christ,  NANOS was sampling 100 people a day in Atlantic Canada.....  his numbers bounced around like a yo-yo because, well, he was sampling a 100 people a day....  There were no "trends".. just a lot of noise...