Just thought I'd start a poll thread....
Newest Associated Press Poll (Actually conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs)
Bush: 46%
Kerry 45%
Nader 6%
Sample size = 771 voters
Conducted March 1st-3rd 2004
This poll should be accurate +/- 3.53% 19 times out of 20
This poll should be accuarte +/- 1.8% 2 out of 3 times
The above margin of error refers only to statistical errors associated with the sample size, and assumes no additional error due to possible bias or ambiguity in the questions asked.
>>>Things Democrats will be happy about...
#1) - It is very close.
#2) - The Nader vote at 6% suggests that Kerry has room to grow on his political left. In 2000 Nader often drew in the mid single digits, however got just 2.7% on election day.
Because Nader supporters were such a small percentage of the actual voter base, good quality statistical data on how they actually voted is a bit sparse, but what data there is suggests about half ended up voting for Gore.
IF (big if) this is true, another three percent from Nader gives Kerry 48, and the lead...
#3) - Bush is under 50%. Any incumbant under 50% is in DEEP trouble, at least traditionally.
#4) - 60% of respondants feel the country is on the "wrong track" - This is a very closely watched polling number and anything under 50% "right track" is usually big trouble for the incumbant.
>>>Things Republicans will be happy about.
1) - In 2000 Bush LOST the popular vote by .52% and won the Electoral College, he's doing 1.5% better than in 2000
2) - The assorted Democrats just spent $100 million, 3 months, and endless free media coverage of their primary beating the %^%%% out of Bush, and he is still up, if only by a point. Bush still has his $100+ in the bank and can now start to pound away at Kerry who may not have the cash to fight back. (Using 10s of $millions to pound away at a candidate after he becomes the nominee but BEFORE the actual official campaign begins is EXACTLY what Clinton did to Dole in 96 BTW)
3) - The poll was of Registered voters, not "likely voters"
A republican candidate typically does 3-4 % better amoung those who actually vote versus those who are simply registered (actual voter turnout is nationally just a bit over 50%)
4) - Bush's support is more commited than Kerry's. - 37% are "strongly" supporting Bush versus only 28% who are "strongly" backing Kerry, suggesting Bush has a better chance of converting Kerry Supporters than the other way around..
http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AP_POLL_PRESIDENT?SITE=MTGRE&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULTlet the flaming begin....
